Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Scott Van Slyke, OF

Best of all possible worlds… for the Dodgers, that is

Posted by

10/27/14

Q. How, in the name of all that is decent and holy in Safeco, can this RH Bluto template be so popular with Seattle sabermets?

A. I've got no idea.

Q. You have an opinion about everything. Why not about a 160 OPS+ hitter.

A. I don't mean it as hyperbole. I mean it literally. I got no idea why people like Scott Van Slyke so much. Everybody does. It's awesome. You haven't lived until you take your teenage daughter to a Killers concert and watch her adulate them like they were the Who.

Back in college, our garage band consisted of three lifelong buds and a drummer we met at a party. We all finally went to see a (very minor) pro manager. He was pretty interested. Our drummer floored us: absolutely deadpan, he asked the manager incredulously, "What do you SEE in these guys' MUSIC?!"

The drummer was cool enough that everybody let it go. Dr. D has little hope that you'll do the same on his Van Slyke incredulity.

Q. Are you having a go at one of your co-authors here? You've already burned any currency you ever had.

A. He knows where we stand with each other. And doesn't know where I live, so there is absolutely no issue when it comes to retribution. And considering his career, no concern over net rats' opinions in the first place.

I'm just sayin', Scott Van Slyke, ain't. I mean it in a good way.

Q. What's wrong with a 160 OPS+? I know a few Mariners who don't sport quite that statline.

A. Nothing's wrong with a 100 OPS+, this being the Mariners, except that...

Well, take out a #2 pencil, kiddies. Guess the reason that Dr. D is cynical (not skeptical) about Van Slyke holding up:

Van Slyke's majesty was done in 212 AB's
He takes about 0.7 geologic epochs to get his front foot to the ground, much less his "wrapped" bat to the zone
So soft slop low is fine, but good heat up in the zone is kryptonite...
... Witness career .600+ SLG against soft-tossers, .300-plus against harder throwers
He's feasted on a diet of NL lefties (Mattingly uses him in a platoon)
If you just joined us, 6'5" 250-pound strikeout kings hit slow LH stuff better than hard RH stuff
He always flunked out badly in his first go at a minors level
.600 minors SLGs were after being held back a grade
Bah humbug
97% of STATS AOL members consider Van Slyke a bum. So drop it already
None of the above
All of the above

All the above says, "do not leave out in the sun" to me, but this is an inclusive forum. If you really can't live without a Corey Hart (with less HIT ability) roaming LF, well, at least he'll only cost Taijuan Walker. Nelson Cruz woulda cost $8M and a "stay clean" commercial. Looks like a no-brainer to me.

Q. Surely you like his BB's?

A. Van Slyke is a big, hurkin', scary, pitch stalker. No doubts there. But do you remember what Corey Hart looked like, taking pitches against AL West assassins, when he had less than his very best timing?

Enjoy.

Q. If Nelson Cruz was ebola, why is this guy the ... um ... cure to ebola? Cruz and Van Slyke do seem kinda similar to me.

A. Nelson Cruz was discovered already...

:- ) C'mon. Dr. D is being curmudgeonly even by his own sorry standards. There's a case for Van Slyke, but he looks like a guy who's going to get booked to me.

If you could pick him up for Carter Capps, that's one t'ing. But like Mojician says, Friedman is not known for giving up 160+ OPS players for Carter Capps. That were true even if Van Slyke's card didn't say EARLIEST FREE AGENT: WHEN RUSSELL WILSON IS BLACK ENOUGH.

Q. Russell Wilson is fast, and so is Van Slyke. Fangraphs has him for +37 runs per 150 games in LF last year.

A. My own first laugh tonight: when I typed that line. (Yes, really.) Van Slyke's speed score is about the same as Justin Smoak's. But at least the Fan Report has his first step and speed both in the 30's. On the other side of the ledger, he does have a triple in 455 career AB's.

