Seattle Sports Insider

Level 101 Grok: Marlon Byrd

A cosmetic change, as Dr. D sees it

Posted by

7/14/14

Q. What's the bottom line here?

A. No bottom line here. This is just a first impression of Marlon Byrd, WITHOUT any (of my own) detailed analysis driving it.

Q. So, like we said. What's the bottom line here?

A. For me, Byrd is a cosmetic change. Not unlike the Cheney merry-go-round.

I wouldn't play Byrd in front of Michael Saunders; I sure as shootin' would play him in front of either Chavez or Ackley, or "DH Surprise Stew." :: shrug ::

Q. Do you agree that he's "Nelson Cruz Lite"?

A. Spectator gives us 4 articles' worth of indisputable facts and figures, and then reasonably concludes two things:

He's Nelson Cruz lite
He has chosen to become Nelson Cruz lite

I'm not disputing Jim, of course; Ron Shandler had precisely the same take on Marlon Byrd. "Sacrificed contact % for PWR."

From my seat in section 339, there is a WHALE of a lot of difference between 40-120 upside (like Nelson Cruz always had) and 25-85 upside (which is the ceiling for Marlon Byrd at his age). How many guys do we need with 25-85 upside? Don't Hart, and LoMo, and Smoak, and Montero, and Saunders, and ?, have the potential to hit like that for the two months remaining?

Dr. D only just barely wanted Nelson Cruz as a member of his ballclub, because Cruz represents the extreme of his skill set.

Q. How powerful are the Byrd shots?

A. Moderately. Corey Hart and Logan Morrison have skosh more torque than Byrd does.

On the HR tracker his average HR is a tadbit below average velocity. The eye? It sees Byrd as having garden-variety corner-OF torque.

Q. How about platoon differential? Ballpark context for Byrd? Age-arc?

A. I don't trust Byrd's power here, and the RF homers are definitely ex-homers here, but ... he does tend to pull his shots right down the LF line, and we have a new catch-basin in LF.

It wouldn't surprise if he slugged .450 the rest of the way. Without giving it much more thought (than the first 30 seconds' worth), I'd peg the over-under on his SLG at, say, .440.

..........

His LH/RH splits are no big deal. Jesus Montero's, in sharp contradistinction, are. I don't know whether Byrd would be willing to play 9-to-make-5. The whole rumor scenario is depressing to Dr. D.

You've got the NL-AL transition that is a melancholy one to consider. If Zduriencik wants to call this his Big Move, fine. :: shrug :: It wouldn't be mine, but if he's coming in for Ackley, okay.

Zdruriencik asks SSI for its recommendation on Byrd, it offers back "go with what you got. Why is Montero in AAA?"

That's my opinion I could be wrong,

Dr D

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Comments

Agreed.

Byrd would be some help. Of course "some" covers a wide range. The Mariners' offense needs more than a little help. Heard today on the flagship radio station the same kind of drivel we've been hearing for years and years. First, they acknowledged that something special is afoot for the team, first time in MANY years. Then one of the hosts said, I'd like to see what the guys we HAVE can do over the second half. To be fair, in context he said this when the prospective acquisition of Byrd was being discussed, so I guess in that case I understand. But this team owes ITSELF something, not to mention the fan base, after all these years of seeing if what we HAD would produce (note to world: It HASN'T).

Yeah! That .450 slugging is lookin' mighty fine

Compared to Ackley and Smoak, a mediocre power hitter sounds Awesome. One thing about being a Mariners fan is that your expectations regarding hitting are beaten so low that averageness comes as a very pleasant surprise. See Condor, The. Strikeouts and XBH are much preferrable to this GIDP slop that has lost the majority of Mariners games this year. In fact, unless your name is Miller, or you pitch, slugging .350 should be a requirement to play on the Mariners. Like an entrance exam.
What is nice about this Byrd character is that he seems to provide enough D to deprive Ackley and Endy of playing time. You can still have Hart and LoMo out there to see if they pick it up, and run Byrd exclusively in left, unless Condor is injured, then he can play right. I like him better than the next guys, named Quentin and Vicedio (We already have plenty of reclamation DHes), but that ain't sayin' overly much.
Thanks Doc.

There is a compromise here.

