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Further, I do think the difference between Casper and Endy defensively is a lot smaller than their gap offensively... obviously in Casper's favor. Go get Casper.
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Geoffy with a bare-knuckle Op Ed this morning, raking his opponents over the coals for the Jaso and Wells debates. Geoff has got a constitutional right to his opinion -- now that he's in America, not Canada -- and he's taking full advantage. :- )
Whereupon the Toronto Blue Jays drew a double-underline beneath Baker's assessment, designating Wells for assignment. As Spectator pointed out.
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I don't know whether it's typical for a player in Wells' situation to feel friendly about a bounceback. You'd assume that he would. The M's treated him well this March, as far as we can tell, and if Wells had the prospect of some playing time ...
Is it embarrassing for Wells to turn up in the clubhouse again? No idea. Do know that it's been a long time since we can remember any other player "bouncing back" like that in a short time.
We know, we know. T'ain't likely. It's a baseball chat, man. What can we tell ya.
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In a vacuum, 95% of us would love to have Casper Wells as our 4th, 5th outfielder.
Just saw my first game from the upper deck specifically, and that Safeco porch is a lot closer to home plate than I thought it would be. If the LF stands are a slot machine, that new HR area looks like a gigantic catch-basin for quarters.
It says here there will be a LOT of homers hit into that area. (In the first inning of the game we were at, Franklin Gutierrez put one right into the catch-basin; then the next night, Iwakuma's only run allowed was a ball 3 feet over the new LF wall.)
Here's what Shandler says about Wells for 2013:
- More AB (in 2012), a touch more contact, fewer HR, and no change vs RHP
- PX/xPX combo hints at less power than previously (which was mammoth - Dr D)
- Still not taking advantage of speed
- Career 838 OPS vs LHP point to his likely career path
We'd sum that up by saying, Wells retains a 10% shot at a BIG bustout. His power is special, and his speed is nice too. Even if he becomes a lefty-masher, that's a nice specialized skill for a #4-5 outfielder.
So: we do agree with Baker 100%, that the hand-wringing over Wells was out of line. But we agree with everybody else too, that Casper Wells would be a #4-5 outfielder De Luxe. Summing up the reasons that Casper Wells could be a championship-level fourth OF:
- He's got the potential to start slugging .500, .550
- He's a lefty-masher
- He's got a CF glove
- He's got the potential to steal you bases in late innings
Some day, some way, we could easily picture Wells putting in a Mark McLemore-level contribution as 10th or 11th man.
That's not to say the M's need him, or don't. It's just to say that he's worth a certain amount of effort. This ain't your dime-a-dozen benchie.
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He is well worth the time investment, if you can fit him onto your roster. A couple of things have emerged since April 1, such as the realization that Franklin Gutierrez is not going to be able to play 140 games. We are talking Eric Davis levels of fragility here.
Gordon, what's your best estimate for the ETA on Michael Saunders being back up to speed and slugging .500?
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There's one key roster issue here. Endy Chavez is a glove-first CF; Casper Wells is a bat-first CF. If you've got Raul Ibanez, Michael Morse, and Jason Bay in the corners, can you put Casper Wells in center?
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Comments
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Is that the Blue Jays DFA'd Wells while keeping 32 year old, 5'9", career .692 OPSing Rajai Davis even though Davis has had an awful start. Davis doesn't have upside like Wells does, or even like Bay does. Shouldn't the next move be to seriously question why 2GMs respected by the Advanced Stats community would release a player like Wells to keep what appear to be significantly inferior options statistically?
3
So I would expect Michael back in the lineup after his mandatory 15 days are up, and for his power to be back a couple weeks after he's back in the lineup, assuming his swing hasn't gotten rust-ified.
I'm more concerned with where you play him, since it was his throwing arm and I'd hate for him to hurt himself again trying to gun someone down at 3rd. I think swing-wise he should be okay if it's a minor sprain. I'd tell him to make Ibanez-level throws in from the OF, though, 80% that thing until he's feeling really good.
