1
Though obviously he switched in the minors, I believe Abe Almonte was signed as a second baseman. But if he can keep channelling his inner Kirby Puckett, I'm fine with him being either the CF or 4th/5th OF.
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Ryan Divish's lineup du jour features 1 Dustin Ackley, CF and 2 Kyle Seager, 3B in front of our new Monsters of the Midway. Works for Dr. D.
Rick sez, in the Shout Box,
rick82: I'm ready to anoint Ackley as our lead off hitter in 2014. Since his callup from Tacoma last season, Dustin has run a .285/.354./404 line in 256 PAs. Put him in LF or CF, wherever it works best, but I have no problem with him in CF if we want to put lumber in the corners. That catch he made in Houston was enough to show me he has the speed to play the position. His arm OK for CF, so long as he can make catches like that. He's going to get better out there - they just threw him out there last season after a few games in Tacoma. He'll settle in after half a season. The kid has speed, and knows how to handle a bat. He'll get on base, and he'll run them well. There's a lot to like there, and it makes no sense to focus excessively on the negatives when you got a smart kid like Dustin with his skill set entering age 26. A new manager will help as well - a fresh start, with a good half season under his belt.
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Cheap at Twice the Price, Dept.
It's funny - at Bill James Online they've just now been noodling around the general territory of 2B's-turned-OF's. The general verdict: a long, LONG line of All-Star bats found their targets after the players were moved off 2B.
...
I may have missed someone else mentioning him, but Ron Gant came to the majors as a second baseman... played only at second and then third for his age 22-24 seasons, before moving to centerfield and later to left. He seemed to me to have the necessary equipment to succeed at 2B, physically kind of a taller Joe Morgan, fast and strong. He had 26 errors against only 82 double plays in 122 games at second in his age-23 season, though. That's less than an ideal ratio, and the errors (I doubt the Braves organization was thinking about the relationship between the two numbers at that time) probably sealed the deal, as they wanted the bat in the lineup. He had a heck of career, but he might have been a HOF second baseman if he would have been able to stay, and stay healthy, at the position.
Asked by: LanceRichardson
Answered: 12/11/2013
Yeah. . .Gant actually played second for a couple of years, so he is more in the Pete Rose transitioned-to-outfielder class than he is in the Reggie Smith/Tim Raines/Danny Tartabull-I-didn't-know-HE-was-a-second-baseman-class. Another one who is in the relevant class, though, is Hal McRae. McRae went through the minors as a second baseman.
(Larry Doby, Mickey Mantle,* Bobby Murcer, Hank Aaron (!) were also discussed - Dr D)
Other than Sanchez, Manooka Mike McNally was the Red Sox opening day starter at second in 1920 and later appeared maybe 50 times there for the Yankees... Mark Bellhorn was the Red Sox regular 2b in 2004 and made two appearances for the Yankees there in 2005. (I had nothing better to do this morning than look that up.) Did you know that Reggie Smith was the Sox' opening day 2b in 1967?
Asked by: taosjohn
Answered: 12/8/2013
I didn't, no. There actually are a line of players similar to Reggie who were minor league second basemen, came to the majors and moved off of second, became better known as outfielders. Tim Raines, Don Buford, Reggie. ..all switch hitters, all good hitters, came to the majors as second basemen, are remembered as outfielders. Danny Tartabull was a minor league second baseman, came to the majors as a second baseman.
Lee Lacy (1972-1987) came to the majors as a second baseman, would have had a much better career--comparable to these other players--if the Dodgers had come to terms with the fact that he wasn't an infielder earlier in his career. When he finally gave up on playing the infield he hit .335 for the Pirates in 1980, .312 in '82, .302 in '83, .321 in '84, 100+ games in all of those seasons, but his career had been damaged by several years of trying unsuccessfully to pretend he was a second baseman.
...
And there was a lot of other interesting convo this month about position switches, what drives them, and so forth.
Another, very strange, truth emerged at BJOL this last few weeks: almost no MLB second basemen were drafted as second basemen. They're drafted as shortstops ...
