There's and dang fine template for Paxton in these words, Doc:
"It is NOT that he has hair-fine command; he certainly does not. He frequently misses, but when he does he misses for a strike.
But what he has, is he has a HERE IT IS, HIT IT! attitude. Randy Johnson didn't have hair-fine command; he trusted his stuff, which is what Price is doing now. It's a cliche, but in this specific case it works awesomely well.
So that's Price's fastball: he is coming after you, and he's not sure where it's going to be, but it's going to be in the zone, so start the bat.
If you do start the bat, then Price's (mediocre) offspeed stuff is plenty to embarrass you. His slider "plays up" due to the fastball."
Pay attention, James. Uh, Zunino, too.
(of course, Paxton is probably walking 4 guys a game this year. But the Price "attack mode" is just his ticket.
.
Q. So how has Price done this? How has he pushed his walks down to Cliff Lee-like levels?
A. We went to the videotape, honestly expecting that he'd done it in Cliff Lee fashion -- that is, by refining his command, and using a cut fastball to stay ahead in the count. Turns out he has done nothing of the sort.
Start by understanding his "wild in the zone" fastball. I mean, it's not really wild, but it's unpredictable in the zone, and not because of hair fine command.
In this demolition of the Red Sox, watch him fan batter after batter with challenge fastballs:
- Pitch one vs Pedroia - 94 MPH fastball, up a little bit, but almost centered
- Pitch two - 94 fastball high and away ("up in his eyes", tantalizing but unhittable) (notice the catcher's glove moves a foot and a half)
- Pitch three - 93 jam pitch, gets a good piece of inside 1/3 of the plate, does hit the mitt here
- Pitch four - 94 MPH letter high, up the ladder
- Pitch five - 93 MPH on the black to a lefty (Price is VERY good at going away from LHB)
- Pitch six - 93 MPH, misses low-and-in, gets the strikeout (see what we mean, erratic but IN the zone)
- Pitch seven - 93 MPH down the heart, freezes the batter, he was in their heads by this point
- Pitch eight - see pitch seven
- Pitch nine - 94 MPH up-and-over to a LH, blew him down (Price has many weapons vs LHB)
It is NOT that he's overwhelming, though 93-94 from a tall LHP is like 95-96 from a righty.
It is NOT that he has hair-fine command; he certainly does not. He frequently misses, but when he does he misses for a strike.
But what he has, is he has a HERE IT IS, HIT IT! attitude. Randy Johnson didn't have hair-fine command; he trusted his stuff, which is what Price is doing now. It's a cliche, but in this specific case it works awesomely well.
So that's Price's fastball: he is coming after you, and he's not sure where it's going to be, but it's going to be in the zone, so start the bat.
If you do start the bat, then Price's (mediocre) offspeed stuff is plenty to embarrass you. His slider "plays up" due to the fastball.
......
Here's the play-in game against the stRangers. You get some of his offspeed stuff here:
- Pitch 1 - 94 MPH right on the black. Too tough to even BUNT this pitch
- Pitch 2 - High-and-away slurrrrrvy slider, very "meh" pitch -- but tantalizing and the batter has to reach
- Pitch 3 - 95 MPH on the black to a LH ... actually off the plate, but he gets the call (Price is VERY good at going away from LH)
- Pitch 4 - 88 MPH slurve to a LH, very "meh" but IT IS IN THE ZONE, Y'FEEL ME? and since it's not a fastball, it's good enough for weak contact (no BABIP luck; it's blonked)
- Pitch 5 - 95 MPH on the black to a lefty ... blonked for a ground ball out
- Pitch 6 - 95 MPH jam pitch hits the mitt, this one was bee-yoo-tee-ful, though not all that typical
- Pitch 7 - 95 MPH at the knees to a LH batter, gets lots of the plate, but blonked on two hops to 1B
- Pitch 8 - A slightly worse version of pitch 7, same result
- Pitch 9 - WOW! Gorgeous dead-fish changeup, just like Jamie Moyer (Nelson Cruz can't believe he had the stones to pull that off on a full count)
- Pitch 10 - 95 MPH challenge fastball right down the heart, lazy fly ball
- Pitch 11 - 87 MPH slider, very "meh" but by now the Rangers are scrambling for bunt base hits
- Pitch 12 - 88 MPH slider, lazy break, high, but gets in just enough for a hard grounder on 1-1
- Pitch 13 - 87 MPH slider, this one is very well located for a change, soft grounder
Looking at pitch 12 ... a big part of the evolution of an MLB veteran starter (and of a chessmaster, by the way) is in his sense of danger.
It sounds cliche, but David Price has gotten to the point to where he can "sense" when he can get away with a lazy slider, to a certain hitter, if he sells it right, on such a count. You think Brandon Maurer has this instinct? Maurer grabbing the ball, huckin' it, and hoping for the best.
....
Video examples could be multiplied... here's a workmanlike lockdown of the Orioles -- 2 runs as usual --none of the pitches anywhere near as pretty as Felix Hernandez'. Watch one start of David Price's and you'd be left with the impression that this guy is a Matt Harrison clone. I don't particularly enjoy watching the man pitch.
It's not what Price can do; it's what he knows. That being, "How much of the plate I can afford to get on which hitter, how much I can afford to challenge each batter." He takes all he's allowed, and then some. When there's a land mine waiting, he steps around it.
It takes most guys a looooonnnnnng time to develop Bronson Arroyo's pitchability. By the time they do, their fastball is usually Long. Gone.
Price is --- > an innings eater who hasn't lost his fastball. That's all. Give Joe Saunders a 6'6" body, a 94 MPH fastball, and he'll give up two runs on six hits and 0 walks, also.
You'd be surprised how rare that is, a man with the savvy and guts of a burned-out innings eater, yet with a 94 MPH fastball. The two don't go together. Usually, an athlete doesn't choose strategy over talent until he's absolutely forced. Credit to David Price for doing so, for rejecting "macho" in favor of "what works."
....
The good news? Price's game is very, very repeatable these days. He's money in the bank. Second half of 2014: 83% starts were dominant, 0% were disastrous. David Price is going to spend four years as baseball's prettiest ugly starter.
BABVA,
Dr D