As for Wells... he really does have power when he catches one on the bat. He just doesn't catch enough (and hits from the wrong side) to be a full-timer right now. But as a backup, or a platoon with Raul who can cover CF or RF too? He's still a good fit for us with this Saunders and Guti thing. Especially Guti - the dude just can't stay healthy, like you said.
But Casper's hit .265/.350/.490 vs LHP in his major league career! He DOES have that skill. If you're trying to patch together your lineup, and you have a guy who can hit righties but can't defend (Raul) wouldn't you want a guy who can crush lefties and CAN defend to play late innings for him and get the LH starts?
Casper isn't gonna be Nelson Cruz, who busted out in his late-20s when finally given the opportunity. Cruz hit .300-ish in the minors, while Wells hit .250. They had the same ISO in the minors, though (~.240) and their OBP and ISO is basically the same in the bigs against LHP. Wells walks more and has had the same prodigious power.
We aren't gonna get a full-fledged Cruz, or else (one would hope) we never would have let him go. I'm sure when we traded for him we hoped he would be, but that's not Casper's game unfortunately.
But a good defender with a great arm and pretty huge power who can be a weapon against lefties? Yes, I would like that in our swiss-army-knife arsenal, especially as we try to mix and match around these injuries.
Wells is welcome back on my team, absolutely. We'd just have to figure out how to keep him around and put him to proper use. I wanted to platoon he and Thames this offseason, so platooning his bat with Raul's is totally okay with me should such an occasion arise again.
~G
4
With the injury to Saunders doesn't Borbon (also a DFA) make more sense than retreading Wells?
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So that we can claim Wells back and trade them somebody back. I thought it might be DJ Mitchell but he's already cleared. But we have a ton of moderately interesting guys who don't have to be on a 40-man, much less a 25-man, and can buy back an outfielder we like.
That's actually what I'm curious to see: whether that is something that happened, since it's no skin off Toronto's nose either way and we are having to juggle our roster to an insane degree with all these early setbacks (see: Harang, Aaron).
~G
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That actually makes good sense. Give 'em a ring back and ask 'em if they want to undo the deal. No political issues there I wouldn't think.
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Perhaps as a front-page post? Or maybe a comment we can mosh off.
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Wells is valuable this year.......and next year. And cheap.
Can you say the same thing about Raul or Chavez (well, definately not Chavez)?
I was with G. The Wells/Thames platoon made real sense. .800 OPS+ vs. lefties and .750+ vs righties, with an upside.
I would pick up Wells in a heartbeat. Chavez goes away, and then Bay later.
Alas, that would really be a major admission of error. Ergo: It probably will not happen.
Sometimes the most sensical things are the hardest to do.
Sigh,
moe
Heck...I might go get BOTH Borbon and Wells and let both Chavez and Bay go. Borbon is career vR .293-.333-.370. That will drop in Seattle. His career numbers (vL & v R) in Seattle are 220-.238-.220 and .308-.342-.387 in Texas.He plays all the OF positions.
Raul, in the way again.
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Ramon Ortiz.
Yes...that Ramon Ortiz.
That...is QED. Casper Wells is a horrid baseball player...everyone who actually has to make real world roster decisions agrees.
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Career 109 OPS+? Mashes lefties to the tune of .838 OPS. Plays all the OF slots?
Raul's career #s' are 112 and his OPS vs RHP is .837.
OK...he hits righties vs Wells' lefties. I get it.
Chavez has never had a single season above 109 and his career number is 75.
And Wells is probably his equal in the field.
Wells isn't Frank Robinson. But he's the classic type of 4th OF. Major league teams have been using guys of lesser quality for ever.
I will gladly take him back.
And Toronto's decision was probably influenced by the need of another SS. Without Reyes their SS is Munenori Kawasaki!
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Read the baker column from my phone (which has not reached its free access limit, hah!). That's some strong stuff; if that column were watered down it would still be 80 proof. What site(s) is Baker in a flame war with? Why doesn't Baker just stick to reading SSI? If Casper Wells came back would you give up on Guti, or just use Wells as a placeholder? How would Wells feel about making the team for a week or so until Morse's mouse clicking finger is fixed or Condor comes back? And lastly, why doesn't someone find out what happened to Erasmo? Is he injured? What is his ETA? Is he in legal trouble?
