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Q. What are the chances that Napoli will be good at age 35?
A. When PECOTA draws comps, it includes "phenotypic" categories - in other words, the programmer likes the idea of matching players by height and weight.
SSI goes beyond that: it wants players who pitch similarly ... groundballers, or curveballers, or what have you. For hitters .... Darryl Strawberry had a different swing than Kyle Seager.
We're all guessing, of course. But is it better to say "we have no idea who Ichiro's comps are" or is it better to say, "Kenny Lofton was kinda like Ichiro, at least more like him than Bob Horner was."
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Q. What would be the items on SSI's comp list for Mike Napoli?
A. .260/.360/.500, right handed, is a VERY common template. It is a distinct skill profile. Tag it the THREE TRUE OUTCOMES, BUT PLAY WITHIN YOURSELF template.
Beyond that, Dr. D would like to see:
- .260/.360/.500 (ish)
- Real big RH guy
- Uses core and shoulders to MMMMUSCLE the ball, compact finish
- Not HOF-level talent like Mike Schmidt
- Very "flat" career arc
- Catching is a special case; Napoli has never caught 100 games
If you agree that this is a basic template, there are still a whale of a lot of players here. We cannot "capture" Napoli's comps, and even if we did, does Mike Napoli have to play like the average of his comps? No - he wouldn't play like the average of his comps. But we can develop our intuition past "throwing darts blindfolded".
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Q. Billy Butler?
A. Looks the same physically. Hits a little different. More HIT tool, less PWR tool. Butler isn't a Jay Buhner type; he's more of a hitter. And he has been ZERO threat to get you forty bombs.
Overall, about the same value as Mike Napoli -- if Napoli threw away his catcher's glove, and if Napoli played 150 games.
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Q. Is Napoli the type of hitter who drops off at 35? At 32?
A. :shrug:: Jay Buhner, who was a VERY comparable hitter, had an excellent year at age 35. Bone hit .250/.360/.520 - in Safeco.
Richie Sexson, of course, didn't play well at 35; he was a platypus, with the tall strike zone and long levers.
Dean Palmer, Danny Tartabull, and Cecil Fielder didn't play well in their age 33-35 seasons... this isn't a study. We're drawing pictures worth 1,000 words, pictures of two-hand bludgeony RH hitters with mammoth strength.
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Troy Glaus had an extremely similar swing to Napoli's - Glaus was a 240-lb. behemoth who used his core and shoulders to sink his weight and "scoop" the ball with a two-hand sledgehammer. ... well, Glaus did a slightly better job of using his upper arms as a handle and the bat as a whip. They both used strength, not whippiness.
Both were .260/.360/.500 two-hand righties; everything about the two, as hitters, is very comparable except that Glaus was a little bit better hitter, had a little better EYE. You wouldn't quite give Napoli a Troy Glaus level of credit, but Napoli is 95% of Glaus.
Glaus had the same career slash line as Napoli, and his comparables include Dale Murphy, Mike Schmidt, Darryl Strawberry ... from age 31, Glaus' top ten Bill James comps played 6 more years (!) at a slash line of .260/.350/.470.
Do not assume that Mike Napoli will not hit well for 5 more years. Glaus, Buhner and a bunch of guys like that were excellent at age 35.
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Q. What's the best case against?
A. I saw an outstanding article on SBNation somewhere - Lonestarball.com I think - that pointed out Napoli's woes in 2012 came against LH'ers. It pointed out that LH'ers made a big adjustment - they kept the ball down more. And it concluded that LH'ers had solved Napoli.
It was a superb article, but I just have to disagree -- by looking at the forest instead of the trees. When is the last time you saw every LHP in the league "solve" a Jay Buhner or Troy Glaus or Cecil Fielder, permanently? Much less solve him by throwing fastballs at the knees?
Napoli's life splits aren't worse against groundballers. The premise that Napoli won't be able to hit a LHP low fastball, that this will be the key to his undoing ... I can safely say, "Nah."
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Best case against would just be that he's early 30's.
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Q. How are his strike zone numbers lately?
A. They looked really good in 2012. Essentially he just suffered from a low BABIP - especially against LHP's. It's MUCH better for Napoli fans that he have an off year against LHP's than against RHP's. The latter could signal a slowing bat. The former is almost certainly just noise.
My basic reaction, it doesn't look like Napoli's bat has slowed so far.
John Benson rule: what did the player look like when you last saw him? ... Napoli slugged .700 last September, 7 homers in 16 games. If the .470 SLG last year worries you, the huge September should comfort you.
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Q. Catching?
A. We know generally that catchers can expect to hit the wall a year or two early ... that tends to assume fulltime catching. Is Josh Bard done? How long do the Geoff Zahns hang around the game?
Intuitively I wouldn't worry about a 70-games-a-year catcher. ::shrug:: if you've got a study on part-time C's and career arcs, great.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. The Red Sox don't want the 4th year, apparently. They see 3 years as a good idea but say, That's It. The Mariners sit here wondering, is Napoli going to give us 10 WAR over the life of the deal?
Napoli has always been kinda fragile. EDITING OUT the factor of his health, I'd be moderately optimistic about a Troy Glaus career path for him.
Your mileage may vary.