Thanks for the rising and falling updates. Just enough for an interesting read, yet still leaving the juicy stuff for offseason discussion. Interested to see just how far up you have Choi and Blash. Choi had rough starts at both AA and AAA, then began to torch the leagues after very brief adjustment periods. Could he replicate that quick adjustment in MLB next April? I'm sure we won't get a chance to find out :( Won't be too much longer. Blash did all you could hope for in AA, although the 3 doubles vs 9 HR is kinda fluky. No doubt he has some power. Deep sleeper fave Isaiah Yates struggled with K's but hopefully makes the top 40. Victor Sanchez a little light on the K's but only 18 BB makes up for that.
Most of all I'm interested in seeing if Edwin Diaz makes a leap into the top 10 past Sanchez, Pike and Gohara or slot behind all of them? 45 hits in 69 IP! 4+ K/BB!
Updated prospect rankings and writeups can't get here soon enough! And some AFL / Winter Leagues.
blissedj, in a Shout that was not at all surly or damanding despite the illustration, asks for an update on where things stand among Mariner prospects. Of course, I assume he's not under artillery fire.
I will say that I intended, both years, to do a mid-season re-rack, but the daily recaps make it hard to do justice to that type of project. So the downside of that is Mike Zunino in the majors for two months, but still listed as the #1 prospect. Annoying, yes, but I hope there are more important things to worry about in the world than that.
Anyway, bliss, we will be rolling out all kinds of stuff over the fall and winter, culminating, naturally, in a new Spec66. Soon we'll have a series of posts on a few "Radar Scope Alerts."
But here's a mini-update.
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Graduations:
It is traditional to go by "rookie status" when including or excluding guys from prospect lists. Based on that, the guys who lost rookie status (as I understand the rule) this year are:
1. Mike Zunino
5. Carter Capps
6. Brad Miller
7. Nick Franklin
9. Brandon Maurer
Watch List: Yoervis Medina
I'm not sure about Stephen Pryor (#8). It's not clear to me whether he has 45 days of non-DL, non-roster-expansion service time. He is definitely under the 50.0 IP part of the rule.
Taijuan Walker and James Paxton will definitely retain rookie status, and Abe Almonte, Carlos Triunfel and Jesus Sucre as well. Their service time will mostly be during September (except Sucre, who only played a bit before getting hurt), and roster-expansion time doesn't count if you don't go over the AB or IP limits, which they won't.
But still, that's at least half of the top 10 moving off the list.
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Departed:
10. Vinnie Catricala (aloha means goodbye ... can't get 'em all right)
29. Alex Liddi (ciao)
40. Francisco Martinez (not so sad about him, but it reminds folks about Doug Fister)
26intheMix: Mike McGee (retired after not advancing from High Desert)
And so there's another one of the top 10 that will turn over.
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Pitchers:
Given that the Big Three all retain rookie status (although Maurer does not; and Erasmo Ramirez had graduated in 2012), clearly they remain at the top of the list.
In March I had them: 2. Walker, 3. Paxton, 4. Danny Hultzen.
If you saw my recent posts, you know that order has changed.
Starters moving up:
- Victor Sanchez (was #12) did everything you'd want
- Luiz Gohara (was #21) lived up to the hype
- Edwin Diaz (was #36) suddenly looked Taijuan-ese
- Dylan "Sharkie" Unsworth (was 26intheMix): more than just a cool nickname now
- Roenis Elias (was 26intheMix): solidified himself as much as anyone
Starters moving down:
- Anthony Fernandez (was #23): maybe he wasn't right physically, but it's rare for a guy to pitch better at High Desert than at Jackson
Relievers moving up:
- Carson Smith (was #13)
- Dominic Leone (was #25)
They were already high for relievers, but they were very good and will probably go higher.
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Hitters:
Gordon and I have both indicated that D.J. Peterson (2013 draftee) and Ji-Man Choi (was #19) are at the top of the hitting list now.
Peterson looks like a power hitter with all-around skills and Choi looks like an all-around hitter with power.
But moving up the fastest (other than Deej) was Jabari Blash, who went from novelty act to legit prospect, by showing that maybe, just maybe, he'll have enough power and patience to make up for his strikeout rate and streakiness.
Also moving up: Chris Taylor (was #28) and Ketel Marte (was 26intheMix).
Dropping:
- Jack Marder (was #17)
- Leon Landry (was #18)
- Taylor Ard (was #32): which was me getting carried away and overrating him
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More to come!
Comments
Both of them improved over the year, both are RH power the Ms need. Wilson was especially striking with his steady improvement from a VERY slow start (fixing the Stanford Bat?). After the first 20 games OPS = .448; the last 36 games OPS = .911 - and in every 10 game increment he improved. That's impressive! Sure it's Everett, but that last 36 games is in Peterson/Zunino territory. The last 1/3 of the season (19 G) he was .313/.389/.656/1.045! That deserves some mention.
And we'll see Kivlehan in the AFL as our
B-ref has him at 33 games on the roster before Sep 1 in 2012 and 15 days on the roster in 2013 before going on the DL. That would be 48 --> 45 allowed. Several fantasy leagues show him as no longer rookie also, so I think that is correct.
... may be the one who posted this article. :)
Bravo. Looking forward to more info.
That said - everyone has their personal favorites, (and over at MC their adopt-a-players). So, I'll go ahead and put in my personal requests for specific analysis.
My MC AAP list:
Jabari Blash - (you mentioned)
Jabari Henry - (why limit yourself to one Jabari?)
Dario Pizzano - (yeah, I know he's a long shot - but how many .400 OBP guys are on the farm?)
Stefen Romero - (was 2013 growing pains - injuries - or the end for the darling of the 2012 class?)
Brian Moran - (end of year DL call probably nixed a Sept. call-up -- odds on seeing the Majors in 2014?)
In case you're interested, here's a link to MY year-end assessment of the players.
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=7402&view=getnew...
In any case. Keep up the good work.
Not really germane to this post, Spec, but I tried to post the following in the shoutbox and it wouldn't take. So I put it here:
I was looking over team and player stats this morning, and maybe I'm just too optimistic, but I was pretty darned encouraged. As a pitching staff, we rank 3rd in the AL in xFIP, the best indicator of how the staff will do going forward. We are 8th in FIP, and when it comes to pitching, all indications are that we are only going to get better, and could get REALLY better.
The hitting isn't so hot, but looking behind the numbers, I think we've had quite a bit of bad luck this season. We are 6th in walks, and 8th in isolated slugging. So we are hitting the ball hard and working the walks to get on base. But our BABIP is next to the bottom at .281 (Toronto is at .280 - we may pass them up). League average BABIP is .297. Imagine if we were league average in BABIP this season. Again, I see nowhere to go but up here as well. We have horrible baserunning and defensive problems, but we are well on the way to fixing both. I see no reason why we can't see dramatic improvements next season. Frankly, I don't think we realize just how good we are. I see Oakland leading the league, and all I think about is how much be beat up on them all season. I don't feel inferior to them, talent wise, at all.