:- ) He can keep his OF glove in his locker, if it's me. But any fan of Van Slyke's defensive future, who ever panned Mike Morse, owes him an apology.

Q. If you could actually analyze for two seconds, what would you expect from Van Slyke in Safeco in 2015?

A. Oh ... .220/.310/.430. At DH. There's upside. I'm guessing the trade cost wouldn't look too snuggly-cute in June.

... gun to my head? Maybe I'm overstating a skosh to underline a point. James used to do that, before he got too close to the front office and had to act all respectful-like. I notice Bill's grammar took an ugly turn for the better, too. That's what I don't like.

Q. Who were those two OF free agents that Bat571 listed as "optimal"?

A. Gotta love those classifications of "optimal," "sub-optimal fallback," and "Best of All Possible Worlds," don'cha? When you've got a Naval aircraft-carrier ace laying out your OF options, you know that either al Jazeera TV, or the Orcs, are going down instan-ter. Best of All Worlds, baby.

Bat has Michael Cuddyer (as a starter) and Alex Rios (as a rotational guy) as optimal. He points out many things I hadn't thought of, such as Victor Martinez being an M's style family man and the Andrew Miller rail gun. It's quite a read.

As BOAPW trade targets in the OF, he ticks off (on his fingers, not in real life) Stanton, Kemp, and Bautista, while acknowledging that you cannot expect al-Qaeda to surrender and hold out its wrists for cuffing the way that Mikhail Gorbachev did back in the U.S.S.R.

Q. What's the most Stars-and-Scrubs staging island here, in terms of climing the big A and planting our flag on it? Optimal world, not BOAPW.

A. We'll hand the mike to Bat571:

The signing of Free Agents is a tricky business best done quickly and decisively. If Mather gets ownership’s agreement to $50M+/yr in budget increases (from about an ~$85M baseline) to allow signing VMart, Lester, Miller, Beimel, and Rios, things could be really rosy next year.

Lower that by $10M and it might mean Butler instead of VMart, or Young instead of Lester. Still not bad.

Not bad at all,

Dr. D

Blog:

POTD

Comments

Sorry, VS never a platoon bat

Whether you look at 2014 or career stats, Van Slyke has never been used as a platoon bat. His ABs are as close as one could get between LH/RH pitching. It may be that he has faced more hard throwers (LH or RH), but he doesn't have an extreme split. Yes, he's better vs. LHP but would have still been one of our better hitters vs RHP. Even if used here in a limited role, he's still better than what we have and is club controlled through 2019. If he can be reasonably acquired from our excess MI/RP, I'd do it. Still, it is appropriate to ask, if he is so good, why couldn't he get more playing time at the expense of Ethier and Crawford? Is it just that they are paid more, and so entitled?

Late to the dance

Back in high school one of the keys was figuring which shapely adorable to ask to the Homecoming Dance before the other dudes did.
Wait too long and you get shut out. I knew that refrain.
Van Slyke was last year's shapely adorable, because so few people had figured out just how much of a hottie he was.
'14 changed that: Now he's on the Homecoming Court and all the guys recognize his hotness.
I was all in, totally in lust, smittin', hot to trot with him last year. Now he's a bit more expensive and I'm not sure I want to spend that much on this date.
Don't get me wrong: Doc is missing this one to some degree, Van Slyke can hit. Oh, this season's BABIP probably doesn't get repeated often, but he was a dang fine offensive player in '13 running a low BABIP. He's decently athletic, plays 1B and COF (better than Hart) and he's what we HOPED Hart would be with the bat. IF Smoak hit like him we would all swoon.
If he was cheap, I would buy him in a hurry. He's not cheap any longer. I would gladly take him and I even suggested we go after both he and Kemp, but I'm not sure LA is selling, and certainly not cheaply in a seller's market.
If you could get him for Taylor it would be the thing to do. If I could get him for Ackley I might really think about it. LA going to sell high, however.....if they sell.
Scott Van Slyke is a perfect Earl Weaver type of player, Doc. Weaver would get 350-450 PA's out of him, slicing and dicing the matchups. He would rip. That's high enough praise for me. In short, for the right price I'm way in. But the price is richer than it was a year ago. Therein lies the concern.
I think I would rather send 'em Ackley or Saunders and get Kemp and $7M in return. But on this I will ponder.....

