I was hoping for a full Detect-o-scan.
I've been focusing more on ISO-against as a stat to measure "blonks off the handle, or pool-cue shots off the end of the bat" as you put it.
There are guys who will not rack up huge K totals but will keep the ISO-against well under 100.
Rivera is at .081 for his 5000+ batters faced, but the only time he went over 10 K/9 was in 1996.
It's how I got initially fixated on Dominic Leone, who's now being touted by one Jack Zduriencik as well (.073 ISO-against in his first 96.0 IP).
But Taijuan is the type who has the potential to do both, and, as you mention, Farquhar as well (13.7 K/9; 0.89 ISO-against in Seattle).
There are two more bubbling up the system:
--- Luiz Gohara: 11.2 K/9; 0.46 ISO-against (only 21.2 IP, but he's just 16)
--- Carson Smith: 11.9 K/9: 0.68 ISO-against in 111.0 IP, despite getting off to a horrible start in High Desert in 2012
If you're looking for next year's Farquhar, take a look at Smith.
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Inning 3
Taijuan had enjoyed the Popup-to-SS results he'd gotten off his cutter in the 2nd. Sure enough, hard cutters get blonks in triple-decker stadiums too!
He now used a Danny Farquhar (or Danny Haren!) pitch sequence on the leadoff guy:
- Cutter
- Fastball
- Cutter
- Fastball
- Cutter
- Fastball
Repeat as necessary. Jamey Wright made a career out of launching this "Snake Tongue" L/R attack with 86 cutters and 90 fastballs. With Taijuan, add 4-7 MPH.
No swings and misses, but the batter looked overmatched. This was typical of many of Taijuan's outcomes: few swings and misses, but easy outs. In Halladay/Haren style.
That will happen when your game is pivoting around a real hard cutter. The cut fastball is not designed to produce a swing and miss; it produces blonks off the handle, or pool-cue shots off the end of the bat. Then, the flummoxed hitter can be fanned later in the game (or in his career).
.........
The Mariners misplayed THREE (3) batted balls in this inning, all of which Geoff Baker scored errors. Somehow, having to get SIX (6) outs in ONE (1) inning, the Astros scored only ONE (1) run. FELIX (felix) Hernandez would definitely be proud to hold an inning together like that.
That said, Taijuan still was not getting swings and misses, although ...
- Fastball 94-97
- Cutter 90-92 (wowwweeee)
- Splitter 88
It was interesting: when pressed to the wall, Taijuan fell back on the cutter. This is exactly what Danny Farquhar does.
High fastballs, and overhand curves, are bids for strikeouts. The cut fastball is a "safe-feeling" bid for a blonked two-hopper at somebody. It's a fundamentally conservative approach.
And it suggests that hardwired into Taijuan's brain is a real lack of greed. Also see the first inning, steering the ball into the strike zone, as opposed to going for glory strikeouts (and getting into trouble).
...........
Wait, what. Did you say splitter?
You did. More on that later.
............
Anyway. You really can't ask for more poise than that. Correction: you can't ask for that much poise.
.
Inning 4
Taijuan opened the inning with an 86 splitter, and then never threw it again. This is a classic poker strategy: play the first hand dramatically -- say with a huge bluff -- and then play the rest of the night in opposite fashion (betting tightly, for example). The first hand leaves a lasting impression.
I dunno that Taijuan intended such a sophisticated head game; he probably didn't. But a high changeup, first pitch, that's gutsy. It served to poach an 0-1 count.
The toolbox:
- Fastball 94-95, looked 96
- Yakker 75 MPH, now he was snapping it off better
- Cutter -- was not used
So, this inning, Taijuan had gone to his Doc Gooden / Josh Beckett two pitch attack. The results:
- A classic Doc Gooden whipsaw strikeout
- A feeble 4-3 groundout, when a RH poked a girly roller to 2B off a curve
- An 8-pitch walk to LH Brett Wallace, based on a few close strike calls
- A first-pitch popup on a jam fastball
Taijuan was not behind to many batters on the night. They were trying to get him early in the count, and he was around the plate. More of a Dan Haren performance than a Roy Halladay performance.
