CA - Johnson has a .618 OPS. Yes, you'd like better. Last 28 days = .711. A .700 OPS from your catcher is perfectably acceptable. If Joh can find HIS stick, (.617 OPS in his last 28 das - which is only 9 games, of course), then catching isn't an untennable black hole. Since his return, Joh - NOT Johnson - has been the weak hitting catcher.
3B - Hannahan has been nice, (.746 OPS), which everyone believes is illusory. But Beltre is talking about being back before the July employment figures are released. If Beltre's miserable .664 OPS was *CAUSED* by playing hurt, then there is every reason to believe that when he returns, he could be a high .700s 3B in no time. THAT would fix the 3B problem. And, unlike the first 2/3 of the season.
SS - Wilson ain't great. But Cedeno was simply destroyed by the time he wsa gone. His .504 OPS is gargantuan failure. If Wilson only hits .600, that's a 100 point improvement at SS, (and Yuni was only hitting .609 while playing poor defense). If Wilson can hit .650, he's a MAJOR upgrade offensively.
LF - Langerhans has a .729 OPS in his brief tenure with the club. That stinks for a LF, unless the primary starter posted a .669, and his backup posted a .625. Langerhans, as weak as he is, was 100 points better than Wlad. But, if the club DOES sneak back into contention somehow with a nicely placed win streak, or an Angel fade -- the club DOES have a number of in-house possibilites who "might" be better than Ryan. Saunders seems a bit overwhelmed thus far - (4 for 22 with 9 Ks is not a particularly sterling start). But, if the club decides he's damaging the club (or himself) by continuing to stay in Seattle, then the one area at AAA with some other immediate options is OF. Clearly, there is no confidence that Saunders or Redmond or any other call-up will succeed. But, there are possibilities for LF that simply didn't exist in the organization at SS or 3B.
That leaves DH. I agree that DH is an issue. If Wak has had a real weakness in managing the club it has been the balancing act between Griffey and Sweeney. Z screwed up by keeping both, as the 2-headed, defense void for DH just hurts the roster flexibility too much. But, I don't see any hope of competing if Griffey is axed. You could bring up someone like Carp, sure. But, trading bats between Griffey and Carp ... how much help do you really generate?
Yes, the club could go after a "big bat" for LF ... but considering the club has managed to hold onto its 90 OPS+ while Branyan was hitting .600 and Cedendo was hitting .400 tells me the hitting HAS gotten stronger. The club doesn't need to produce a 100 OPS+ for the season. They just need to produce a 100 OPS+ for the next 2 months, (to give themselves a shot at staying in this race). You get .700 from catcher, .750 from 3B, .750 from LF, .675 from SS, I think it's doable. You need Branyan to start hitting again - and it wouldn't hurt for Lopez or Griffey to get hot, either.
The thing about this team -- thus far, when one guy has slumped, someone else has picked up the slack. But, the club really hasn't had much time where 2 or 3 guys got hot at the same time. They HAVE the talent where that is possible. And one big bat in LF won't matter at all, unless CA and 3b and SS are ACTUALLY improved. One Dunn will NOT save you from 2 Cedeno's.
=== It Ain't Over Till It's Over, Yogi ===
I've leaned against the Washburn trades BECAUSE I was assuming that you'd be getting back org thickener for Washburn.
I'm not gutpunching the 2009 Mariners to get a couple 21-year-olds who won't make our top 20 prospects.
The clubhouse has bought into your spiel. They've swallowed their pride and fallen into line. Now you're going to nod, satisfied at their submission, rear back, and deliver a thunderous kick to their coconuts?
.................
Plus, you get this offense going at all, and there's no rush to quit. Teams blow 7-8 game leads a lot later than July.
It's one thing to say, "we probably won't win." It's a different thing to say, "if we're not the favorites, it's time to quit." That was the culture pre-Zduriencik. Send that message, boys, and you'll be watching them quit in May. Remember?
.
=== It Ain't the Score, It's How Yer Playin' ===
My son and I argue all the time about whether the Seahawks are out of it, if down 24-10 in the third quarter. I always say something like, "It's not the score. It's that they can't give Hasselbeck any time." If they'd start playing well, the 14 points are doable.
The Mariners have had four months to fix LF, or 3B, or SS, or C, or DH, in terms of upgrading that putrid 90 OPS+ offense. They haven't done it.
If 3B is really going to be Jack Hannahan, COMBINED with Rob Johnson at C, COMBINED with no production in left, COMBINED with your shiny new glove at SS ... then yeah. The division is gone. You don't make the playoffs with 90 offenses.
So, yeah. If the M's can't do any better than the current offense, as is, then they might as well cash in Washburn.
...................
The offense ain't as bad as I think? C'mon. The ERA is #1 and you're -50 in run differential. What WOULD you call a bad offense? :- )
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An offense with 5 different holes? That should be easy to improve.
Now supposing that you moved Branyan to 3B. Or suppose you'd traded for a bat. Or suppose you'd brought Saunders up 10 days earlier, so you could gauge him against RHP's. Or suppose you took whichever Rainier actually hit -- say Mike Carp -- and put him in LF.
And supposing you found something, and your bats cruised up to a 98 OPS+, then yeah. Let's fight.
But not with a -50 run differential. That won't work.
.
=== So, North or South? ===
If the M's add offense on July 31, they can do battle. Nick Johnson, Scott Rolen, Adrian Gonzalez, and others are out there.
One big improvement -- and the other 4 slots could be improved incrementally. (SS already *is* improved incrementally.)
Toronto says that they will trade Scutaro only after Halladay: if the big domino falls, then they go into sell mode.
