1
OTOH, Abreu had better bring it with the bat b/c it sounds like be has minimal defensive value. That drops his floor a little more (relative to the Puig and Cespedes examples).
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I haven't seen the Mariners linked with Jose Abreu, have you? That's point A. Would you rather talk about Mesut Ozil, my next soccer.com jersey? That's point B.
Ahem:
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Mt Grizzly, our resident F-500 type risk analyst, sez
You know who would hit like that in AA or A+? Carlos Peguero. And that is the downside risk - not that he hits .250-.300-.420 with 20 HR in Seattle. It's that he's a AAAA player that can never make the transition to MLB pitching. I do some risk analysis in real life and if you don't peg the downside risk properly, you will make all kinds of bad investments.
The idea that his downside is Smoak while his upside is Papi will lead someone to that $60+ million contract. If the downside is Carlos Peguero, then that figure will drop. If the upside is more like Napoli than Papi, it drops further. As Doc says, that's what they pay McNamera for. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/92957#comment-92957
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If we were spending real money, we'd have to look at the bottom 10th-percentile projection every bit as hard as the top 10th-percentile. Good stuff.
Three questions, not to counter you m'man, but actually wondering what your take would be:
1. If Abreu's got:
- A 20% chance to be something like Stanton, and
- A 20% chance to be a Betancourt type -- though Betancourt hits like an ML shortstop, not like a Quad-A player --, or a Peguero type, and
- A 60% chance to be Kendrys Morales or Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes ...
Where does that put his contract on a ROI basis? Stanton would make $200-250M on the free agent market, right? The $60M figure is 25% of that.
I know, I know ... you would want to layer out 10 slices of 10th-percentile projections, come up with a yearly value, and average them ... and then this average value would still not be the end of the discussion.
It is not as simple as saying, "Those outcomes average to a 6 x $12.5M return, so you can spend that." An average return is not necessarily the move you want to make, when filling the 25-man top floor of the talent pyramid. Stars & Scrubs is a dynamic process.
It's far too simple to say, "The average free agent costs $15M for 3 WAR, so the 2014 Seattle Mariners are fine to spend $15M for a 3 WAR third baseman." It is also far too simple to say, "Kendrys Morales gets 1.2 to 2.0 WAR per year; any salary over $6-9 million is incorrect."
The dynamics of the roster possibilities, and a player's impact on his teammates, and a million other things, must be factored in.
That said: it seems to me that Jose Abreu's, and Yu Darvish's, ROI's -- factoring in the 0 return scenario -- would average out to much more than $60M for 6 years?
There have been a few Japanese pitchers who failed to deliver on their contracts. I wonder if anybody has ever added them all up, as a group. Bet you they've delivered at least $1.50 on the dollar. Maybe not, though...
The Seattle Mariners say hello :- )
The Seattle Mariners have been known to cozy up to a bargain. I wonder if there is any link between that tendency, and their assessment of the ROI on international players.
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2. What would Billy Beane's answer be, to the objection of "Cespedes has a real good shot to be Carlos Peguero"?
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3. Any Cubans you know of, since about 1995, who have been Carlos Peguero? Here's a b-ref.com list; you can sort it by Year From and glance down the AB's column to get a quick look at all the Cubans who have played much.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
2
Peguero, 1000 AAA plate appearances: .281/.345/.514/.859, which is his best performance at any level with a reasonable number of ABs. Batting eye? .25. K rate? 32% (!). So while he has a prodigious .220 ISO, he's not scaring anybody off the plate. Even in the minors the pitchers can see the Buick-sized hole in his swing and resolve to aim there instead of out over the plate.
They miss, he goes long, but he doesn't exactly force them to throw in a hitting zone.
Abreu walks a LOT more than he Ks in his minor league. He has led his league in batting average and HRs in the same year. If he has trouble covering the plate I sure haven't seen evidence of that.
So the complaint is that his bat is too slow. Well, Chris Davis has a slow bat. Olerud had the slowest bat on his Toronto squad and yet somehow eked out a decent career. Bat speed is over-rated. Do you have to start the bat sooner to catch up to a high fastball? Sort of. If your mechanics are clean, not a lot faster. But you also keep the bat in the zone LONGER so it's easier to foul off pitches you mis-read or dink them in for hits rather than swinging through for all those strike threes.
