Part 3 of our series on the ability to elite athletes to recognize and anticipate patterns so as to react "without thinking" to game situations, as outlined in an article (available online) in a recent Sports Illustrated. Part 1. Part 2.
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What we've learned is that hitters have 200 milliseconds to determine, based on their observation of the pitcher and the pitch (and the game situation), to decide whether, when and how to swing.
And they do this by using the acquired skill of anticipatory pattern recognition, which is based on seeing tons of baseballs pitched in generally the same manner, to anticipate where the ball will be at the time of impact.
Like the chess grandmaster, the hitter can decipher the information instantly and "without thinking" -- so long as the ball acts in a manner consistent with what he's used to seeing.
When the chess board was set up in a manner inconsistent with actual chess, the grandmaster couldn't decipher the "random squares and horse heads" any better than the amateurs.
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So what can the pitcher do? It seems like there are two way to approach it.
So how does a pitcher "go nuclear"?
Here's what I got:
1. Turn conventional wisdom completely on its head (Jamie Moyer). Good.
Be so far outside the box, that the hitters can't tell your pitches from Jennie Finch's softballs. To do this, you have to (A) be not just unconventional, but so far beyond the curve that your opponent can't rewire the brain fast enough to adjust; (B) be willing to use your opponent's frustration in your favor [I recall reading about how tennis player Martina Hingis would dink and dunk and change speeds, and use her more-athletic opponents' resentment of her diva-hood as a weapon; she wasn't well liked, but she won a lot of tournaments]; and (C) be really good at what you do (since there's not much margin of error).
So that can work, but it takes a rare combination of personality, opportunity and skill.
2. Find a "nuclear" pitch (knuckleball). Better.
The knuckleball defeats the mental pattern by definition. No one knows what it will do. It blows up the "chess board" for sure. All the hitter can do is guess and hope. Problem is, the pitcher needs to hope as well. Hope enough of them end up as strikes.
Sometimes it works out, but learning to throw it is like learning a whole different game, and success is not assured and often fleeting. There's a reason only a few try and succeed.
3. Find a "nuclear" pitch that can be thrown for strikes (Mo Rivera). Best.
Here's the Sports Illustrated graphic of Rivera's cutter.
The hitter only has 200 milliseconds to decide what to do, but Rivera's cutter and fastball look exactly alike at the 200 millisecond mark. He has the ability to "blow up the chess board" every time. Sometimes it will move; sometimes it won't. Every time the hitter sees the random squares and horse heads. The hitter can't play chess because he's been turned from grandmaster to average Joe.
But what makes Rivera's cutter perhaps the best "nuclear pitch" ever? He can throw it for strikes. His career BB/9 is 2.0, and he's never had a full season over 3.0.
OK, now that we've got that out of the way ... what about Dominc Leone?
Every time he pitches, it seems he's working hard to keep far from a consistent rhythm, changing his arm angle, delivery, time between pitches. The announcers have commented about it several times, and maybe that's a big part of his success this year. Of course that high level of variation probably makes it hard to throw strikes where he wants then even without the knuckle ball.
I noticed that he wasn't consistent in his windup motion. Throw out pitching from the stretch - all pitchers vary in order to try and confuse the runner. Slide step, short leg kick, whatever they can do. But with no one on base, Perez will sometimes (usually with two strikes) go to a far more pronounced turn, showing his back to the plate much more than normal. Maybe it's to confuse the batter, maybe because he wants to get a little bit more "oomph" on his fastball, but I have to agree that it makes me wonder how it impacts his control. I would think that it would be much more difficult to have his front foot land in the same place, and therefore throw off his mechanics a bit.
I'm not as concerned about his arm angle. I grew up with Juan Marichal. His arm angle was all over the place and it didn't seem to hamper his control. He loved to drop down sidearm with two strikes on a right-hander. Not to mention his leg kick is something you'd NEVER see now. He looked like the letter "Y"; left leg high in the air, leaned way back at the waist. It was a miracle he didn't just fall off the mound. Especially on a windy day at The 'Stick.
Bingo Spec!
"The pitcher and the hitter will be competing grandmasters. The pitcher knows the hitter will be advanced at figuring out the pitch, but will nevertheless try to "win the chess game." Usually, he'll need command/control of three or more "plus" pitches; the ability to change speeds; change locations; some level of deception; avoid mistakes.'
Which is why experience just doesn't always make a great hitter. Pitchers recognize those patterns in hitters as well.
It is not enough to say that Saunders flowers just because he gains the experience to recognize pitching patterns, he must also eliminate the patterns that pitchers are able to recognize.
Lots of guys can do one, but (at the MLB level) if you can't do both (to some degree) you're flawed.
Not only do you have to have the great athletic ability, but you have to both recognize patterns well and hide (or eliminate) your own.
Hey, it's a hard game.
moe