...
Other than good speed, good hands, and a strong arm what makes teams keep or shift players from shortstop? Obviously, players who can hit but are shaky defensively fill this bill Is there anything else like attitude or even personality?
Asked by: David Kowalski
Answered: 12/11/2013
I don't know that there are personality elements in that decision. Our general philosophy is that a young player plays shortstop until we know that he can't do it. Jed Lowrie was a college second baseman (essentially), played a little bit of shortstop in college. We put him at shortstop, just on the theory that if he COULD play shortstop, that would be a good thing, and it turned out that he could. I am certain that other teams do this as well, because if you look at the history of the amateur draft, there has almost never been a second baseman drafted in the first round. I think in the entire 48-year history of the draft, 1200 or 1300 first-round draft picks, there are only a handful listed at the time of the draft as second basemen, whereas there are dozens and dozens listed at every other position. The reason that is true is that the drafting organization gets to decide how to list the player, and everybody does the same thing we do: they don't ASSUME that a player can't play shortstop. Lots of players drafted in the first round were actually playing second base in college, but their teams still drafted them as shortstops, just on the theory that if they COULD play shortstop, that would be good. I think that Spike Owen, who was a very good defensive shortstop albeit a light hitter, was actually a college second baseman.
...
Then Tigerlily found, in the HeyBill conversation ($3 per month, kiddies!) that of the 38x20 = 760 top picks from 1965-2002, only eight were drafted as second basemen.
This sort of implies that in order to play second base in the majors, you'd better be a shortstop-quality NCAA infielder.
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Large Mammals, Small Mammals
I chuckled about this conversation because, of course, Dustin Ackley's hitting coincided with his being moved from 2B to OF:
| Pos | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| as 2B | .241 | .313 | .343 (ugh) |
| as LF | .344 | .417 | .438 |
| as CF | .282 | .341 | .429 |
The hitting coincides with other things, too, such as the AB's occurring later in his career. :- ) But that shouldn't blind us to this factor as well.
Of course, Dr. D had argued long and hard that Dustin Ackley was well capable of playing second base. As it turned out, he was capable of playing second base, but ... as you know, Dr. D isn't infallible. He's just massively awesome. There's a difference....
Let's leave theory out of it and just talk reality. Dustin Ackley is one confused puppy out there. If there were ever anybody who needed less to think about, it's him.
I don't think Rick's "being a homer" to get optimistic about Ackley's second half. Dr. D can tell you, right now, what the national magazine BaseballHQ will have to say: it will say that Ackley's second half is a strong signal of the potential he is about to realize.
It might have been okay to give up on Ackley last year. It's not okay to give up on him right now. Not after you moved him to OF and he hit like he did.
...
From a scouting standpoint -- he got royally fouled up, because of his incredible greed, his shrill insistence on yanking fly balls down the 1B line. This led to 0-1, 0-2 counts on outside fastballs, and to all kinds of pitcher mirth at his expense.
But the man has a SUDDEN bat launch, very nice wrist torque and explosion, a KBIZLT swing, and a solid gold pedigree. He was a "5-year storm" as a college hitter. If he needed 1,200 AB's to figure it out... sue him. Carlos Guillen needed a few more than that, but then Guillen became an MVP-level player.
...
By the way, at BJOL they also found that Ichiro is the ONLY left-hand hitter with a reverse platoon split, if you set the threshold at 2,000 PA. If you go down to 1,000 PA there are Ichiro and Enos Slaughter. Ichiro was perhaps the toughest LH-on-LH out that ever lived.
Enjoy,
Dr D
Comments
2
If Brad progresses even a little bit from last year, I do not think you can keep him at 9th in the order.
Also batting him after Smoak or Zunino or even LoMo wastes his speed... It could get interesting...
3
But unless Hart is the M's next RF, we're still missing a RH OF bat. I don't want Hart in RF. I don't want to add to the risk of losing his bat.
