1
What other players was Engle credited with scouting/signing? Was it Ichiro, Lopez, Choo and Asdrubal? That's good enough for me.
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Reason 1
The last 710-ESPN Hot Stove League. They had an out-of-town guest on, who remembers the name ... he relayed a funny little incident about Erasmo.
"It was one of the first starts of Ramirez' career. Chili Davis was at the plate. Ramirez blew him down and Chili went back to the dugout. He told the bench, 'Guys, we have absolutely no chance.' Ramirez threw a lockdown."
From the CF camera, he looks so underwhelming - Greg Maddux overwhelming. You forget to invert the camera and imagine it from the ump's point of view.
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Reason 2
BaseballHQ on Erasmo, going into this season:
Spring triceps issue lingered, ending possible breakout season before it could begin. Showed, in 5 August starts, what could've been (1.11 WHIP, 116 Base Performance Value). He still owns those 2011 and 2012 skills (93 and 102 Base Performance Values, 50 being average-solid), so with good health, there's plenty of roto profit here ... UP: 3.50 ERA
The simplest way to beat average fantasy baseball owners: Just avoid being impressionable. Just make yourself a bunch of "hot list" Post-Its that identify players who had lousy stats last year, for no important reason. Beginners just go off last year's stats.
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Reason 3
Bill James' research.
The Cliffs' Notes would be this: If you invest 20 or 30 starts in a young pitcher, then other things being equal, see if you can build on that. Don't kick him to the curb and grab for a "fresh" new pitcher to see if you'll hit the lotto and come up with a miracle.
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Reason 4
Sabermetrics.
(Heh!) It's a funny thing - for all of our intellectual pretensions, we still have a whale of a tough time getting past a high ERA, do we not?
It was the early 1980's when Bill James was telling us to STUDIOUSLY AVOID looking at ERA, over the course of one season anyway, and STARE HARD at strikeout to walk ratio.
Ramirez' actual ERA was 4.98 last year. However, his component skills were much better - his xFIP was 4.26, even pitching hurt and out of rhythm. Erasmo's career xFIP, based on 130 innings, is 4.03 -- a wash for the 2013 xFIPs of Bartolo Colon, CJ Wilson, and Bronson Arroyo.
Remember, we're not talking about Erasmo as having max'ed out here. We're asking whether he has pitched himself out of the equation. He certainly hasn't.
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Reason 5
Erasmo's arsenal.
True, because he's short and has a short stride, his fastball is "logically" two feet shorter than the radar gun says. This runs into the hitters' reports, from ground level, that his fastball is "sneaky fast" and gets on them in a big hurry.
When he's right, he's got Maddux-like dart champion mechanics, and lives on baseball's finest weapon: a located fastball.
As with Doug Fister, you have a pitcher who goes 0-1, 1-2 all day long, and at their best he's got two (2) strikeout offspeed pitches, the tailing changeup and the slider with the arm action.
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Reason 6
Two (2) offspeed pitches that gobble up LEFT hand hitters.
Here is a wipeout of the Rays, last September 8th.
- First pitch on the video: a wipeout change to a lefty for the K
- 2nd pitch: a tantalizing 86 MPH slider into (and then OUT OF) a lefty's wheelhouse (zziinnnng!)
- 3rd pitch: this is the reason that Erasmo had some trouble last summer (lack of rhythm stole his hair-fine command)
- 4th, 5th, and 7th pitches: quick FB's, on the black, to get LH's out
- 6th pitch: see pitch #2. Consider a RH slider that blows away lefties ....
- 8th pitch: see pitch #1.
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Reason 7
Two words: Doug Fister, fun size. Okay, that's four or something. But that's what Erasmo Ramirez IS, to the finger-tips. A short Doug Fister.
Last year, he had 9,000 excuses, and did not locate the fastball as well as he needs to. Imagine Doug Fister if he were hitting the middle of the plate with his heater? Yeah. He gets lit up.
Fister and Ramirez, THAT is the type of pitcher that justifies the scout axiom "He's got to locate the fastball to be effective." Taijuan Walker, I'm here to tell you that axiom is not the case. James Paxton, absolutely not. But Ramirez and Fister, go to town. Use the cliche all you want, because it holds up.
You were aware that Doug Fister, his first two seasons, had a 4+ ERA and lousy peripherals? Then, in year 3, he exploded on the league.
Erasmo will be given a chance to win a spot in the rotation, and is in fact scheduled to start the first spring game. He's physically right, then he locates the fastball, and he locates the fastball, he's on his way. Maybe to a Doug Fister career (except with 8 strikeouts instead of 5-6).
Like Ron says: UP: 3.50 ERA.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
We liked Erasmo, Paxton and secret weapon Brandon Maurer last spring. Plus we had Walker starting in AAA. Erasmo is healthy, Paxton is ready to break out, and Maurer finished September with 3 very fine starts. I see no reason to worry regarding the rotation. We are better situated than we were last year at this time, even with the loss of Hultzen. Felix-Kuma-Erasmo-Paxton-Walker-Baker-Maurer is a very nice 7 to make 5 situation. I can see why the Mariners didn't fret over an overpay for a #3, and didn't stress over Capuano. They have a blueprint to follow. It's taking a little longer than expected perhaps, but these things happen.
