Thanks to Matthew of Lookout Landing for catching the Clinton tweet and for supplying  a concise little op-ed on it.  :daps:

The consensus among M's kibitzers had been adamant against his promotion.  See, for example, comment #10 in this thread, if you'd like a summary of the anti-promotion point of view.

The live element in these (reasonably) skeptical groups is that --- > a pitcher who's just had a year-and-a-half off is going to be royally messed up.  His mechanics and his control are going to take a while to come back, and his arm strength is going to be down -- making him fragile and susceptible to injury.

This incorporates the assumption that a Sept. 2012 cup of coffee is the earliest ML arrival for Paxton.

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=== General Principles vs. Specific Cases ===

On SSI, you've got two main series on Paxton:  POTD Paxton - Mechanics and Prospect of the Day - Paxton (March 2011).

In a vacuum, the idea "don't rush a kid who just had 18 months off" is a decent generalization.  It is certainly a principle to be aware of in assessing a non-signed holdout.

However, in this specific case, there were several things different about James Paxton than, say, Luke Hochevar.  Paxton's mechanics are all-time.  And his arm strength showed Lincecum-type resiliency in his 2011 reincarnation:  Paxton picked up a ball and started throwing a kindergarten-easy 95 mph out of the gate.

That's not Hochevar.  It says here that Tim Lincecum could have taken a year off, picked up a ball, and picked up where he left off.

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=== Interpreting the low-minors 14 K's and 5 BB's ===

Paxton's BB's in the low minors had been a concern for most people.

In SSI's view, this was exactly analogous to people worrying about Tim Lincecum's 4 walks at the University of Washington, or Kerry Wood's 6 walks in the minors.  Hey, you multiply those by 1.5, and you get the MLB walks, right?

Um, no.  Low-minors and college umps do not call Nintendo breaking pitches accurately.  They really don't.  

An Erik Bedard curve breaks through the strike zone in a little flicker-flash -- first, Erikkk's yakker is way outside the zone, and then it is very briefly in it, and then it's way outside it again.  Ask any pro pitcher who ever lived.  It's an act of Congress to get a plus-plus curve called the right way.

Even some ML umps don't call Nintendo curves accurately.  Outside the majors, forget it.

Put Tim Lincecum, or James Paxton, or Kerry Wood, into an ML environment with (1) curves called accurately, and (2) hitters actually able to put the ball in play, and BAM the walks --- > drop.

Lincecum and Paxton are major-league pitchers dyed in the wool.  Their games are tailored to it.

***

James Paxton never had a fundamental control issue.  That's being silly.  His natural mechanics, and his college K/BB ratios, ruled that out.

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=== The Process Going Forward ===

In SSI's view, James Paxton (working on two pitches) does have to have some command of his fastball ... as much command as Clayton Kershaw had as a rookie.   He has to be able to throw some pitches to spots with two strikes.

Paxton's two-pitch game needs to be honed -- > against batters who are capable of putting the ball in play against him.  Paxton needs to locate that fastball against batters who can hit it if it is centered.  That's all.

It doesn't do Roger Federer any good to practice serving against college kids.  It would just make him sloppy.  Federer would become a worse player if he were competing against players who couldn't give him a game.

***

One school of thought is that Paxton simply needs to be getting his own act together.  My school of thought is that his basic act is together, has been all year pretty much ... and that now it's time for refinement.

Paxton isn't at a point in which he personally is getting his mechanics together:  his mechanics (as opposed to "release point") were perfect back in spring training.  Paxton is, in my view, at a point at which he needs to put the final edge on his game, and then he's ready to go Kershaw on the big leaguers.

Paxton will be nuking high-minors hitters within a few starts, and by spring (not fall) 2012 he'll probably be one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.  

That's nothing unusual.  Great CWS starting pitchers are frequently taking 25 starts in the minors, and then they're in there.  Lincecum, Weaver, Verlander, Price, etc. etc.  Paxton will have 25 starts in by the time this year's over.  There is ZERO ;- ) reason to hold Paxton past that.

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=== Fire the Bullets While You Have 'Em, Dept. ===

There's another imperative, not to dawdle when you have an ML-ready starting pitcher ready to make an impact.  These guys only have so many bullets in the gun.

With pitchers, there is no telling how well they'll be throwing in two years, much less in six.  If a guy is dealing, you better use him while he is.

Now, with a hitter, it's a little different.  If you want to give Mike Carp or Kyle Seager or Dustin Ackley a little extra time, there's nothing lost.  In fact, you get a higher part of his career arc by doing so.

Pitchers?  Huh-uh.   Michael Pineda and James Paxton are throwing lights-out now.  In 2014, all bets are off.

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=== Banzai!, Dept. ===

After Paxton detonates AA/AAA this fall, Jack Zduriencik will be free to exploit his Vargas/Fister options in the winter trade market.

At that point, M's fans will find out just what a $1M-salaried, 3.0-WAR, club-controls starting pitcher is worth in trade.  A whale of a lot.

Vargas or Fister for Montero or Mesoraco?  :- )  And, in July or December?

***

What Zduriencik will choose to do with Paxton next spring, is a strategic question.  But it will be the delicious Pineda / Ackley situation all over again:  Z's choice will be between (1) Opening Day impact, or (2) deferring the Super Two status.

The bottom line for the M's fan:  watch those box scores.  If Paxton dominates in the second half, then he is locked-and-loaded for ML battle on Opening Day 2012.

And that is why Zduriencik promoted Paxton right now.  It prepares James Paxton for 2012 duty, and therefore positions Zduriencik to play his winter and spring cards with a sixth ML ace in his hand.

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You go Capt Jack,

Dr. D