So how much ammo is in those guns? In 2013 his OPS split was basically even, home and road.
In previous years?
2012: .873 home vs. .689 road (18 vs 6 in HRs)
2011: .953 vs .688 (19 HR vs 10)
2010: 1.099 vs. .805 (13 vs 9, only 400 ABs)
For his career it's a .912 vs .734 split, or 180 points of pain. And have I mentioned that only once, EVER, has he played more than 130 games in a year, and he had one of his worst years doing it?
Fragile, iffy defender, low walks, aging (he'll be in his age 33 season in '14), popped for PEDs the one year he was actually maintaining a decent H/R split, and looking for a big, long-term deal. This is not what I'm looking for for my 12-14 million a season investment over the next 3-4 years.
OTOH, he might be one of the few guys willing to say yes to coming here.
Can beggars BE choosers? Is that a thing?
~G
Unlike Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz is an above-average offensive contributor.
That being said, pretty much the entirety of his value comes from his ability to hit the ball hard.
And he is very good at that:
| HR/PA | XBH/PA | ISO | |
| Cruz | 4.9% | 10.6% | 0.228 |
| MLB Average (during Cruz career) | 2.6% | 7.8% | 0.148 |
Problem is, he's not really good at anything else. He swiped a few bags back in his 20s, but it doesn't look like he'll be doing that in his mid-30s.
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That being said ... do not underestimate the value of hitting home runs in more than 4% of plate appearances. That is a very rare commodity.
When that slugging ability is combined with the ability to draw walks or avoid strikeouts or speed or playing in the middle of the field, it's Instant Hall of Fame career.
But Cruz brings none of those things.
He is below-average at drawing walks and below-average at avoiding strikeouts.
He's maybe not as one-dimensional as Dave Kingman (back in the day), but he's pretty one-dimensional. Even guys like Mark Reynolds and Rob Deer at least would have double-digit BB%. Cruz does not. His career BB% of 7.9% is really scary-low for a slugger.
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But! Again, that one dimension is very good, and very valuable. I can tolerate guys who strike out a lot if they bang a lot of homers. The problem with Casper Wells wasn't that he didn't have power, it was that he didn't have enough power to overcome his K%.
Cruz is not Casper Wells. He has enough power to sustain a 22% K-rate.
(Of course, it is an open question how much of that power survives leaving Texas and getting off whatever he was getting from Biogenesis, but he's clearly a big, strong guy and his power is not likely to drop off a cliff.)
(On the other hand, it looks to me like he would need a run of good fortune to sniff 40 HR. Upper 20s/low 30s looks like a better guess to me, assuming he plays full seasons.)
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Obviously, there is a need to replace the power provided by Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse. Even though the offense wasn't as good as it needed to be, it would have been worse without the ISO they provided.
Thing is, Ibanez and Morse were very much low-risk propositions. That's not likely to be true for Cruz.
But I can see overpaying a bit for a power bat in the OF (even he's not the ideal solution) in the current context (team lacking both power and outfielders).
Just don't expect him to be the aircraft carrier at the heart of your fleet. Prince Fielder he is not.
Comments
I'll be pretty upset if they sign this guy, especially since it would almost surely be a significant overpay in both years and dollars.
Thanks for splitting this out Spec... with "comments" of that magnitude, it's much easier to deal with an article than a comment in the thread...
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The 'fragile' accusation has traction, I think. My own frame is a lot like his, and it just puts a lot of strain on the connective tissue. I've always got a tweaked achilles or a slightly-sprained knee or something. Ichiro? Not so much.
Personally I don't worry about the road splits, not given the WAY that Nelson Cruz makes his money, but ... ya, the road splits have accrued over a long period of time. You've got to *fret* about it a little.
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And, of course, if he wants to be paid for 40 homers a year, then nada. ...It's one thing to pay him, hard on the barrelhead, for 25 dingers a year -- and hope for 35. If he comes at you wanting to be paid for 35? Fuhgeddaboudit.
See? Every day's a no-brainer at SSI...
I was reading a Dave Cameron article ( I've grown tired of him implying how much smarter he is than the M's, and I was bored) where he stated that David DeJesus had essentially the same value as Nelson Cruz. Great reminder of why I can't read that site too often. Can we even consider that the M's need a certain type of hitter, not always just the best value per dollar?
Say we sign Choo for $120M to be our #3 hitter. We don't really have a #4 hitter. If we don't get one, Choo might just get pitched around. Does it not make sense to spend some money on Nelson Cruz to help ensure our $120M investment thrives? DeJesus brings nothing to the table in regard to getting Choo good pitches to hit. Cruz is dangerous enough hitter that his presence decreases how much Choo would be pitched around. What's the $ value on that? If we had 4 power hitters and needed a well-rounded 3rd/4th OF then DeJesus makes much more sense. You can't just go around building a team with strictly great value in mind, or suddenly your offense is setting futility records. I'm tired of reading people advocating the M's buy a screwdriver to pound a nail.
I still think the M's are gonig to figure out a trade for B. Butler. It will include Franklin and ERam +. You heard it here first.
"You can't just go around building a team with strictly great value in mind".
I'm having a tough time wrapping my brain around this statement. Are you aware that you wrote this or were you maybe trying to communicate something else? I just don't see how anyone can possibly believe this is the case. Is the level of Dave Cameron resentment around here so high that we now no longer believe in basic concepts like player value? Do we not understand that players make a variety of contributions to wins and losses? Have we forgotten that the Mariners were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2013?
Here's an alternative view, which I think makes more sense: "the ONLY way to build a winning team is with a keen understanding that your goal is to try and add value at each and every roster position."
Is that an unreasonable statement?
Nelson Cruz is only good at one thing - hitting for power. In no other way does he add value. He won't help you defensively and he won't help you on the bases. But he is looking for a payday and the Mariners have the stink of desperation on them so you could get your wish. On the positive side, he could hit 40 dingers next year. It could happen. But, if you are looking at the entirety of what this player is, it's worth noting that he's only been worth more than 3 WAR in a season once and that was in 2010, and now he's 33 and coming off a suspension for PEDs.
I don't know what anyone else at SSI thinks of Dave Cameron. His snarky attitude is a turn-off so I rarely read his articles any longer.
I believe paying good money for reliable hitters is reasonable when you have such a young ballclub. Cruz may be one of the few who will take our money. We've been burned so badly in recent years relying on everyone to fulfill their potential, only to have many fall short and we end up struggling to score runs.
We need all types of players, but middle of the order hitting is pretty high up on the list. Cruz as MOTO fits the bill for me much better than DeJesus. If that doesn't work for you, so be it.
I don't believe you can field a very competitive team with 25 bargain or below value players. You have to pay fair value, or more than fair value, for some of your guys.