IMHO, if the M's can add offense, they should cointinue in Buy mode. But supposing that it's not possible to add offense, they might want to play finger-trigger games and part out some of the car in the 11th hour.
Me? I'd be trying to buy offense on July 31, and if I couldn't, I'd move Washburn for spects.
.
=== Roto Scenarios Dept. ==
Kevin Moorad says that Adrian Gonzalez (running a 150 OPS+) is more available than he used to be. Why not a 3-way with Washburn to the Yankees, their pitcher(s) on to SD at SD's choice, and two hot M's prospects to haul in Adrian Gonzalez?
Branyan 3B, Gonzalez 1B, figure something out in LF, and boom, your offense is fixed right then and there. Even 1B/DH, make Griffey a VP like Nolan Ryan, and you have a legit offense.
Hey, Gonzalez is available. He's $igned cheap. His eye ratio just went ballistic. He's the definition of a cleanup hitter. All of a sudden you have 1 Ichiro L ... 3 Branyan L ... 4 Gonzalez R to build around.
Why not throw in the extra prospect and make the commitment? :- )
July 31's for dreamin',
Jeff
Comments
Was last night the culmination of a week solid vs. leftys + the best pitcher in baseball? Curious to bring Saunders up and cut Balentein in that environment. Keeping Griffey on the bench, having our 3b, and LF indefensible to the other team and poof, there goes the playoff chances. I don't mind trading Washburn now, because like you say Doc, the offense can't carry this team at all, the bullpen looks to be wearing down, and defensive run-prevention is way over blown.
Do any of the defensive metrics account for outright misplays that directly lead to the opponent scoring runs? We have crowed about Guitierrez defense rightfully, but he has made several mistakes that have caused real damage, I would be curious if any of these show up in the metrics. I would bet not.
I was all for signing Griffey, he looks to be washed up. Sweeney is washed up. Shelton isn't very good. If you really want to win now, purging those three roster spots and adding legitimate hitters solves some issues. The clubhouse revolt would be a problem. Adrian Gonzalez sounds good. So does Carlos Lee. We'll see which direction the M's go.
No offensive upgrade, but 2 pitching prospects, both LH.
Mauricio Robles, 20-yr-old Venezuelan, listed at 5-10, 160(!), a strikeout artist in the low minors: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=robles001mau
Luke French, 23-yr-old 8th round pick who's worked his way up the ladder to AAA (6-4, 220) and seems to have made nice strides this year with 7.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=french001luc
Neither listed among the Tigers' top 10 prospects.
In Tiger rotation during July and holding his own.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=frenclu01&t=p&year=2009
Sounds too exotic for this site?
Highlights from when he struck out 6 Ms.
http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=5699211
The only reason Robles isn't in the top 10 is because he's short. It would be like keeping Wade Miller or Roy Oswalt out of the Astros top-10 when he was 20 (yeah I know they're righties and Wade's a bit taller, but both were viewed as small-framed injury risks).
His velocity spiked up last year to the low 90s, his breaking ball is advanced, and he makes hitters cry. When he finishes getting refined, watch out. Health is not guaranteed for tall pitchers, or big pitchers, so I'm willing to see if Robles can stay a starter or has to be moved to the pen for "health reasons." If he is, he's Brian Fuentes. If he stays in the rotation, I dunno what he is. Dangerous, I guess.
Or we could package him and Morrow in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, perhaps. He gives us another bullet in our trading gun, that's for sure.
And French fills our starting pitcher need with a decent, ready arm, in the vein of an Abbott or Halama on the back end. We have a lot of ready guys to fill those slots now. And with Snell likely to come up to fill Washburn/Bedard's spot, it's gonna be interesting. I think we've done well in filling em with players who can keep us above water if we can find any offense, and can help flush out the rotation relatively cheaply next year as well.
Now all we need is that offense...
~G
I don't see this improves the club's outlook for 2010. Which i pretty much all I care about if we're not caring about 2009.
A $400k # 4 pitcher instead of an $8 million #3 (ie, bringing back Wash) or having to find another starting arm in FA? I'm okay with that for 2010. Let's us apply funds elsewhere and not stress about re-upping with Wash. Also getting back a pitcher that can be a major trade piece? We did better than keeping Washburn, IMO.
It's not the bat I want - but we still have time to make that happen.
Not a lot of time...but let's see what the rest of the day brings.
~G
They now have a major league quality pitcher at league minimum which means 1) the starting rotation picture for 2010 is much more clear and 2) there is money that can now be put elsewhere.
As G said. I'd rather have French, Robles, and 10 million dollars of payroll space in 2010. Then being stuck on the hook for 12 million if Washburn accepts arby, or the 8-10 million per year in the extension we would have offered.
Eliminating the chances Washburn accepts arby and the payroll space that opens up is reason enough to make the move.
It sez here that Wash is having a contract year, not an epiphany...
Our beloved Stars & Scrubs compass tells us that, where you believe your kids might do about as well as the Pricey Vet, that you use the kids. With Morrow, RRS, Snell, and others, that is definitely the case here.
MUCH rather have a bat, than the delta of Washburn vs (say) Morrow.
.................
Amazing that Washburn had the year he did, but Capt Jack converted it into a real hotshot young gun and some cap space. Two thumbs up.
I am getting really tired of the myth that continues to persist that such a thing as a contract-year spike exists. It doesn't. For every player who has his career year right before a new contract, there are 20 who fail miserably right before their new contract and 20 who have their career year in the middle of a big contract.
And the numbers do not make the case that Washburn is identical to 2008 form now...his GB/FB has changed, his Z-Contact% has changed, his O-Sw% has changed. He's obviously more eceptive and more able to get some grounders. Both of which come from real changes he's made to his game.
worth a front page :- )