.
Inning 5
The M's staked him to a 5-1 lead going into the bottom of the 5th, and Taijuan came out throwing blizzards of fastballs to locations.
His velocity was down a bit ... but the location was really good. For example, with a 4-run lead, he kept the ball away from SS Villar, simply daring him to do something with pitches on the black:
In football, this would be called a "Three-Deep Prevent Defense." The overall results in the inning:
- Popup
- Easy groundout
- Long fly out to CF
And Wedge did well to yank Taijuan on a successful debut.
.
Dr's Diagnosis
There is a lot of detail we could get into on both sides of the ledger. Our next articles isolate his Fastball, Cutter, Yakker, and Splitter. Here, we didn't get into a serious breakdown of his arsenal. ... also, the mechanics, poise, and athletic ability make for fascinating discussion.
It was Houston, but there weren't a lot of those pitches that would have been hit by a better lineup. Houston gave Taijuan allllll kinds of credit, tried to take him the other way, but he didn't leave much for them to hit.
...........
The 30,000-foot view of the Houston game:
- Only 6 swings and misses in 70 pitches ...
- ... because of a Dan Haren-like strategy based on cutters and location
- The potential for a more aggressive, 10K game was flashed at several points
- Remarkable that Taijuan should pitch with an old man's attitude and disposition
His delivery and command are wayyyyyyyyy ahead of where they should be, and that's why Paxton and Hultzen* (I know, I know) are not up yet. The M's are massively into pitcher execution, and Taijuan's doin' it.
Taijuan's fastball will definitely be one of the league's most overwhelming fastballs; we'll explain why later. His curve and splitter have exciting potential, though he's "steering" them right now, with mediocre arm action. His cut fastball is an un-possible pitch.
He's going to make 3-4 starts, consolidate this offseason, and return to camp in 2014 as one of the AL's 20 best starting pitchers. We'll see how quickly he climbs from there.
Felix, 'Kuma and Taijuan: the Big Three is rolling. Next subject?
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Qualified pitchers with 9+ K/9 and ISO-against under .100:
2013:
Matt Harvey -- 9.6 K/9, 0.73 ISO-against
Jose Fernandez -- 9.8 K/9, 0.82 ISO-against
Anibal Sanchez -- 9.7 K/9, 0.97 ISO-against
2012:
Gio Gonzalez -- 9.3 K/9, 0.97 ISO-against
2011:
Clayton Kershaw -- 9.6 K/9, 0.91 ISO-against
Felix was close but never quite checked both boxes in the same year:
2011: 8.6 K/9, .108 ISO-against
2012: 8.7 K/9, .092 ISO-against
2013: 9.3 K/9, .118 ISO-against
Ryan did that a few times, I do believe. He also walked a bunch of guys, plunked a bunch of other guys and was prone to the bad inning...so he's not a great comp for Walker, who appears to have better command than that due to a more repeatable delivery...but I'm trying to think of big leaguers who could limit ISO against and hold high K rates.
You're right, Matt. Ryan is the only one with 9+ K/9 and under 100 ISO-against for his career. He faced over 22,000 batters.
Kershaw is at 100 on the nose at this moment.
There are only nine guys with 9+ K/9 with a minimum of 1000 IP:
1. Randy Johnson 10.6 K/9 --- .132 ISO-against
2. Kerry Wood 10.3 K/9 --- .143 ISO-against
3. Pedro Martinez 10.0 K/9 --- .123 ISO-against
4. Tim Lincecum 9.7 K/9 --- .121 ISO-against
5. Nolan Ryan 9.5 K/9 --- .094 ISO-against
6. Trevor Hoffman 9.4 K/9 --- .131 ISO-against
7. Sandy Koufax 9.3 K/9 --- .114 ISO-against
8. Oliver Perez 9.2 K/9 --- .172 ISO-against
9. Clayton Kershaw 9.2 K/9 --- .100 ISO-against