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When you have a relatively small number of plate appearances in your career...your OPS can be heavily influenced by one torrid month. Casper Wells has two of those...one in Seattle and one in Detroit...and the rest of the time he hit. 200 with a few HR and a blizzard of ugly Ks.
I'll again suggest that people quote his numbers with some sense for the uncertainty...innhis case the standard deviation on his OPS from month to month is gigantic...making him extremely risky for a fourth outfielder.
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The public gnashing of teeth on the new LL over Wells and the "every single thing Zdurencik does is terrible and cause for firing" crowd on his own blog have gotten under Geoff's skin.
Wells is the very definition of a "replacement level player" - guys that are basically free and readily available. Just like Bay and Endy. The upgrade or downgrade for swapping one of them out for Wells is pretty marginal.
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Wells isn't here because he had a bad spring training, and Bay a good one. His travails are his own (un-)doing. He should be very happy for any opportunity to extend his career. That said, he could help us in our time of need. It may not save him a spot after Saunders' return, but it might earn him his next one on another team.
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I'd say that they are two very different player types. Wells is more of a corner outfielder in the Jay Buhner mode, right-handed, lots of swings and misses, big power in spurts, late order hitter, good corner defender, can play center in a pinch. Whereas, Borbon is a true center fielder, with more speed, left-handed, doesn't strike out a ton, more of a lead-off type.
Borbon put in a heck of 2012 season at AAA Round Rock hitting .304/.349/.433 in 584 plate appearances. 69/37 k/bb. 11.8% k rate compared Wells who k's at a 28% rate.
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Personally, I think we need a back-up for Guti - not a replacement for Bay or Ibanez. Chavez is fine in a pinch, but doesn't present the upside potential of a Borbon (age 27 with experience - 15 months younger than Casper). Plus the left-handed Borbon would provide a more versatile bench vs the right handed Bay, Andino, Shoppach, and Chavez - and would be a great pinch runner.
Not enough there for a front pager. I certainly haven't seen enough of Borbon to have any in-depth insight, but on the surface, do you really want to go back to the one you just dumped? Or take a flier on something new, younger, and potentially better?
- Ben.
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A casual but fair look at the splits, including month to month OPS figures, suggest to me that Wells is indeed a capable 4th outfielder, and the last two seasons he has mashed lefties. I agree that Wells is not the hill to die on, but the numbers suggest a very good platoon half. C'mon: .891 OPS vs. lefties last year. Fluke? It was .831 the year before. SSS? We're talking 261 PAs overall in the past two years. The monthly OPSes are scattered much like you'd expect from any typical player. It's a very normal looking fluctuation.
I would be delighted with a .850 OPSing outfielder, providing right handed power in Safeco, sharing time with a similar .850 OPSIng lefty. Let's not strain out a gnat with these stats, and swallow a camel. Casper has proven in his two years here that he can play defense, and hit lefties extremely well. Seems to me Safeco field can use a guy like that.
But, if you have a Guti, and a Morse, and a Bay, a Wells is superfluous. But c'mon, Matt, let's be fair.
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Since Smoak can't hit the broad side of a very large barn,I say you get a good guy that can hit and will dive for baseballs. Morales is good, but I don't see him playing everyday. Bay needs to shuffle off to Buffalo or somewhere else. His play last night was pitiful. Good catch by Endy tonight, but it didn't take long for all three of them to go down. I knew it would happen, just didn't know it would be this soon. I think JackZ has a deal going with TOR to hold onto Casper until we can get rid of somone/DL someone to put him in. You don't make minor league player of the year with moderate skills. CCW is the real deal and Bay needs to hit the road. Never should have traded Morse a few years back, but if you love something you let it go...if you can trade and get it back it is yours forever. I see a run at the ALCS in our future...