I think Ackley is worth keeping. But I'm not sure we do keep both he and Franklin. Of the two, it is a "pick 'em" type of game, right now. Franklin is really the more versatile in that he plays all the IF glove positions.....or could. He can't go to CF...but I'm sure he plays a decent LF even with just a ST of practice.
Bloomquist is in the way of keeping both of them...and I see no need to AAA Franklin.
The batting splits based on position played are interesting. Ackley was completely lost...even more so than Saunders was when he was terrible. But Ackley found something again. I have no problem with batting him leadoff. Would love to see the RH COF bat added, however.
4
Ichiro as a 4th OF'er? The 2015 season will be interesting as far as the Ichiro dilemma is concerned. Where and when will he retire?. Will his pride interfere with a roll as a bench player? Griffey had a tough time with it. I'll admit he'd be a decent 4th, playing all 3 OF positions if needed, and as a late game sub, pinch runner/hitter.
5
Do you put him 2nd and move Seager to 5th, after Hart, with LoMo 6th, Smoak 7th, Zunino 8th and Saunders 9th? If Miller progresses that's a nice little quandary to have, and if he does move up you're looking at 9) Saunders, 1) Ackley, 2) Miller, 3) Cano. But... with Cano hitting third I think Seager can consistently do more damage out of the two-hole than Miller. The only semi-logical places for him in the order are 1, 2, 8 or 9. If you figure Zunino hits 7th and you want to go LRL behind him your 8, 9, 1, 2 is Saunders, Miller, Ackley, Seager. That's a bunch of speed for Kyle to clear off with a two-bagger.
6
To quote Don Henley, "don't look back, you can never look back". The Ichiro era is in the past. The club needs to find a new identity.
7
a couple of years ago. Then they put Ichiro up to the leadoff spot and Ackley tanked. I think he will also do considerably better with Wedge being gone. Ackely's approach is the antithesis of what Wedge desired out of his hitters. I'm sure every time Ackley took his bat back to the bench after seeing a few pitches Wedge was glowering at him. That would get old real fast.
8
I'm becoming a fan of sending players back to AAA for head clearing when they are putrid at the major league level. Besides Dustin having a very good return, Smoak has been OPSing .770 since his demotion and callup. Now, I can agree that we want more than .770 from our first baseman. But, compared to what we were getting before the demotion, this is worlds better. Same with Ackley. It is interesting to me how dramatic the improvement was in both cases, and - that being the case, a second go round in Tacoma by Nick Franklin wouldn't bother me either, if he remains in the funk he finished 2013 in.
9
He also ran a second half BABIP of .358 which is 60 points higher than his career average even with those AB's counted. Even in his minor league career he was about a .320 BABIP guy over about 1000 PA's, and that's against minor league defenses even after playing 3 years of high level college baseball.
Am I saying that he's GOING to be a .294 BABIP guy next year or the year after? Who knows. All I'm saying is that's what he has produced so far, even with all of the hoopla surrounding his bat control and hand eye coordination. Sure, I think he has tools to be a higher BABIP guy, but so do lot's of guys that never pan out. I think with his limited power, he HAS to be a higher BABIP guy to be a player you want on your roster long term. It's either that or he has to be a high walk guy. A guy with an iso in the low 100's with a .340 obp and below average defender, which is what I see him as in center, is an ok player. But is he the guy you want to pencil in to your lineup for the next 5 years?
I mean even in that rookie year that everybody agrees is the version of Ackley that all the scouts talked about, he ran a BABIP of .340 with a .144 ISO. Cut that down about 20 or 30 points and now a lot of the shine starts to fade. Is he a true talent 340/144 guy? I haven't seen it for two years now, except for a few hundred AB's last year where he ran that .358 BABIP.
Haven't we seen that story play out with Smoak? A guy gets hot for a month or two, his core secondary stats are screaming caution, and we only see things like, "he looks more comfortable at the plate", or "he's swinging at pitches he wants now" or add whatever other line we like to use. I would just stress caution before we pencil him in as leadoff and just assume he'll succeed based off of his last 250 AB's and draft position.
