Cruz had his near career year at exactly the right time, didn't he? He had basically no home/away split. His road numbers were very comparable to Branyan's overall #'s in '09. Would that be a nice addition. But over the last 5 years, he's basically a .250-.305-.465 road hitter. Safely figure on that for us. The safe bet. Your exactly right, Doc, that .465 number would play nicely for us, wouldn't it. But it would need big bat help, as well.
Check out Napoli: Somehow his road numbers were better than his home #'s as a Ranger. No wonder he's hit well elsewhere.
Safe bet is 22-24 homers. 1-3 on that line. 32-34 homers is 4-1. 41 homers? 10-1, Doc.....Maybe. Pay him $48M for 4 years and you'll get 110 homers. Something like that, anyway. It has value. More value than Morales? I'll take Morales, I think. Can you get 'em both for 4x$20M total?
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Q. Does anybody like the idea of Nelson Cruz?
A. The Mariners like the idea. In fact, it's gaining traction.
As is the idea that the Mariners have more, not less, information than we do.
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Q. "If you can't explain something simply, you don't understand it well enough." Explain, very simply, why the Seattle internet thinks of Nelson Cruz as something brown and unpleasant.
A. People think of HR and RBI as "irrelevant."
GM's do not.
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Q. Shouldn't we scoff at RBI? In what way is it a repeatable skill?
A. Actual GM's pay much, much more for RBI than Fangraphs would. And actual GM's pay much, much less for "soft WAR" players (::coughFigginscough::) than Fangraphs says they should.
Actual GM's pay a premium for WAR produced from inside the batter's box.
Nelson Cruz is just the latest little theater of war in this macro debate.
It would be one thing if people in Seattle -- blogs in other cities are different! -- said, "I think HR and RBI are way overrated." That's one thing. It's another thing to say that they are totally irrelevant, and by extension, every person who values them is ---> stupid.
These things, Mr. Schneebly, will test your brain, and your mind, and your head.
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Look, there are people in the middle, people who are open to listening to both (1) Fangraphs and (2) actual MLB shot-callers. Speaking to those people now: it helps to think in terms of "soft" or "unproven" skills, and "hard" or "proven" skills.
UZR is often a soft skill; it often doesn't repeat itself. Part-time production, such as John Jaso's, often doesn't repeat itself.
Kendrys Morales' skills, whatever they may be, are replicable. If a player has done it over the course of 155 games, from the batter's box, and done it against good pitchers who were having good days and who were prepared for Kendrys, then that's different from John Jaso sneaking up on people.
Nelson Cruz can rake. He raked last year, and he'll rake next year. GM's pay for that.
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Q. What would Dr. D's case against Cruz be?
A. He's not a franchise bat; he's just a good one, like Morales is, and like Morales, everything he does outside the batter's box --- > has to be subtracted from his value.
I don't care for Nelson Cruz' 5.5 runs created per 27 outs. If that's your big calling card, that's not quite good enough for me. Morse, for example, put up a 6.5 and a 7.2 in Washington.
5.5 RC/27, and then you have the defensive, etc., liabilities, that's not a player to get carried away with. (Not that the Mariners are getting carried away with him; they have been linked to (1) Beltran and (2) then Cruz.
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Q. Explain, in very simple terms, under what circumstances Mariners fans would wind up being happy with Cruz.
A. If he were the second bat in, and he helped solve the [big fat hairy vs-LHP] problem, and the M's did good stuff in addition to Cruz.
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Q. Explain under what circumstances Mariners fans would wind up delighted with Cruz.
A. It would wind up being delighted with Cruz if he had the breakout year that BaseballHQ has been gingerly predicting for him. Remember being delighted with Russell Branyan?
In 2013, Cruz had a "Bill James Breakout": he hit 41 homers and had 112 RBI, except that he stopped after 109 games. In the 1980's, James made a living pointing out pro-rated stats for guys who had short seasons.
That isn't conjecture, upside, or anything like that. 41 homers, and 112 RBI, is what Cruz just did. Camoflaged. I get the idea that some Mariners fans have forgotten what 41 homers look like. Think Bret Boone 2001.
