Love the comment, "Really?"
Great stuff, Spec.
I'm a growing Jennings fan. Watched him homer last night last night vs. the Tigers.
You've structured a very plausable trade.
I would buy in. I would buy in if it was Deej rather than Kivlehan, in fact. It's not a sure thing that Deej ends up better than our ex-football player, anyway.
Elias and Pike/Sanchez would be a very interesting package for Price. And Elias brings the Cuban attractiveness to Fla.
I'm a big Elias fan. He's a rookie lefty and going to get way better. But we're in a unique position to think big for a couple of years. You could do this and try to strike gold with a RH DH over the winter. Or hope that Blash is worth 30 homers next year.
If a guy is greedy and willing to pay Price's $16M (+)** next year.....then this is deal for you.
**Worth consideration: Jennings gets more and more expensive beginning next year. So you've got his cost and Price's next year AND any booming DH you sign.
Comments
Not sure if you want comments here or there Spec...
Provided you like Elias and Franklin as impact club-controls players, you give the Rays a whale of a lot -- Farquhar is a 10K reliever, Diaz is John Sickels' TOP Mariner prospect (after Taijuan and K-Pax, who are actually major leaguers rather than prospects, and D.J. Peterson) and you give them two more interesting pieces besides.
For the M's part, they convert a rookie Gio Gonzalez type into a Cy Young pitcher and load up for war. My kinda trade.
If I'm the Rays, I snap that trade up; if I'm the M's, I want some indication that Price will negotiate the extension.
Officer thinking amigo...
I might still prefer we just get Allen Craig* and hold on for Paxton.
Felix, Kuma, Paxton, Walker and Elias is a wicked rotation next year (if all the stars align and no injuries appear), the best in the league, in fact. It is also, incredibly cheap.
Say you add Price and you get an ERA improvement of 1.0 over Elias. That's a fair assumption, probably a bit agressive, in fact. Price is at 3.5 ERA, 3.1 FIP and 1.1 WHIP this year. Over the last 4 years he's settled nicely into that area. He had the low ERA in '12, but the other numbers remained constant. OK, give him 3.3 ERA.
His rookie year he was 4.4, 4.5, 1.3.
Elias is at 4.2, 4.3, 1.2 this year.
Gonzales' rookie numbers were 5.7, 4.5, 1.7.
Adding Price next year makes a wicked rotation a bit more wicked, and gives you three true aces. Well, maybe 5. But we might have 4, anyway.
For the last season and a half, Jennings beats up LHP. He gets on base about 37% of the time and slugs in the .490 range. He's one of those guys without a huge MiLB pedigree, BTW. .282-.372-.428 in 1000 AAA PA's**.
Jennings will be a bit cheaper than Craig*, but not a lot. He won't be the bat that Craig is, but he's a heck of an OF glove.
So the question to ask is twofold: #1. Does all the loot you give up significantly improve your playoff shot this year? #2. Does it significantly improve your shot next year, as there is no guarantee Price is yours beyond that (Tanaka got 7 yrs/$155M. That's the area code you'll find Price's next contract, perhaps north of that, factoring in inflation). Kuma gets $7M in '15. Figure on $12M to $15M in the two years following. If you could sign Price you could also let Kuma go after next year, thusly paying 2/3 of Price's salary. I'm not sure why Price doesn'tgo FA, unless he loves the situation in Seattle.
The answer to #1 is "Absolutely!" It may, in fact, make you the World Series betting favorite.*** The Answer to #2 is "Some, but it might not be a huge amount, depending on Elias' growth."
Making the trade is a bold move, a Yankees/Red Sox move. W/O a contract for Price, it's a rent-an-arm move, at significant cost. But we have guys like Pries, Hultzen and whoever of Diaz, Pike, etc that we don't trade still in the hopper. And young bats, too. On the surface, we be loaded, as they say.
I would do it, but figure on watching Elias mow people down in '16, '17, '18.....
W/O a WS appearance over the next two years I would wonder, "Why did we trade this kid?"
But if you want to splash big, way bigger than the Orcs did, then this trade is your cannonball. And it's unlikely to be just a belly flop.
* If a Craig is gettable at a not "redonkulous" price.
** Ty Kelly (our forgotten man): .289-.417-.420 in 620 AAA PA's. He K's in 20% of his AB's and BB's in 18% of his PA's. Jennings' were 19% and 11%. The bulk of Jennings' AAA PA's were at ages 23 and 24. Kelly's at 24 and 25. Jenning's were in the International League, which is less of a hitter's league. But their AAA #'s aren't far apart.
*** Walker would be a 6th-7th inning set up guy. Sheeesh.
Your mileage may vary.
moe