10
Ackley profiles as a lead off guy. Tons of patience, high contact rate, good speed on the base paths...but he had a manager that was pushing him to be something he's not. He should be aiming for 400 OBP, not 30 HR. I knew he was hosed as soon as I saw Drayer quote him saying that he was trying to hit a HR every at bat. Ackley, more than any other M, should benefit from the change in manager.
11
Merks, Ackley has ALWAYS been a terrible leadoff hitter in the bigs. His rookie year he was, however, a nice hitter in the 3rd slot. Past performance suggests batting leadoff is not the place for him. His improvement suggests he may now fit there. In his heart, I think he sees himself as a guy who will punish you, not just chip away at you. He was the best college hitter in the game, if you will remember correctly.
My only concern about batting him 1st is that we not try to turn him into a pure opposite field hitter.
12
Mt,
As a rookie (his one "good" year) , Ackley's OPS+ value was not in his AVG or OBP, it was in his ability to hit XB hits. In 333 AB's that year, he had 29 of them. In essence, he slugged better than he got on base. He walked 73 point, which is nice...but not anything suggestive of Morgan or Henderson, for example. In last year's "good" half, he walked 70 pts. He did, however, get 16 XB hits in 184 AB's. In his "good" rookie year, he had a XB hit 1 in every 11.7 AB's. In his "good" 1/2 last year, it was 1/11.5. His walk rate was nearly identical, too. Ackley has to hit .325 to have an OBP of .400. He isn't getting there. He isn't going to walk much more, either...how many more pitches can a guy take? His hidden value is in the fact that he slugs. Give him 550 AB's and he'll get close to 50 XB's. 50 is the magic number, btw. Get 5 guys with 50 and you have a heck of a lineup. Don't make him into a Punch and Judy hitter.
Like it or not, Ackley's batting value is because he slugs a bit.
13
When somebody puts up a .340 BABIP over half a season (and then again over another half a season) you kinda want to know why. Is he just crushing the ball? Is he getting lucky on bloop singles off the fists? What's goin' on?
Casey Kotchman put up a 127 OPS+ for Tampa Bay the year after he was a disaster for us. People pointed and said, "see? Success!" His BABIP that year was .335 (it's .270 for his career even with that huge year in there).
Is Dustin's good second half an outlier, or did he go back to doing the special things that were getting him the accolades in 2011?
He was stinging the ball around the park in 2011 (22.3% line drive rate), was a butcher at that in 2012 (well, around league average at 19.4) AND had a painful .265 BABIP (pathetic roll-over grounders tend to drop your BABIP), and then in 2013... his BABIP for the first 3 months was abominable (.248 first half) but after he came back, it was much better (.358).
Line drives? 17.4% first half (below league average by something like one and a half percent, IIRC), 26.7(!!) second half. That second half figure is basically what Joey Votto does and he tends to lead the league in LD% year to year.
So was his BABIP "luck" or was he legitimately pounding screaming liners when he made contact? It still looks like the latter. That's what he did in college, it's a skill he's shown in a couple of half-seasons in the bigs... and if he keeps it up he's a player you'll want to have hung on to.
If he gets wrapped around the axle again, then you won't. Is he done with that, or can he keep putting bat to ball with hard lined shots to the OF instead of wrist-y grounders to 2nd?
That's what we'll see in 2014, I guess.
~G
14
Because the 2H BABIP isn't news to anybody.
Doing TWO things, (1) adjusting the BABIP down to, say, .330-.340, and (2) allowing for normal growth in EYE and PX, Ackley winds up with a better slash line than 2H 2012.
Such growth isn't a given, but it is typical, especially for talents like him. That growth projection will be the consensus among national (not local) analysts going into 2014. The national analysts aren't laser-focused on one or two local failures that they set to be the standard for all future 25-year-olds, but are taking into consideration 100's of prospects like Smoak, Ackley, Seager, and so on.
Pleased to be the bearer of good news.
15
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that there's no traction to trade talks between the Yankees and Mariners regarding Dustin Ackley (Twitter link).
