But as I started reading, immediately Ackley and Pineda come to mind as the two I would protect first. They're cheap and will be cheap for quite a while. Felix will be "relatively cheap" (in relation to WAR value) but not like those two guys. I'm not sure Felix would be in my top five, in fact.
Ackley, Pineda at the top, for sure. Then...it is a tough one. OK..Hultzen, Paxton, Carp, Smoak, Taijuan (because he's still in the lower minors), Franklin (might put him ahead of Taijuan, Smoak, Carp if he's a true MLB SS), Seager. Heck, I might only put Felix ahead of Seager. That might be it. The deal with Felix is that you can turn his $57M over the next three years into something quite pretty (or pretty hefty, if Fielder lights your fire). Then you would be stuck with a Pineda, Vargas, Beavan, Hultzen, Paxton rotation. Damn! That would be terrible, wouldn't it.
No knock on Felix, mind you. But we could "afford" to lose him. I don't want him to go. But we would recover. In that light, another question comes up. Would you do a straight up Felix for Votto swap right now?
By the way. In considering the Felix thing I went back and looked at Tom Seaver, a decent template for Felix. Guys, Seaver is better than I remember, and I remember him being one handful of best players I ever saw. In his first 12 seasons, in which he threw more than 250 innings 11 times (the other season he only had 236, the slacker), he had only one season where he had an ERA ABOVE 2.98. That time he ballooned to 3.20. Even Hoot Gibson has 7 of his first 12 seasons where he was above 2.98, and he had several seasons before they reaised the mound. I've thought for a while that Maddux was the best I ever saw. But, in reconsidering, it's an absolute photo finish at the wire between he and Seaver. Randy Johnson had a better 4 year run (starting when he was 35), but 12 years like Seaver had to start his career is unbelieveable.....and I hate to use that word in relation to sports.
Anyway. Felix isn't in my top 5 or 6
.............
Baseball Prospectus' U-25 list marvelled that the M's would run three such impressive big-leaguers -- Felix, Pineda, and Ackley -- out ahead of two 5-star prospects, those being Taijuan and Danny Hultzen. ... Paxton and Franklin were their 4-star guys.
Their list of U-25 talents -- not org prospects, mind yer -- had run,
| 1 |
Felix, SP |
| 2 | Pineda, SP |
| 3 | Ackley |
| 4 | Taijuan, SP |
| 5 |
Hultzen, SP |
| 6 | Paxton, SP |
| 7 | Trayvon |
| 8 | Franklin |
| 9 | Smoak |
| 10 | Carp |
To me it was even more impressive that Carp and Smoak would be 9 and 10 on their list.
One thing is clear: it is hiiiiiiiiigh blinkin' time for Seattle fans to lose their "No Cheering In the Press Box," more-objective-than-thou attitude about the Mariners' young talent. It is time to enthuse about the M's young talent.
Zduriencik has earned several times his salary in this arena. Hey, he's probably earned several times his salary with the Justin Smoak trade alone. He probably earned it again with the Danny Hultzen draft choice.
..........
Not thinking about it too much, I wonder whether Felix would even be #1 on such a list, because of the Net Value factor.
My idea on an U-25 list is this. "Suppose that the two new expansion MLB teams could take ANYbody off your roster but one player, who would you protect?"
And then, "Suppose they could take anybody but two players, who would you protect?" And so on.
From my standpoint, the Baseball America-style org prospect rankings often make little sense. Many times I would protect the #5 org prospect before I'd protect the #1, but they're thinking about one side of the "production rectangle" or the other -- emphasizing either chance to succeed (Seager) or upside (Taijuan).
.........
If the M's had to protect one player from an expansion draft, I think I'd go with Ackley over Felix.... actually, every single decision on here would be complex. Ackley is going to certainly produce a ton of production over salary, but then again, Felix may be a lifelong Mariner and Ackley is a Boras guy ...
I would go with Pineda also over Felix, definitely, if he had one more comfortable season of 180+ innings without the specter of arm soreness. But he doesn't have that.
You could create like 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x ... arguments about who should be protected.
How about this list just as a first impression ... the guys you would most hate to lose in an expansion draft:
| 1 | Ackley |
| 2 | Felix |
| 3 | Pineda |
| 4 | Smoak |
| 5 | Carp |
| 6 | Paxton |
| 7 | Hultzen |
| 8 | Taijuan |
| 9 | Franklin |
| 10 | Seager |
Am tempted to either flip Seager and Franklin ... or to drop Seager for Campos, Catricala or Chiang.
If you're interested, there are three minor-league names that BP loves: Guillermo Pimentel OF, Francisco Martinez 3B and Chih-Shien Chang, OF. They rank those three batters easily above any M's minor-league bat other than Franklin.
Trayvon Robinson of course they rank above any M's U-25 talent -- they think Trayvon is better than Smoak, Carp, or Franklin -- but consider him a major-league player and he's not on their prospect list.
.
=== The One and Only Time Dr. D Is Guaranteed To Be Wrong, Dept. ===
My list -- it will change tomorrow -- is going to look a LOT different after Taijuan (or somebody) becomes the best player in the game. ;- )
If there is a Big Move on the list, it might be Hultzen, who could even be at the top of the list. Stars 2 Seedlings said that they thought Hultzen could be ranked anywhere from #10 to #70 in baseball's minors. Such is the nature of draftees without a pro track record -- but consider Strasburg and Ackley as draftees. They could have been ranked #1 and #2 in the minors the day after the draft.
One thing is clear. If these kids pan out to any significant extent, it's Tampa Bay II. With a bigger budget.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Felix is an iconic franchise image now...ot just a player producing WAR/$. As much as I would be grief-stricken to lose Ackley or Pineda, it would destroy this franchise to lose Felix for nothing. Utter and complete ruin for the franchise in terms of fan support and marketability.