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...the idea of leaving toss-up decisions to a coin flip to force you to make up your mind rather than overthinking it...that has been in like four of my favorite five sitcoms. Seriously. LOL
Patriots 51% or -3.5 to Seattle
Make up yer mind, Dept.
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=== Odds, Blamed Odds and Statistics ===
Advanced NFL Stats gives the NE-Sea game as a coin flip: 51% New England. That's not enough vig for an oddsmaker to lay a line: a bookie would not (I don't think) take a bet on a coin flip based on you paying $51 or getting $49.
Yet the Vegas line is that if you want the Patriots, you've got to give more than a field goal. A 24-21 Patriots win on the field is a Seahawks win in the casino. That's awfully good value, a field goal, if the game is really 51-49.
Casual observers quickly reply: "the -3.5 is just to split the crowd." Dr. D always wonders about this cliche. So all you have to do to get rich, is trot over to Advanced NFL Stats and take the three games on which Vegas is most egregiously "splitting the crowd"? Nuh-uh. Everybody goes broke betting sports, and it's because if Vegas is indeed "splitting the crowd," it's doing so in ways that differ in no discernible sense from "gauging the outcome perfectly."
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Based on the Team Stat Visualizations at Advanced NFL Stats, the 2012 Patriots again have a tremendous team, with a historically-great offense and, as usual, a defense that is better than it is given credit for. When you have a "great" team against a "rawhide-tough but not very talented" team, how do you get 51% to 49%? The crowd, of course, which in this specific case is creating extreme synergy with its home-team defense.
Yeah, I know, the defense has playmakers. But if the Seahawks be a Super Bowl contender, they be one that is awfully short on offensive players generally, receivers and quarterbacks specifically and superstars all around.
If Tom Brady can't solve the CLink/Clemons problem, then maybe it can't be solved. Aaron Rodgers took eight sacks in one half, and did manage some adjustments, but hey. For THIS game, Tom Brady, the crowd is going to be amp'ed.
I'd say the 51-49 is closer to the truth than the -3.5. Brees and Rodgers didn't enjoy their stays here and there's reason to believe that the great Tom Brady may enjoy his stay even less...
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Whoever came up with the light bulb in the thumbnail pic, came up with a great one. Talk about a Zen self-diagnostic.
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