Just read on MLB.com where this is the M's fifth straight win on opening day. It was great to get it, it was great to see the M's grind out a win after falling behind right away, it was great to see Felix adjust his game and TOTALLY shut down the A's after being stunned by Willingham's first-inning blast, it was great to see the M's keep grinding while the ump was ringing up Mariner after Mariner, it was great to see Figgins play joyfully and well, it was great to see a real MLB(tm) catcher behind the plate. All these observations are spot on, and the M's justly deserve credit for all things. They DO look like a better team...at least on a night where Felix both starts and completes the game, making the bullpen a non-factor.
But I didn't see a team that pressured their opponent into walks and errors. I saw an opponent that just had a remarkably bad game, their pitchers issued 4 walks in addition to those Cust earned. I saw a defense that botched routine plays not because the M's made them nervous or pressured but because for one game they just botched plays...a LOT of them.
The M's still looked like a team that will struggle to score runs, because even an average team when the beneficiary of 7 walks and 5 errors will put up a 10-spot for the game. It was painfully obvious on the two early bases-loaded-but-didn't-take-advantage innings that the M's are still the kind of team that needs 3 hits to score a run.
At the plate Bradley looked like the Bradley of last season. Langerhans looked just AWFUL. Cust gets an "A" for plate discipline, but him getting free passes in key situations with 2 outs leaves the responsibility for driving in runs on the shoulders of a kid who hasn't yet figured out how to tap his potential. Expect Cust to have a career high walk rate full of unintentional intentional walks, while veteran pitchers pitch around him in order to toy with the Kid to close down a threat.
Better, yes. A .500 team? I doubt it. A contender? In your dreams.
Love ya, Doc! You da sensei, I da whatever-you-call-da-student. But in this case, the instruction of the sensei is being influenced by his hopes, dreams, and the inevitable optimism of an opening-day win.
This team is not going to contend, even if several things go right this season. Just bein' real as opposed to enthusiastic.
=== Get To the Point, Dept. ===
Do the Mariners look rebuilt and overhauled? The answer is Yes.
And the answer would have been Yes, if they'd lost, too. ... hey, if the Mariners were playing Casey Kotchman and Rob Johnson and if they'd left Michael Pineda down for Luke French and all that garr-bajjj, we'd be screaming.
But this club has been overhauled. It's got a shot. At contending.
We'll see. But this offense will make life (more) difficult for rodent enemy pitching, and every year some Cinderella team comes up with a killer rotation out of nowhere. There's no reason to rule that out yet.
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=== Game Flow ===
When a pitching staff walks 7 men in one game, there are two interpretations, and in fact two actual causes:
- The pitchers were thinking about the beer after the game (yes, TIC, LrkrBoi29)
- The hitters put some blinkin' pro AB's on those pokeys and pressured them into it
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And when a defense commits 5 errors, there are two interpretations:
- The defense was lazy, and allowed the offense into the game by their poor play
- The offense pressured the losing ballclub, and they ultimately imploded
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In one short sequence, I'll tell you exactly why it looked like (2) to me.
... the A's went up 2-0 early, and last year the game was over. This year, though, the game was 2-0, and then the Mariners hitters fought like lions on every pitch, and then it was 2-1, and then it was 2-2, and then it was 3-2.
And then, in the 7th, Cust led off with another tough walk on 3-2, and Smoak rocked a pitch into the alley for a double. And the A's did not understand what was happening...
Miguel Olivo had a Baltimore Chop off the plate, and Ziegler short-armed a tough little throw to Barton, handcuffing him.
FROM THERE:
- Ziegler spiked a pickoff throw horribly
- Ziegler immediately threw a wild pitch just barely knocked down by Suzuki
- Ziegler immediately threw a worse wild pitch, heroically knocked down by Suzuki
- The embarrassment was on: e.g., Pennington butchered a fungo ground ball horribly
The score shouldn't have been 6-2. But the M's win that game without the fielding errors. For example, Ichiro got picked off right before Figgins' HR.
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=== Felix ===
Dug in when down 2-0.
Last year he'd have dug in, and fought for two hours, and he'd have gotten zero for it. He'd have lost 2-1 or 3-1.