Mostly agreed with Doc on this one.

I've been trying to pin down who Van Slyke reminds me of in the game - I have concluded that he is sort of...Jay Buhner-ish. I miss Buhner...don't get me wrong. But I am not giving up tip top prospects to acquire Buhner.

Not sure

Matty,
Aren't we supposd to hope our top prospects become a Buhner? Isn't that the point?
If Ackley could get Van Slyke I would jump in. Ditto Taylor (if we were sending Ackley or Saunders elsewhere for something). If Blash and Alex Jackson could get him, I would be all in.
But I'm not sure LA doesn't want an Ackley AND a Wilhelmson, or some such.
I think he stays.
But he would look nice in Teal, for the right deal.
The no-brainer deal came and went last year.

I'd flip Ackley...but not Taylor

...and I would definitely not flip Alex Jackson...and especially not Alex Jackson AND Jabari Blash (each of whom I think might be a better player than Van Slyke).

That's just it

That's just it - VanSlyke appears to be a gettable trade commodity. The Dodgers have a surplus of guys in the mix and one would presume that he won't take top talent to get. Medina or Furbush? I'm in. Top talent like Walker? Moving on.

Why Trade Him?

I'm trying to figure out why the Dodgers would trade a player, supposedly that good, that's under team control through 2019. They have a boatload of expensive OF talent that they should be trying to move and keep the young phenom. Just saying.

Me and Van Slyke

Been thinking a bit about how to answer this one. It doesn't look like I'm going to convince the unconvinced, but I want to clarify some of the discussion as best I can. I do like for ideas to be treated with the respect they deserve, so I decided to try to see if I can engender some respect for this particular one.
First of all, I'm not saying, and don't believe I have said Scott Van Slyke is THE answer to the Ms offensive problems or should be the M's full-time RF. I believe the way LA has used him works pretty well, although a 100 or so more PAs would probably be worth it. What I have said is that he meets part of the M's NEED for RH power, particularly against LH relief pitching, by being a part-time player who can spell Ackley, Saunders, and Morrison without any fall-off in offensive performance, and very little fall-off defensively. Again, he would OPTIMIZE a roster spot quite nicely. Would I be Candide and say the Best of All Possible Worlds? Well, if he hit like 2014 in 100 more PAs for the Ms, maybe so.
Pardon me if I disagree strongly with the assertion that Van Slyke is slow and a poor outfielder. I have watched enough LAD games, listened to enough games on radio feed, and seen enough video that I am satisfied that SVS is a decent fielder able to cover any of the three outfield slots, as well as 1B, just as he has been used by the Dodgers. Vin Scully seems to think he's adequate-to-good, with a high likelihood of making the RIGHT play, even when his range isn't that of Puig's -- he hits the cutoff man and generally plays SMART baseball. That's worthy of respect even if he doesn't have Puig's skill-set.
The same can be said offensively. I have looked at game logs in detail, and what I see is a guy who has started slow at every level of play, and then learned how to make the most of his skills. He may be, like the famous John Kruk quip "I'm not an athlete, I'm a ballplayer!", but he always seems to ultimately make the most of his skills. Again, he's considered a decent, if somewhat conservative baserunner, but hits triples and steals bases. I'd say from my observation he's at least in Jason Bay or Logan Morrison's class as a runner -- he'd crawl up Smoak's back following him around the basepaths. He has a galumphing way of running and awkward slide technique that I have said reminds me of Jay Buhner - and I think that still is a fair comparison.
Is he Buhner with the bat? Well, not really, at least so far. But even the triple slash you quote would have placed him 4th on the Ms - behind Cano, Seager and Saunders, and just ahead of LoMo - ALL of whom, not incidentally, hit LH. Could the Ms have used that from the right side? How about the .297/.386/.524/.910 he actually hit in LA? Now Steamer projects a .239/.324/.406/.730 for next year, which would be slightly below your prediction and also slightly below LoMo's 2014. That's still a 110 wRC+, while his career average is 134 and he put up a 160 this past year. So I think any argument that he wouldn't contribute fails to hold water. Is he THE answer? No, but he's a possibly big contribution towards it.
Now the cost -- aye, there's the rub. Last year he probably could have been had for Franklin - we eventually got Austin Jackson instead. I think that is about fair value. Now, that would be Taylor straight up. But LA has a new GM/President of Baseball Ops that might (will probably) drive a harder bargain. But, the latest rumour is he is trying to get Ben Zobrist for the Dodgers. Obviously, he is trying to hedge his bets on Hanley Ramirez leaving and Arruebuena and/or Guerrero not being up to MLB duty yet. But once again, the M's might be able to help him. Besides the BP arms LAD needs, and the infield they want to strengthen, might the Ms have something Tampa Bay could use that is excess to the Ms?
I think the Ms will end up paying a premium if they try to trade for Van Slyke. How much is the issue. Taylor + Medina I would do without regret, and maybe a minor leaguer, too. But much higher than that and I would pass, too. My point is, and has been, that he would provide --- at reasonable cost --- a way for the Ms, with substantially the same roster as today, to be more effective over the long run of a season. Very few RH power hitters who have passed the MLB(tm) test are as versatile in the field as SVS has proven himself. Ben Zobrist is obviously better, and a switch-hitter to boot, but just as obviously more expensive, which would demand more playing time to justify the expense. And Scott is already 28 years old, so he's not exactly destined for improvement. But what he has been grinding out so far would be fine for the Ms in their need for RH power AND positional flexibility.
Someone said the Dodgers can't play 6 outfielders - quite so! If they want to keep Kemp AND Van Slyke, that's certainly their right. I just hope that JackZ is putting himself in the front of the line for either one of those guys IF LA decides to make some roster room.

