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Your Key To a 2014 Title, dept.
... and assorted taglines, gracing the flexicovers of Dr. D's favorite roto rag. Sez Ron:
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A touch of bad H%/S% luck, and gopheritis, infected his first half before a triceps strain shelved him for 6 weeks. BPI's remained strong, however, and were vintage upon his return. With rising Cmd and low-3 xERA's, he's a better offense and a bullpen away from consistently duplicating his 2012 line. Bid with confidence ($22).
Projected statline: 17-8, 3.11 ERA, 1.15 WHIP ... 8.0 strikeouts per game, 2.1 walks, high groundball rate
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A healthy portion of SSI's readers lead balanced lives and therefore can't read that gobbledeegook. What Ron said, in regular English:
1) David Price's stats were bad in the first half, because a lot of seeing-eye grounders went through, and a lot of relievers let his runners score.
2) Even though his ERA was bad, his strikeouts, walks, and other component skills were (if anything) better than ever. Price wasn't pitching bad. He performs consistently very well, and for three years now (2011-13) he's shown Cliff Lee-like dependability.
3) Price's 2nd-half component skills -- such as strikeouts and walks, dominant starts, disaster starts, etc -- were mind-boggling and entered Pedro Martinez territory.
4) His strikeout to walk ratio, always superb, is GETTING BETTER AS WE SPEAK. David Price is improving as a pitcher, and he was already one of the super-elite.
5) He's well capable of a run of 20-win seasons with 2.50 ERA's all the way through...
6) So, go get this guy, even if you have to overpay.
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On that last, Ron is referring to overpaying in rotisserie. Any resemblance to real-life overpayment is strictly coincidental.
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Dr's R/X
Personally I do NOT believe that David Price has evolved into a second Cliff Lee, for reasons I'll explain in detail, next post. It says here that he was "pitching over his head," to a certain extent, in the second half of 2013. Joe Saunders pitched over his head, down the stretch in 2012, and we told you as much...
The result of Joe Saunders falling back to earth is one thing. The result of David Price falling back to earth is a rather different thing. Like Ron says, Price ran a 20-5, 2.50 record in 2012, and he wasn't pitching over his head the last five years.
The insane BB/9 record, at the end of last year, I don't think you're going to see that. But Price's veteran savvy is jelling, I think, and that will likely increase the reliability of his excellence. I like the kid's attitude out there, but that's another story ...
Dr D
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