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Q. I thought Cruz just had the one monster year?
A. Excuse me, Nelson Cruz has slugged over .500 every year he has been in the big leagues. Except one time.
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Q. Who are comparable hitters?
A. Mike Morse, that's a good call.
And that is essentially the M's idea, we're sure. Let's try this Morse thing again: this time with a guy who will probably succeed (p > .80).
Other loosely-comparable hitters: Paul Konerko, Jay Bruce (almost identical), Adam Jones, Kendrys Morales ... Josh Hamilton has posted a .275/.335/.510 statline the last four years inclusive, compared to Cruz' career .275/.325/.495.
The White Sox have ridden Konerko as their "straw that stirs" for what, 15 years. His career slash line: .280/.355/.490. Many years, such as 2010's run, Konerko was pretty much the only hitter they had.
Shandler's still telling people that Cruz has a 35-homer year in him.
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Q. What about his playing in Texas? His career SLG is 100 points higher at home?
A. Worry about road splits when the home dimensions are converging with the player's skill set. As Cool Papa reminds, we went through this last winter -- to Dr. D's amazement, other blogs were assuring us that Justin Upton was an Arizona illusion.
Nay verily. It seemed obvious that Upton's physical strength transcended the park.
Well, Cruz'? Here, check this article on his 484-footer at Anaheim. I mean, sometimes a little flavor text is more convincing than numbers. Was Russell Branyan a Safeco illusion, as far as HR capability?
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. It seems to Dr. D that the Mariners are a little too shrill about solving their LHP problems. They suffered all year, and they've got a migraine ... let's switch maladies. Do you know how hard it is to think when you've just been punched in the stomach?
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And they're not as desperate for "legitimate" hitting as they were a year or two ago; they hit 188 homers last year, as Howard Lincoln pointed out to us.
Morse, last year, was a sensible attempt to put on a wool scarf when standing at the bus stop in 35-degree weather.
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Comments
The Warm Weather Hitter.
I'm not good at numbers (actually, I'm just lazy. I was a good math student when it counted...), but anecdotally speaking I think there's a severe bleh-factor of warm weather hitters in Seattle. For some reason, it sticks out in mind that players hit well in Peoria, immediately hit a wall in Seattle and then start warming up with the weather. Even Felix seemed to suffer this in the past.
I'd love to see numbers run on an angle like that... Because with a Dominican like Cruz, I can't shake off the Adrian Beltre Experience.
I was something of an anti-Cruz but this softened me up a bit. I'm already in favor of bringing Kendrys back at a reasonable rate. I think the Rangers kind of look on Cruz like the M's do Morales. Both probably over-rate them. Their attraction to the M's probably results from the fan base screaming for big bats during the 2010-2012 off-seasons. Cruz has one positive attribute not widely perceived by M's fans but which is appreciated by the Rangers, he is a clubhouse favorite, his teammates like him and want him back. His excuse for the PED violation was that he had some rare illness (which he named but I'm unfamiliar with) that caused him to lose 40 pounds during the off-season and he took them to help him regain his strength. The way he stated it made it somewhat believable to me. His bat is as good as Ellsbury's, if not better. It's all the other stuff he's crap at. He'll probably get something like 3/$45MM and Ellsbury will be closer to 6/$145MM. I have a hard time seeing the skills/value/time difference worth $100MM or so.
... come by more often, that is.
I count 10 assertions in your post, and I'm on board with either 9 or 10 of them. :- ) The 10th being the general concept of asking "Ellsbury or Cruz?," which is a novel and interesting way to pose the M's a dilemma. They're such different ideas. But yeah.
The national blogs are saying that the M's are out on Ellsbury, already. Don't know if they're right.
That's taken as a given in Seattle - it was hyped every year with Beltre; they used to talk about it a lot with Edgar - wouldn't at all surprise to see Cruz do exactly the same ...
I stop by each day after perusing SSI. Great addition to the Seattle baseball blog-o-sphere.http://www.nasorb.com/tag/mini-morsels/ --- by maqman