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Hey,
Nobody hits 97 MPH heaters on the inside black very well. Dead on, Doc.
Even Willie Buck Mays his own self struggled with those puppies.
The concern about Korean/Japanese types related to inside heat is overblown.
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At the News Tribune, they're selling Lee's walkoff as "salvaging a homestand - and maybe a season." At this site they've got the Korean broadcast of the blast (warning: one curse word in the article title if that's NSFW). That announcer sounds like he's about ready to start crying ...
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From an American scout's point of view there were three questions about Lee going in, one of them major and two of them more minor.
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"GOOD VELOCITY"
Lee was actually out in front of the previous pitch, 95 MPH. The one he hit was about 97 MPH. Here's a quick link to a video of the Joy In Mudville ...
97 above the zone is comparable to 101 thigh high center cut, and the line drive arc implies that Lee got completely on top of the pitch. There are only so many major league STARS who are quick enough to get on top of that pitch. I don't think I've ever seen Kyle Seager hit a line-drive homer on a 97 fastball up out of the zone.
Certainly not pinch-hitting, cold off the bench ...
Servais said:
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“When he first got to spring training, there were concerns about how he’d handle velocity,” said Servais. “But the thing we kept seeing is his ability to make adjustments. He cuts down the big leg kick and he cut down the swing to make contact, and he’s plenty strong enough if that he does square it up, he’s got enough power."
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Dr. Detecto's humble opinion are that USA scouts are too hung up on "the coin of the realm" - they seem to spend 50% of their time watching for whether a batter can turn around Craig Kimbrel, when in reality MLB hitters also get slaughtered by 97 fastballs. But! it's true that Asian baseball is played at a lower velocity - they just don't grow 'em as big and powerful over there.
So Lee hitting that pitch to straightaway LF is sort of like --- > you were concerned that Felix was down to 88 MPH and then you watch him throw a fastball that clocks 96 MPH. One pitch or one stolen base or one throw from CF can decide an issue. As James said last week at Bill James Online:
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Hey Bill. I was wondering if there was a minimum threshold in PA for an accurate reading of how a player's season might go. Does that make sense? In other words, if a player is hitting .140 after 200 plate appearances, we can be reasonably confident he will not have a very good offensive season. Thank you kindly.
Asked by: Rcrout
Answered: 4/10/2016
If a player is hitting .140 after 200 at bats we can be 99% certain that he is going to have an off year, but that is such an extreme case I'm not sure how instructive it is. I would say that we SHOULD NOT base judgments about changes in a player's level of productivity based on less than 150 plate appearances, but there are two things to note about that. First, if it isn't 150 plate appearances, where is it? I don't really know. Maybe 20 hits? Let's say a guy is a .300 hitter historically, and after 250 at bats he is hitting .250. That's 12, 13 hits short of expectation, so I wouldn't feel comfortable saying that anything has changed. But if he's hitting TWO HUNDRED (.200) after 250 at bats, that's 25 hits short, so that's over the the line; you've got to think that something is going on.
Second, not all judgments about changes in performance levels are based on what the player has done. A player puts on 20 pounds over the winter and can't get down to first base, you don't have to wait out the clock to realize that he's not the same player. If a player's arm goes, he doesn't have to make 30 bad throws before you realize that he can't throw any more. You can make judgments based on what you see.
In the real world, judgments are based on some combination of performance and what you see, and I don't believe there is any reliable way to draw lines. I remember a few years ago I got into an extended debate with a colleague about Lance Berkman. In 2010 Berkman hit .248 with 14 homers. I thought he was just (a) battling some minor injuries, and (b) hitting in bad luck. My friend said that he looked fat. I said that he ALWAYS looked fat; you can go back and look at games from when he was a 26-year-old center fielder and hit 42 homers, and he looks fat THEN.
Well, I "won" the argument in some sense because Berkman came back the next year and hit .300 with 30 homers; otherwise I would have forgotten about it, you always remember the stuff you are right about. But the thing is, how do you know? You don't, in most cases. I saw a couple of Royals games last year after Alex Gordon returned from an injury, and it was--AND IS--my opinion that he is just not the same player. He just doesn't move the same way, and I think he's done. But the Royals obviously know what they're doing, and they don't agree, and really, I was just basing my opinion on watching him a handful of games. So we'll see.
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So Lee's epic homer didn't mean that much to Dr. D, but it shure as shootin' did to MLB guys in uniform.
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SLG Translations
This was the more minor "concern." Most analysts don't have a lot of doubt whether AVG and OBP in Asia translates over here. The issue is PWR, but the thesis here was that Lee's size transcends that. Lee's other homer was a deep shot to CF through the Seattle air, so already we've got a pretty good indication here too.
He hits his HR's with fairly controlled swings; Wednesday's homer was "only" 98 MPH off the bat, despite the 97 velocity coming in. His previous HR was 104 MPH off the bat, but all of his fly balls show a nice ability to cover the top half of a good fastball.
The controlled swings speak to his HIT tool. Here's a Times article quoting him,
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Lee believes the 11 years in the Korean Baseball Organization, four in the Japan Central League and his time in the World Baseball Classic and other international tournaments have prepared him for major-league competition.
“All those games I’ve played, they help,” he said.
The Mariners think Lee can hit big-league pitching. Lee definitely thinks he can hit.
“I’m not a really big home-run guy,” he said. “I just tried to put everything in the center (of the bat) and controlling the ball. So when it’s hit good, it’s automatically a home run.”
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Lee was hitting .300/.370/.500 in Japan, not beating out a lot of infield hits, we don't imagine. Taking that and his first games here, Dr. D would project him to about .260/.340/.450 in America if he played fulltime. Against lefties only, I wouldn't bet against the .300/.370/.500 in 250-300 AB's. Wonder what will happen to the jobshare if Lind has trouble with part-time play.
Of course, he could nose-dive from here, but the M's jettisoned Montero and Romero because of their vision of the .500'ish slug against LHP's. So far he hasn't done a lot to contradict that :- )
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DEF at 1B
SSI always thought this was a little bit too "nervous nelly," as though defense at 1B is so much more complex in MLB(TM) than it is in the mistake-intolerant NPB. (?!)
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EXEC SUM
So, like if Iwakuma was throwing 91 MPH in April, that would be a good reason to deal for him in roto, Lee's first 15 at-bats indicate likewise. If I had a fantasy team I'd be trying to deal for him, take away the platoon issues of course. Lee signed for $1MM with $3MM in performance bonuses; the M's better start stashing some cash.
His other homer came when we were down 2-0 to Surkamp, a homer to straightaway CF that broke up the shutout and helped put the M's into a 2-2 tie that lasted from the 5th to the 9th. Didn't win that day, but the two homers have come in pitchers' duels. Being as he's batting 8th, it's nice collateral damage.
At the moment Lee's homer puts him #1 on the roster for OPS+, at 183. Good sign that it won't take "half a season, 300 AB's" to adjust to strange pitchers. He's hitting .231/.286/.692, despite a BABIP of .125. His out-of-zone swing rate is 16.7%, second to Ketel Marte.
Nice start for the big guy. If he slugs .500'ish on the season, platooning against LHP's, that will be serious collateral damage at the bottom of the order.
Enjoy,
Dr D