John Halama threw a no-hitter AND a perfect game in the minors, with a sparkling ERA through his 20s down there, but he wasn't a magician.
Problem is, you can't tell who is and isn't until you get them reliable strike zones called by major-league umps and hitters who can crush average pitches instead of fouling them off.
Now, John was a big-league pitcher. He had 900+ innings in the bigs because he could throw a hundred innings for you when your #5 starter went down. That's what a #6 starter is supposed to do.
Beavan is currently a #6 starter. As you say, the stuff he throws currently is not going to get any more dangerous as is. The lure with Beavan remains his velocity, or current lack of it. He threw mid 90s in high school. The Rangers didn't like his motion and like a good little soldier he modified it with their help to take all the danger out of it - and most of the velocity as well.
If he gets his velo back, finds extra bite on his breaker...
And that's why he's Fister-lite. There's promise in his #6 package of skills, and I like your call of Guthrie as an upside with better stuff. And if he doesn't find it, then he's just a Halama - a guy who can be a #5 but is not likely to wow you, can eat innings and keep you in games (especially in a pitcher's park with a good D behind him) and do it for cheap.
Beavan is on of the reasons we should have no earthly need for a Batista or Silva contract again any time soon.
The question is how you feel about him taking over for Vargas or Bedard.
~G
Q. What's the bottom line?
A. He looks ready to deliver a 100 ERA+ for the next three, four years, starting now.
I don't personally see him as having much upside, in any scenario. On the other hand, his game looks very repeatable and predictable, with an appealing "floor."
He's not a AAA pitcher. His game looks like it will work fine in the majors.
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Q. What pitcher family does he belong in?
A. James didn't write a pitcher family for guys with Beavan's game. James was classifying the top 100 pitchers of all time, and none of those threw like Beavan does.
It's not possible to become a great pitcher with Beavan's game. Which is okay. Stars & Scrubs involves two kinds of players. :- )
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Q. Still, who are the comps? How does Beavan pitch?
A. Beavan is Doug Fister Lite, as G-Money said he was.
Siggggghhhhh.... no comp exists in the AL right now that I'd be happy with. Jeremy Guthrie is a bit of an ambitious comp. Nick Blackburn is a little modest, probably, and Blackburn's more of a GB specialist. Doug Fister 2010 isn't bad, though that's back to "ambitious" again.
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Pitchers who throw like Beavan, but with more sink and groundballs, include Rick Porcello, Justin Masterson, Jake Westbrook, and Nick Blackburn.
Guys who throw like Beavan, without the heavy groundball outcomes and without its huge reliance on BABIP luck, include:
- HI - Scott Baker
- MID - Jeremy Guthrie*
- LO - Jo-Jo Reyes (or, "out of the majors," of course)
Doug Fister 2010 would have been in the HI category along with Baker. What Fister has become in 2011 is another subject.
Guthrie has better stuff than would be ideal for a comp here, but ... there aren't a lot of ML starters trying to throw like Beavan and Fister do. Most of them pound the knees for groundballs -- which I, for one, don't always care for. A lot of Blackburn types give up high BABIP's and high ERA's.
In Safeco, it may actually favor the pitcher who fans 5.0 guys, walks 2.0 and keeps the ball in the air. That's more Beavan.
It's kind of interesting - Guthrie was selected 1-22 in his draft, and Beavan 1-17 in his. A super upside scenario for Beavan would have him sharpening his stuff far enough to match Guthrie.
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Q. What makes a pitcher like this good, or bad? What is his key to success?
A. The defining characteristics of this kind of pitcher are:
- RHP with nice clean mechanics
- 60-70% fastballs at solid 89-93 velo
- Flyballs
- Breaking stuff is solid, but can't get K's with it (Colby Lewis types need not apply)
- Constantly pitching ahead in the count ... very low BB's
- Typical AB features several different FB's ... jam pitch, tease pitch on black, ladder, etc.
There are 20,000 pitchers in the minors trying to pitch like this.
The ones in the minors, and the ones suffering Jo-Jo Reyes and Nick Blackburn outcomes --- > are those whose command is usually good, guys who make not a lot of mistakes, guys who in most AB's can hit their spots.
The guys who make big money in the majors, including Joe Saunders, are those with razor-sharp command, guys who make amazingly few mistakes, guys who on an every-AB basis are making their pitches.
The difference is subtle. The good ones are just sharper. Sorry, but that's the difference in this template. You gotta be a magician to make this pedestrian game work. Fister, Baker, and Saunders are magicians.
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Comments
Problem is, you can't tell who is and isn't until you get them reliable strike zones called by major-league umps and hitters who can crush average pitches instead of fouling them off.
NPB pitchers come over into the AL, as Sasaki did, and they find out that the center of the plate is a huge "land mine" that didn't exist in their previous league. Even Felix took 2 full years to grasp that.
Then the question becomes, how well do their games work, take away their ability to score "gimme" strikes when behind in the count...
That is just a great capture of the problem, G. ... looks to me like Beavan's game works fine in the AL.