Similarly, I think they are more sanguine over their lineup than most. They probably feel Ackley, Smoak, and Saunders, Miller, Zunino are on track for significant improvements. Everyone is a year more experienced, and we have a new manager. We're in a good place.
3
I'm with you Rick. I think this team may just be the post-hype sleeper we've been waiting for.
Last offseason they where the talk of Arizona, with many pundits predicting the M's would be the break-out "surprise" team of 2013. This season almost every other site around the M's blogosphere is ready to call this offseason a disaster unless the M's continue to make more moves to shore up the outfield and the rotation. Me? I just don't buy it.
The M's have added Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, Willy Bloomquist, Jon Buck and Scott Baker. The #1 free agent available plus a cadre of reasonably priced additions with plenty of upside. Is that a better haul then Mike Morse, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Kelly Shoppach, Aaron Harang and Joe Saunders? Sure seems that way to me. We picked up several middle of the order hitters, added a flame throwing closer, picked up a back of the order reclamation project that will almost assuredly out perform Safeco Joe and Jeremy Bonderman, and added some solid bench pieces without giving up anything outside of a supplemental or 2nd round draft pick.
I see the rotation of Felix, Kuma, Paxton, Walker, Ramirez, Baker, Maurer as a distinct improvement over last year. No Saunders, Harang, Bonderman, Beavan or Noesi is addition by subtraction. Certainly more upside possibility this year.
The bullpen is now anchored by a "proven closer". Whatever that's worth. But the big surprise of last year's pen - Farquhar - is poised to be an elite relief ace. And shuttling the entire squad down a rung has some serious benefits.
The line-up also appears to be much improved. Gone is the blackhole that was Brendan Ryan at the plate. The Catcher position that was so anemic last year should be greatly improved with a sophomore Zunino and Buck. Gone is the abysmal (injury related?) production of Mike Morse. Gone is the defensive disaster that is Raul Ibanez. We are left we what? Post-hype sleepers abound in Smoak, Morrison, and Ackley. Ackley particularly showed well towards the end of last season. Miller and Franklin provide additional upside promise. Seager looks to be a rock. And the outfield? I'm calling the healthy, sober, rejuvenated Abraham Almonte the breakout candidate of the year. Saunders post shoulder injury is a solid plus contributor, and if Hart can stay healthy in right, we've got a solid plus group there.
And to top it off, if one of the young guns (Zunino, Miller, Franklin) doesn't develop, or one of the post-hype sleepers (Smoak, Morrison, Ackley, Saunders) don't hit, or Hart can't man the outfield, we are still loaded with prospects to make a move as the season develops. Our stop-gap options this year are vastly superior to last year.
I mean no Robert Andino (42 OPS+), Henry Blanco (31), Humberto Quintero (67) or Carlos Triunfel (-10) sinking this offense with their "replacement level' production.
Oh, and did I forget to mention the future HOFer, 3-hole hitting 2nd baseman? Yeah. This team is better than last year already.
And if Walker, Paxton and Ramirez pitch even moderately close to their upside potential? Watch-out.
- Ben.
4
I appreciate Spec reminding us of ER, who most of us may have relegated to at most, a swing man out of the 'pen. As a young player, he screwed up last year, it seems, with his training methods in the weight room. I would hope for better oversight from the training staff going forward, as well as a more mature player. In 2012, when healthy, he was fulfilling expectations. As fans, we also tend to forget that both Safeco Joe and Harang should have been very serviceable in 2013, based on 2012 and earlier performances. Who knew that both would play like they no longer belonged in baseball? It happens, but 2013 were career worsts for both. The Saunders/Harang experiences may have flavored Jack's reluctance to sign Garza/Jimenez/Santana for 4 years/$50M. So it seems we are betting heavily on the kids, but with cheap back-ups in Wolf/Baker, etc. I'd still take Cliff Lee, maybe at the deadline, but of course, I'm spending other people's money.
5
I'm not quitting on him now. He gave up 8 earnies in a minor league start in front of my eyes and I still thought he was tremendous.
He just needs his shot. I would - honestly - rather start Walker in the minors and give him a final wax and polish while salting away another year of club control and monitoring his arm a bit. If Erasmo struggles and Walker is killing it, then by all means call up the ace to Bumgarner his way to greatness.
I love E-Ram, but I freely admit my adoration of his high-fastball/wipeout-change fearless approach to pitching is probably outside the norm. The As are running Tommy Milone out there as a good BOR guy, The D-Backs are getting a lotta mileage out of Wade Miley's 6.5 K/ 2.5 BB with average (9) hits per. Erasmo does that, and has the stuff to do more than either of those guys.
What are we talking about for his mid point comp? Ivan Nova? That dude ain't bad. If only we'd taken him instead of Noesi when we were offered the choice. And Erasmo is a 3-pitch guy rather than a 2, with the same 92+ mph average fastball he throws darts with but both a plus slider and change (when healthy).
I'd give him a shot at the rotation. He's no #6 starter like Beavan, not with weapons that can actually get opposing players out and the pitchability to do it on a low pitch count and go deeper into games. Beavan could get deep into games too, when the balls were being hit at people, but he was serving them up in ways Erasmo does not. E-Ram has two (half) seasons of experience under his belt and just needs some consolidation time while he's your BOR.
But we'll see how comfortable the Ms are with it. I don't mind all the kids in the rotation - for the first time in a while they'd be the RIGHT kids to have a shot at success - but it might be too risssky.
~G