Hamilton in Safeco: .224/.338/.408/.746 (148 PAs)
Hamilton in Camden: .370/.427/.741/1.168 (89 PAs)
It's not something I'd base his contract on, but he's shown obvious comfort in Baltimore. Might be because of their pitching, or luck, or whatever - but that's a ridiculously comfortable line.
Still, I'd rather be pushing chips against the Oreos than against the Yanks or Dodgers.
He's still the guy I want, and I think we can get him. Boras isn't his agent, after all. That's my guy.
~G

In '11 Hamilton was a .298-.346-.536, 25 HR, 130 OPS guy in just less than 130 games. He did it in a launching pad.
That's kind of the likely upside set of numbers you might pencil in, even in a shortened fence Safeco. He hit 45 homers last year, a career high by 13. I'm not betting he goes there again.
He's had an MLB 90 OPS year and a 170. After that he's remarkably consistent: 131, 135, 130, 139, 135.
He's a fragile 31, will be 32 in May. 6 at 130 means you're paying for his year 36 and 37 seasons. It's quite likely that he's not giving you much return for your buck then. So, can you squeeze all that investment out of 3 years of 135 OPS and one declining year following? That's a realistic view.
And if he leads us to the promised play-off land (twice), then he's been well worth it.

He will homer in Safeco, no problem. 45 anywhere seems unlikely for him again.
What he does, or would do, is bring the MOTO bashing presence that I liked in B. Butler. There's a value added component to that. What's the WAR multiplier for someting like that?
The best thing about a Hamilton is that you get that presence AND you keep all those shiney things you have bursting at your MiLB seams.
I'm not pooh-poohing him. Gimme 30 taters from the Safeco tees and I'll be pretty ducky. But we're likely eating the last couple of years of that contract. You have to make a run to make that balance out.
moe

Showalter's a notoriously militant manager, not nearly as lenient as Washington. Sgt. Wedge, of course, falls into that same camp... there are questions about how Hamilton might interact with a stricter guy, one who doesn't tolerate his players missing games over too much caffeine or quitting tobacco. That could be a disincentive for Baltimore, or indeed Seattle. But the bigger thing is, Peter Angelos has shown that he doesn't like players with "character issues" like Hamilton's, and he might override his GM on the Hamilton issue because he doesn't like the guy. No mistake, the Orioles aren't afraid to throw money around. And I bet Hamilton would rather play in Baltimore than in Seattle, even if our long term future is slightly brighter. But there's a chance Angelos just says no.

The run-creation values, which are based on actual game data, do a much better job of weighting the value of a walk vs. a single or a double. Interestingly, Swisher and Gordon's 2012 wRC+es are right in line with Hamilton's 2011. Of course, 2011 was hypothetically a down year for a guy with Hamilton's bat, while for Swish and Gordon that's probably the mid projection.

And when I say high-risk I mean incredibly high-risk, like I cannot think of a player who stood to get so much money with so much risk involved ever before. And he's even riskier for the Mariners, and Jack Z in particular. I mean, I think it's likely that if Z goes and splurges on a major free agent and said free agent implodes, at that point he's gotta be worrying about his job. And losing Z would probably be disastrous for the franchise, considering the way he drafts.
I mean, have a look at all of the ways Hamilton is risky. First you've got the injuries; he's basically guaranteed to miss time already and as he ages it's only going to get worse. Then there's the approach. After that monster tear he went on early, and Dave wrote an article about his crazy plate approach for FanGraphs, pitchers just flat out stopped throwing him strikes and he hit the skids. Hamilton saw 34% strikes last year. That's insane. That's the lowest in baseball by a country mile. You know what else is insane? His contact rate: 64.7%. It went absolutely through the floor in 2012, lowest among all players who got 300 PAs. Lower than Miguel Olivo, by a lot. Josh Hamilton has the plate discipline of an eight-year-old, and he's still been phenomenally successful because he's so physically talented, but I'm worried that once the talent starts to slip even a little bit, that with that approach he's just done for. Then there's positional risk. Pretty much everyone agrees Hamilton's getting between 20 and 25 million a year from someone, more if that someone is the Mariners. That's basically all of our budget. If you sign Hamilton, I hope you really like one of Smoak/Carp/Montero at 1B, because they're our only high-level internal options and the only two remotely decent FAs (LaRoche and Napoli) are going to cost more money than the Mariners will be able to afford after signing Hamilton (if, that is, they're staying below 95M, which seems likely). Then there are the makeup concerns...
I mean, Hamilton's great at baseball. Or he's been great, at any rate. It'd be great to have him, but it would be an incredibly risky move to acquire him, risker by far than adding Swish or Jackson or even Greinke. On the other hand, Hamilton has 8 WAR upside as a corner outfielder (I dislike his CF defense, especially given that we already have Guti and Saunders). I guess this offseason we get to see how gutsy Jack Z's willing to play it.

Butler's up year is better than a run-of-the-mill down Hamilton year. Butler could hit 150+OPS in a very good year. A Hamilton down year (not a risk-related collapse) could be 120, maybe a bit lower. That would be 15% below his historical norm.
Butler is the better bet as he's younger and less likely to implode.
Hamilton is less expensive when you factor in the future production of the guys you would have to swap out for him. This cost could be significant if a Hultzen or Franklin goes all blue-chip at some point.
But Hamilton is expensive in a sunk cost kind of way. It is unlikely that you get your money out of years 5 and 6 in a 6/$130M type of deal. He'll be 36 and 37 in those years, IIRC,
Dick Allen, Don Mattingly, Kirby Puckett, Jim Wynn and John Olerud (essentially) were done by age 36. All were great hitters. One's in the Hall.
Willie Mays OPS+ed 124 and 156 in his year 36 and 37 seasons. Frank Robinson smacked 127 and 151. Frank Thomas had injury-realted limited PA's at 36 and 37, but ripped again at 38 and 39.
Hall of Fame type talents last into their late 30's and still produce, or some do. Normal humans, even great hitters such as Wynn and Allen and Olerud see their skills erode significantly. They are often out of the game at that age.
I'm not sure Hamilton is HoF talent. My bet is that you've buried $22M-ish in him at age 36/37, and you get far less in return.
But if he's the MOTO masher that gets you to two LCS's, or something like that, then he's relatively very cheap.
There's the bet: Can Hamilton get you there or can Butler simply out produce the guys you swap him for?
If the trade were right for Butler, IF he is gettable (a big IF), I think I like that route best.
But Butler's upcoming career year (which will happen) is a lot better than a down year that Hamilton will have, and that will happen, too.
moe