=== Bases Gained & Lost:  M's at .500 ===

As Cyril Morong :- ) notes in his very fine comment to this article, the Mariners might be -54 in run differential and (therefore, in this case) +9 to Pythag ... but their bases gained-and-lost would have them at .500.

This morning:

257 / 313 / 400 - Mariners' hitters

247 / 317 / 395 - Enemy hitters

Per Baseball Prospectus' Equivalent Runs expectation, the M's have scored -23 fewer runs than their bases gained would predict, and as a completely separate issue, they have yielded +28 more runs on the scoreboard than their bases lost would have expected.

As a result, the M's expected record is 68-80 per run differential ... but 74-74 per bases gained and lost.  They're even 75-73 based on strength-of-opposition.

...............

BTW, don't call this another case for OBP vs SLG.  Just last night, the M's had an OBP slightly higher than their opponents', and the same run differential existed.

And BP's EQR weights OBP.  That ain't it.

.

=== No, It Ain't RISP ===

The easy explanation is Runners In Scoring Position and luck, or both, since saberdudes usually presume RISP, even in the short term, to be nothing other than luck. 

But the simple RISP aside, the Mariners have not hit any worse in LEVERAGE situations than in non-leveraged.

Their pitchers have been better in high-leverage situations than in low.

As far as RISP itself, the M's pitchers have been a bit better with RISP (230/321/354) though about the same with men on base generally.

The hitters have been about the same with men on base (254/317/397) though a bit worse with RISP (234/314/357).

So here:

234 / 314 / 357 - Mariners with RISP

230 / 321 / 354 - Enemy batters with RISP

The M's have the same AVG/OBP/SLG as their opponents, and the same RISP -- but they've been outscored by -53.  How's that?

.

=== HR & BB - vs -  1B & 2B ===

147 - 163 ... Homers, M's vs opponents

390 - 492 ... Walks, M's vs opponents

1305 - 1243 ... Hits, M's vs opponents

..............

This is a phenomenon that has fascinated me since the 1997 STATS Scoreboard book:  take two teams with equal OPS, and the team with more HR and BB will score (far) more runs -- even when the OBP is identical.

From chess, I appreciate the piece coordination aspect of this:  you want your knight, bishop and queen doing the same thing together.  With home runs, the bases always work together to produce a result (players stepping on home plate).

Is it as easy as saying that TTO players are better than Ichiro types?  Maybe, but wait for the punch line.

.............

At any rate, the 2009 Mariners played a lot of their games with Beltre, Betancourt, Lopez, Johjima et al racking up the singles, doubles, and virtually no BB's or HR's.   Their OPS matched their opponents'; their runs didn't.

.

=== Punch Line Dept. ===

When we did this study for the 1997 STATS folks, we paired twenty sets of team-pairs ... let's just say the 1982 Tigers vs the 1993 Royals ... and found that the (BB & HR) 1982 Tigers would score plenty more runs.

But what's weird?  The twenty teams in (BB & HR) column A did not win more games, despite having a higher run differential.   The teams with BB & HR lost to Pythag.   Forty teams' worth, anyway.

..................

The 2009 Mariners are emphatically another log on the fire.   Their opponents hit more HR, walked more times, and scored far more runs -- but lost badly to Pythag.

The possible explanations for this are fascinating.

Cheers,

Dr D