16
He didn't have a leadoff AB in his rookie season and has pretty much put up the same line in 2012 and 2013 at leadoff.
One thing he profiles as that makes me think leadoff is a base stealer. He profiles as a base stealer but never has been. 43 SB in 3 college seasons at a 75% rate of success doesn't even look too hopeful. 17 steals in 2 MiL seasons at 74% and now 21 in the majors over 3 seasons at 78%. He's faster than that but hasn't ever harnessed it with instinctive theft. For me to be happy about him leading off, that's the improvement I'd be looking for the most. Not that he can't be a good leadoff hitter without it, it's just something that seems it should be better than it is. Maybe it's in coaching and that's something that will be addressed this year. Maybe he just won't.
17
Just for the record, I didn't think I was dropping a bombshell of knowledge on anyone by pointing out his 2H BABIP, I was just offering a reminder. I realize I'm not the smartest guy in the room, so I'll just humbly submit my argument.
I do understand that BABIP isn't random, that some guys post higher than average BABIPs year after year, and this is based on what you said, higher line drive rates and speed. But, isn't line drive rate notorious for it's random nature? I feel like I remember reading many places that line drive rate year over year is a highly variable stat. I could be wrong there.
We seem to only narrow in on the month or two when a Mariner hitter gets hot and stings the ball all over the park as Ackley did in August or as Smoak was doing in I forget which month and just assume that he has made some key adjustment that will lead to a drastic change in his offensive output. Smoak was running a BABIP over 300 at some point over like a month's worth of AB's and some people though it was a sign that he had made a few changes and that his hitting liners all over the field was evidence of this. He regressed and ended up with a better than his career average 109 wRC+ for the season, but the BABIP ended about 10 points higher than his career average and he basically reproduced his 2011 season at the plate.
Now I'm not saying Smoak and Ackley are similar players, nor that they have simliar skillsets. They clearly don't. What I'm trying to say is that we can't focus on 200 AB's at the exclusion of the previous 900 AB's that came before and declare him ready for the leadoff spot. I'll say again, he has limited power, his career ISO so far is .109. His minors ISO was .150 and this wasn't some raw high school kid. If anyone should be producing at ages 24-26, it's this guy. He came in hyped as a guy with a great approach, world class hand-eye coordination, excellent ability to hit to all fields, etc. And pitchers quickly realized that if they pump fastballs on the outer 1/3 of the plate, he can't really hurt them.
Was his head screwed up from Wedge? That's a real possibility, but I don't know. His 2H did occur under Wedge. As did his rookie season. All I know is that even if he is some version of his 2H of last year, then you're saying that with a .330 BABIP, which is still pretty high, then he's something like a 275/345/400 guy. Useful, sure. Knock that down 10 more points to a .320 BABIP guy and how excited are you about that guy? I guess it depends on how optimistic you are about his CF growth. To me he didn't look "natural" out there at all. He has plus speed, but the routes and instincts looked poor to me. That's more subjective though.
The numbers projections have always like Ackley less than the scouts. Even before he made it to the majors I saw projections of 265/330/380. And another thing I keep coming back to are his minor league BABIP's. Before his callup he was right around a .310 guy. And that's against minor league defenses. His career ML average thus far has been .294. I'm just very pessimistic that he becomes the guy we thought we were getting 3 years ago. The limited power, the lack of defensive contribution, and the 2000+ professional plate appearance of ~300 BABIP to me point at a guy that just isn't the player we all envisioned a few years ago.
For what it's worth, I'd love to be wrong about this, starting April 2014. lol
18
Is just when he shows a glimmer of hope he gets put under additional pressure hitting leadoff. Sounds like a way to get him overthinking again in a hurry. Can we let him tear it up out of the 7 or 8 hole for half a season and build some confidence?
19
I think a lot of folks are pining a lot of hope for Dustin Ackley on a much smaller sample size then they even realize. Dustin Ackley did not have a good second half of the season in 2013. He had an incredible month of August. By and large, Ackley's July totals were pretty much the same that he put up in April (borderline putrid). His August, all 77 at bats, were other worldly. In September he fell back to his April/July numbers (still borderline putrid)
Who wants to pin all that hope on 77 at bats? Seriously?