A slower bat is NOT an indicator of trouble, not if you can read pitches quickly. We'll find out if Abreu can do that soon enough. Fast bats are prettier, like 5-tool athletes. But plenty of 5 toolers can't hit. Edgar hit just fine and his bat-speed was several notches short of electric. The extra pounds of muscle that Abreu has serve much the same function as batspeed: get the ball out of here. The rest is up to his other plate skills, which so far have served him VERY well.
What if he can’t hit the inside fastball? Man, that was a huge problem for Frank Thomas who hit THREE FIFTY while hating inside heat. Abreu stands close enough to the plate to eat a bunch of pitches in the ribs, BTW, leading his league in that category as well. So his method of dealing with the inside fastball on the hands is to take it in the back and get on first base. Or because of the risk of that, force the pitcher to throw it more over the plate where he can turn on it. It’s not like he doesn’t deal with these things. We just don’t know how he deals with them on the major league level.
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I dislike Cuban hitters. I'm on record as describing the products of the island's hitting discipline and lack of resources in less than flattering terms, especially once they come into money.
I like Abreu. His swing is fine. His power is great. Is his pitch-recognition up to snuff? If not, he's gonna hurt, Batista-style, for a while. If it is... look out.
Compared to throwing money at Nelson Cruz on the bet that he'll survive BOTH a lack of PEDs and leaving the home-run pit in Texas...
Gimme the Cuban.
~G
3
...when used as a comp for Abreu in some of the articles. "Billy Butler has never once been worth even 3 WAR..."
Meanwhile, he's the indispensable cog for Kansas City, beloved and valued beyond all reason by them. I'm sure they just misunderstand his WAR value.
It can't all be pretty fielding. Somebody's gotta hit. I agree he doesn't have the ability to make up for a bad bat with a glove (a la Ackley at 2B or whatever) but I'm not torn up about that, even for the team that gave up the most defensive runs in baseball.
Abreu is either playing 1B or DH. WAR for DHs is not a real thing. The defensive negative that people give DHs to reflect their actual zero impact on that side of the game is created for comparisons between players and for contract estimation, not to represent value on the field. A DH has none, therefore his value is zero. He can neither help you nor hurt.
So I don't care what WAR value my DH carries if he's hitting, because his only job is TO hit. If Abreu is a first basemen then it matters, because he's fielding balls and stretching for throws to keep runners off base. Frank Thomas was a terrible 1B too, but I'd take him right now without blinking.
Not that Abreu is Thomas, just that at a certain point, fielding is a lesser concern. Getting 35 homers from a 1B or a DH along with a carton of doubles and extra sides of singles and walks is just fine, however many times Medusa looked at his glove.
~G
4
If Abreu is sorry with the glove, we should just sign Raul and save $70 million. Raul has starred in the American League and is ours for the taking.
Raul is the all time home run king of Safeco Field and holds many of Safeco's batting records.
He hit the first grand slam in Safeco history, he has the most home runs in Safeco history by a mile (pre 2013 he was at 66, he may be over 80 now), and he will play here almost for free. In addition, he does not get old thanks to a mutant gene, he has retractable claws, he has good makeup, and what you see is what you get.
All that glitters is not gold;
Often have you heard that told:
Many a man his life has sold
But my outside to behold:
Gilded tombs do worms enfold
Had you been as wise as bold,
Your in limbs, in judgment old,
Your answer had not been in'scroll'd
Fare you well: your suit is cold.
5
As an Alaskan and an owner of multiple guns, I can tell the blog that hunters have one or two guns that they actually kill things with, and all the other ones exist to take out and fondle once in a while. This is a universal constant of hunters. It is not reasonable to quit using a trusted old gun just because you own a gun that might be better. Suppose your life is on the line, and you are being charged by a hippo. Are you going to quit on your trusty old .375 Holland and Holland that you know is going to do substantial damage, in favor of an untried .458 Nitro Express just because the caliber is bigger? Perish the thought.
Here we have our own Cuban sensation who 1. Hits very well. 2. Does not Field. 3. Does so in the American League. 4. Is a real switch hitter, i.e. does not have platoon splits, and 5. Would sign with the Mariners for less than any other team. Of course I'm talking about Kendrys Morales. If we're talking about taking on the Big 5, I'd rather have him than any number of untested big guns that might jam at the most unfortunate moments.
If your MOTO bat bombs, you might as well just concede the season. While an Abreu signing might have been a fun experiment in years past, the Mariners are too close to contention to tinker with offensive unknowns. What will happen when Abreu runs into Sonny Gray's curveball? He may be dead meat.