Byrd is clearly an upgrade over Ackley, but not enough of one to make this team a lot better, IMHO. That said, we have more than one slot we could upgrade. We could get Byrd AND Willingham...or if that's too expensive, then Byrd AND Lake AND Souza.

Bar of expectation = Limbo :- )

Right. If Byrd actually delivered .260 / .310 / .460, in Safeco, in August and September -- which he very well might -- then he would be probably our 3rd-best hitter. And probably be the difference in several 3-2 games.
:: daps ::

Agree

Byrd or Willingham (who I prefer) or Rios (who would be my 2nd pick, but is in a homer slump) are part one of a two step process.
To tell you the truth, I see them in Hart's role. Mostly because I don't see Hart finding his old mashing bat anytime soon.
That leaves us still in need of a LF who can get on base.
If you got Willingham (OBP) or Zobrist you could be in tall cotton with a bonking Byrd.
But we're not getting two of those guys.
Zobrist may be the best match of all the guys spoken about, but he's likely the most expensive in terms of guys swapped out. Here I would proceed carefully.
They are all "matches" but each brings some baggage. It's really a "pick 'em" bet on who has the best 70 game run. The cost in players traded may be the key.

Byrd is the Cruz nightmare scenario

To me the downside that many saw as highly possible in Cruz is virtually assured in Byrd:

1. Skill set that tends to disappear overnight? Check.
2. D Grade health and likely to be out for the stretch run? Check.
3. Wrong handedness for the park? Check.
I realize we are looking for right-handed power, but do we really think Byrd has enough ISO to overcome Safeco? I say pass.

Weak Moves vs Strong Moves

Byrd to me would be a "remain competetive" move. He would hit some homers and maybe increase the margin of victory in a handful of games.
Zobrist, on the other hand, I see as a difference-maker for this club. He would help make the first inning very uncomfortable for any pitcher with JJ/BZ/Cano as the first batters the pitcher sees. Fun!

Byrd Follow-up

Would I rather have vintage Corey Hart? Yes. Is he likely to show up? Can't count on it. Even if he does .. he won't be in the OF.
Montero at DH if Hart doesn't get on track? Yes. But again, no OF.
There is a need for a RH bat who can play OF. In addition to whoever is DH.
Byrd seems to be the least-bad option in that regard. The Phillies have no real use for him. Their old guys aren't going to magically get better in 2015.
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You can't play both Hart and Montero at DH anyway. So you have to pick one, whether you have Byrd or not.
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The eternal Safeco conundrum: do you invest in RH hitting even though it might bust, or do you try to avoid RH hitting altogether?
I think they've gone wrong both ways. Beltre and Sexson were supposed to save the team. That's the wrong way to use RH power in Safeco. Byrd wouldn't be that. Cano and Seager are the guts of this lineup.
Then Blengino led them to use all glove guys and LH/SH high-OBP guys -- Endy Chavez as corner OF -- and that didn't work either, Safeco or no.
So I think you need RH power in Safeco -- not to carry the offense but to enhance it. Byrd would be another Zunino in the lineup. Revived Hart or revived Montero would be another. But we need someone like that in the OF so we're not just sending Chavez out there, or hoping for Cole Gillespie to pan out.
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Zunino has 6 HR at Safeco and a .185 ISO at Safeco.
Is there a reason Byrd couldn't do that?
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Is it a weak move? Sure, maybe. But not making a move for a RH OF at all is weaker. There are guys I'd rather have, but Byrd ought to be gettable at a reasonable price.
And I don't think getting Byrd precludes Zobrist or any other move. Get 'em both. But make sure that someone is a RH-hitting OF.

Kinda rather have Stubbs

http://www.purplerow.com/2014/7/14/5899189/rockies-trade-rumors-drew-stu...
Career .822 OPS vs. left handers, excellent baserunner who can steal a base, offers decent defense. Get him and Matt Joyce, and mix and match when Saunders gets back, the two of them will handle things while Saunders is out. If Stubbs loses power at Safeco, he has other qualities to deal with it, starting with a .356 lifetime OBP vs. left handers. But I wouldn't trade a lot for him - visions of Jeff Cirillo dance in my head - has Colorado messed with his head? His road numbers are horrible this season.
Darn Franklin Gutierrez and his darnable health.