All of that said....

I still suspect the Ms will sign Alex Rios, as long as it's not too many years, because he's an FA that doesn't cost any prospects. He's got less power than some alternatives, and is less versatile, so you'd have to keep Saunders to allow for the versatility of using him late in games, but he's been a decent RF and hitter whom I'd expect would bounce back to close to his 1H 2014 form.

No, the apology is all mine :- ) … here are Van Slyke's splits

Start by understanding that 72% of all 2014 at-bats were against RHP. 23,576 AB's against lefties, 59,546 AB's against righties -- 28% of all were vs. lefties.
Van Slyke wasn't used in a strict platoon, of course, but in 2014 he was targeted heavily against LHP:
vs Handededness
PA
SLG
BABIP
RH
116
.416
.413 (!)
LH
130
.630
.377
The split was vast! And the only reason it wasn't vast-er was because he was very lucky against RHP.
He wasn't strictly platooned, but ... did he feast on lefties in 2014? Clearly.
........
He slugged .673 against soft tossers, as you can see at this link, and .300+ against the rest.
........
I'm not saying Van Slyke is Carlos Peguero. He is not. But the holes in his swing are showing up in the stat splits.

Van Slyke nabbed for Medina? And put in a jobshare? I'm GIDDY

I'd grab that so fast you wouldn't see my arm move.
It says here that the Dodgers would want frontline talent, and that Van Slyke comes in as a 550-AB LF or not at all. But if that's not right, of course we have a different conversation. :- )

Good stuff guys.

If Van Slyke is used in an Earl-style rotation?!