Food for thought.
6
Gimme my line back! :)
I'm with you on this G, as you have read.
And my Pegs comments were not to say that I think he's about to leap a plateau, but that he has such a huge amount of power that if he jumps a K/Contact plateau, even a little one, he's a cheap mashing/K'ing DH/OF. I'm holding him and giving him a bunch of ST AB's.
But the Cuban would be a great buy. If he's only a 1.5 WAR bat, how much do you lose, really.
7
My ideas have been put down, better than I was thinking them, by you in a comment. Often times I've just got nothing left and say nothing. I think about a lot of these things very similar to you. I think I do come up with some crazier ideas (maybe just to say something new) and am wrong more often. I could be wrong about that. Anyway.
What he said.
8
I'm trying to visualize a trial attorney with a .375 H&H. That's what, 4,000+ ft-lb's? What, do you hold it down by your hip to fire it?
Who knew that when the revolution came, you guys would be shooting back.
9
Had been having trouble deciding a preference before. It seems to me the upside would ignite this offense. Especially if you're talking Ellsbury/Kemp/Choo/Granderson/Beltran/other too, for the outfield. I don't think it precludes Raul as backup DH/1b/emergency OF/C. Injuries happen and he is capable in enough ways that he can be very useful even if you're not planning on him DHing most days going into the season. He's my Javier. Javier was the team leader, from what I've heard. I see plenty of reason to invest in him without relying on him to do heavy lifting. If he continues to anyway, he'll get playing time. If there's an injury, he's there with a higher baseline instead of scrambling for the current Broussard, Perez, Branyan, whoever else has been chased down while expending more talent.
I'd love to see both with Kemp for next year. The depth does matter as last year revealed again. Raul playing in the outfield might not be so bad beside Ellsbury, though. I'd still list it as emergency unless it showed well in spring and early trials. If Beltran and Abreu the 3 best bats would be R/L/S, same as Kemp/Morales with Seager being the Lefty. I wouldn't mind Abreu/Kemp R/R/L anyway with so many other decent lefties except the most likely power bats we have are Zunino and Peterson, both RH as well. I'm preferring that a switch hitter/low platoon split is one of the big guys, that is Beltran or Morales, Ellsbury, Granderson or Kemp. Can't say exactly about Abreu or Shinnosuke Abe's splits. But if either were brought in with one of the previous 5 I'd be pretty happy. Except both Cuban DH/1b unless trading Smoak. I'm happy sticking with Smoak, I think.
10
Like you, for me it's been countless times that one of his posts made mine utterly lesser and redundant or unnecessary. We all know that's not at all his motive, but he's just so good at capturing and making points.
11
MLB Rumors now has the ballpark cost for Abreu over $70 million for 5 years.... that is more than Morales...Change anything?
Foe me, I'm still in at $70 Million, but any over.. no, I'll just try to get Morales and someone cheap to bat against lefties.
12
I know even that is unprecedented. Anything under $15m annual still seems like a discount if you believe his mid range protection to be 30 HR and say .270/.360/.500. If his upper end even approaches the "best hitter in the world" some say is possible, isn't that worth closer to $30m annually? I really don't think bust is a very strong possibility from videos I've watched and things I've read. I'm not finding much for projections, but 4 straight years of .140-.150 points of BB are difficult to downgrade too much. My guess at the mid range stat line may be off, but that's why I went with .90 of BB. The Ryan Howard comp would be pretty close to that stat line career. The only projections I've found are actually higher than that anyway.
13
Most lawyers can shoot, drive a boat or plane, and are generally more prepared for the breakdown of society than your average pro wrestling fan. Did you think that when the war on lawyers starts that they will try to solve it with temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions?
The lawyer free world is an apocalyptic escapism fantasy genre started by Steven Spielberg. In reality, Genaro would get away, have T-Rex euthanized and then sue everybody.
Still, if that war does start, I vacillate as to which side I'll fight on.
14
You'd think that Doc would understand the inherent stability of lawyers' regimes from his thirteen years of suffering under Howard and Chuck. Baseball people come and go, but the lawyers remain irregardless of whether they are really the problem.
15
Dagnabit, I disappear into a project for a few days and I miss the most interesting post of the offseason. At least the project got green-lit. No small feat in 4Q, that.
There were reportedly six GM's that were in at $60+ million. Lots of skeptics.
It's curious that the White Sox went so hard. This is reportedly their only off season move.