20
While it is a small sample size... I think some of us think the wedge presence had a lot more to do with Ackley's head and thought process... and without him, Ackley may just blossom.
21
1. I am more at sea about the Bloomquist signing than I ever was. But I'll live with it.
Assuming he's ours for two years, whether I like it or not, then....
2. Willie B. is much more a #25 guy, than a regular in the IF rotation.
3. Assuming that is correct, we still need a guy to play 2B/SS/3B
4. Ackley doesn't play 2 of those positions, Franklin does.
5. I'm out of the Ackley game. He can go in return for something useful. We're not worthless in CF without him. Saunders and Almonte (plus Guti...on a limited basis) can handle that position just fine.
6. I have no doubt that Franklin could play an adequate LF, too. I'm all about keeping him.
7. Franklin could easily get 40-50 IF starts + another handful in LF. That is with no injuries, that would increase that amount.
8. Remember McLemore
9. What is a Ackley/Smoak/Eram/+ package worth?
Also, I wish I could be excited about the Guti deal. I can't. I know he's for free, basically.....but I just expect him to break again at any moment.
I think we end up with Kendrys...well, I almost think we do. But only if Smoak is a goner.
I still think we could pry Cliff Lee from Philly, if the Japanese bids don't work out.
moe
22
...but I think that Ackley suddenly turning into the guy who went up to bat those 77 times, and doing so full time, is right up there with winning the lottery. I hope for the best, but I just don't see it happening.
23
Dig deeper? You're slicing up Ackley's 200 plus post callup ABs into insignificant SSSes. Then you say we are relying on SSSes? I'm grabbing the whole enchilada here. Post callup, Ackley was very good.
24
From 1 April until 31 September, Dustin Ackley had a very flat season with a steep, sharp blip in the middle. There was no ebb and flow, no sinusoidal action to his season to speak of. The 77 at bats that I'm calling out represent the only time during his season when he was able to raise his game from the sub-mendoza depths that it was floundering in and give folks hope. The problem is, in September he dropped back down to his flat and ugly production. If you want to call that out as slicing and dicing, then so be it. I call it critical examination.
25
But I REALLY want to see Ackley without Wedge for a month or two in 2014 before I give up on him -- the turnaround timing (and subsequent slump) were too coincidental for me to discount. You are probably right, but so many things make it look to me like Wedge screwed with his head on hitting approach that I just want to see a few months more.
26
His September OBP is the kind that certainly would have kept Figgins in the lineup. I suppose I have a half full POV here. When Ackley wasn't hitting, in a slump in September, he didn't revert to pre-demotion form. He was getting on base. That to me is progress. He wasn't making outs. I don't expect him to sustain his 77 AB flurry, but he didn't revert to the disaster he was prior to his promotion as you suggest. What I see here is growth, adaptation. I too call is a critical examination, but more realistic, given his age. Half full is half full. It's not empty.
At the leadoff position, I am counting on more Septembers than Augusts, but expecting a little of both, probably more of the former. That to me is a realistic expectation. Before the demotion, I lost hope of getting either. I see no reason to expect him to return to his pre demotion horridness. Smoak didn't. Smoak is hitting .770 in a long sample size since his 2012 callup. Check his numbers prior.
27
Wedge is present and telling Ackley to be hyper aggressive, Ackley gets pull happy and sucks. Wedge is not present, Ackley hits like the guy we thought we drafted. Wedge comes back, Ackley gets pull happy and sucks again. Maybe it's purely a coincidence, maybe it's not. Ibanez started to hit more or less immediately once he got away from Pinella. It happens.
28
... but I do hope for the best w/r/t Dustin Ackley.
29
is still a 665 OPS for the month it's not all that exciting. His line on the year was 660. I'm with Lonnie here, fingers crossed for the best but in reality no longer holding much hope for Ackley. Maybe he'll scrape together 4 or 5 average seasons.