++ What I have said is that he meets part of the M's NEED for RH power, particularly against LH relief pitching, by being a part-time player who can spell Ackley, Saunders, and Morrison without any fall-off in offensive performance, and very little fall-off defensively. Again, he would OPTIMIZE a roster spot quite nicely. ++
:: gasp :: If Van Slyke can be brought in, and given 300-350 AB's against 55% lefty pitching, I'd swoon away with the vapors. Oh man.

++ Pardon me if I disagree strongly with the assertion that Van Slyke is slow and a poor outfielder. I have watched enough LAD games, listened to enough games on radio feed, and seen enough video that I am satisfied that SVS is a decent fielder able to cover any of the three outfield slots, as well as 1B, just as he has been used by the Dodgers. Vin Scully seems to think he's adequate-to-good, with a high likelihood of making the RIGHT play, even when his range isn't that of Puig's -- he hits the cutoff man and generally plays SMART baseball. That's worthy of respect even if he doesn't have Puig's skill-set.++
Cool Bat. I haven't watched him at all. I'm just going off his SPD score, his Dodger fan ratings, and the fact that he's the size of the Cheops pyramid. If he can play an average corner OF, so much the better. Against 50-50 lefties* I want his bat, period.

++ Now the cost -- aye, there's the rub. Last year he probably could have been had for Franklin - we eventually got Austin Jackson instead. I think that is about fair value. Now, that would be Taylor straight up. But LA has a new GM/President of Baseball Ops that might (will probably) drive a harder bargain. But, the latest rumour is he is trying to get Ben Zobrist for the Dodgers. Obviously, he is trying to hedge his bets on Hanley Ramirez leaving and Arruebuena and/or Guerrero not being up to MLB duty yet. But once again, the M's might be able to help him. Besides the BP arms LAD needs, and the infield they want to strengthen, might the Ms have something Tampa Bay could use that is excess to the Ms? ++
A bullpen arm as the key to the deal - even if Maurer or Furbush - and Van Slyke as a rotational player, BOOM. I'm in!

++ I think the Ms will end up paying a premium if they try to trade for Van Slyke. How much is the issue. Taylor + Medina I would do without regret, and maybe a minor leaguer, too.++
Totally agree that this is debatable and reasonably balanced, since those guys are totally surplus for us (and Van Slyke is definitely not). Chris Taylor is under club control until eternity, as is Van Slyke, so yeah.
My tongue-in-cheek article above notwithstanding. 350 AB's of Van Slyke would be a very cool way to address the M's need for RH power.
Cheers,
Jeff

Good against soft tossers and power pitchers?

Thanks for the link, though I think you were looking at "the rest" incorrectly. Against Power (top third of pitcher in the league in K's plus walks) he slugged .463 (.838 OPS), but it was against the Avg P/F (middle third of K's plus walks) that he slugged only .313. He just needed to avoid (or improve against) the middle third. And while his slugging was down vs RHP (relative to vs LHP), he still OPS'd .767 against them, which amounts to a MOTO bat in Seattle.

...keep Saunders to allow for the versatility...

Exactly! Isn't that the heart of what's been discussed here religiously?
Ackley...Jackson...Saunders...Van Slyke...Morrison...Cuddyer...Jones. Isn't that a nice mix and match recipe? This is the Billy Beane approach--but in my opinion, done with better players.
With Kivlehan, Peterson, Blash, Choi, Montero and the other Jackson stacked up, awaiting space on the runway.
Onward and upward!

Had a chance to break down his swing?

;- ) He has a big leg kick, a big bat wrap, and a natural loop to knee-high.
His hot/cold zone results also reflect this.
When lefties come in with meatballs, he'll lose the ball quick. The question -- not in my mind, but in scouts' too -- is whether he can cover the strike zone up and down, and back to front. Especially when the Sonny Grays and Jeff Samardzijas have a chance to really prep up for him before a 14-AB, 3-game series.
........
Right, he might be better than what we got in any case. I'm mostly arguing, don't trade Taijuan for this guy and then pencil in a big statline. Used more judiciously, against mostly lefties, he'd be cool.
:: daps ::