This year, all of those lockdowns are going to feel completely different. Felix is going to dig in when he's down 1 or 2, and sometimes it's going to pay off. Huge.
.........
The Mariners were behind for like an hour, an hour and a half on the time clock, and .... they were fighting like Samurai. I wouldn't have cared if none of those hits had fallen in -- inning after inning, they were giving themselves a chance.
Blowers said that last year, Felix would be down 2-0 in the 4th and he'd feel terrible, knowing that Felix was going to (1) give his heart and soul and (2) lose.
This year, those games won't be lost causes. They'll be heroic, courageous, dramatic victories, a lot of the time. This was one of them.
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Comments
I, for one, refuse to listen to sensible arguments about the teams actual potential. At least for today.
Today -- the first day of a new and as of yet unsullied season, I will drink the kool-aid.
I will drink it deeply -- and it will taste good.
Tomorrow I may discover it has been sweetened artificially, and actually has a rather unpalatable aftertaste. I may also discover that continued consumption is bad for my long-term health. It may be full of carcinogenic compounds that will cause me to grow a third eye. Tomorrow I may turn my back on the cup so formerly sweet.
But today -- today I will savor the sweet flavor.
And no one, no matter how right they may be -- how wise they are -- how logical, balanced, foresighted, and verifiable their wisdom -- will be allowed to keep me from my appointed beverage. No one.
I NEED my Kool-aid. Ah, how sweet the taste.
As a PERSON, I agree with you completely.
As an ANALYST, I agree with what I posted above.
Oh blessed schizophrenia!
The Ms are gonna be on base far more than last year. Ichiro will be Ichiro, but Figgins already looks like he washed the taste of last year outta his mouth. I think Bradley hitting 3rd is a mistake but he's got time to prove he, too, can take a walk if he can't quite hit. And hits will happen.
Cust IS gonna be on base a lot, because they WILL want to face Smoak. If Justin is more 2010 Buster Posey than 2010 Smoak that will work in our favor (even if Cust is so freakin slow he can't score on Smoak's doubles).
I acually like the way Brendan Ryan looks at the plate. I never like how Jack Wilson looks at the plate, but he's just a place-holder. Langerhans had a TERRIBLE night, but Olivo is a gamer. He may never walk but he should be a decent hitter and a good backstop.
The holes in the lineup look like Bradley and Wilson - hopefully Langerhans isn't in the lineup that much. Average-year Chone is not a hole, Cust shouldn't be a hole...if Smoak is, we're in trouble. I don't think he will be, and i think he'll walk enough to make it through some of the rough patches.
The caveat on contending is that is has to be carried by the staff. If Felix, Pineda, Bedard and co can all pitch like conquerors and the bullpen can protect leads, we've got that shot.
I don't expect it. It's hoping for a little too much luck. I'd love to be .500, and I actually don't expect that either.
But our offense is gonna be better than it was last year. Hard not to be, but it's at least a sign of progress.
I'll take any progress I can get.
~G
In 4+ innings, the M's had 8 K's and 4 BB's against ... Trevor Cahill. A Fister-type control pitcher whose only positive attribute is that he throws strikes (without centering them for HR's).
That is, um 2 strikeouts and 1 walk per inning. vs. Cahill.
...........
Baseball is about the strike zone. That the M's won makes no difference. The way they controlled the strike zone, does make a difference.
...........
"A" for you being here though Daddy ;- )
or 30%, or whatever... kinda hope that Daddy didn't read me as calling a 90-win season.
..........
The offense WILL be better, (1) COULD be 95-OPS+ and (2) if we also get the dice roll on Pineda's and Bedard's health and (3) we get some things break for us like Smoak and Lueke, then (4) they could be in the race.
But let's say there's a 25% chance of a surprise run. What's wrong with a Mariners fan rooting for that in April? :- ) I guess nothing, which is why DaddyO voted "A" for effort and "C" for outcome...
..........
Just curious: had I been clear on that DaddyO? :fistbump:
(even if Cust is so freakin slow he can't score on Smoak's doubles).
As occurred yesterday on Smoak's towering fly ball deep on one hop off the wall. For those just joinin' G's postmortem. That was well-and-truly a David Ortiz 1st-to-3rd.
Clear as fishbowl water that was changed out within the last 24-48 hours. :couldn't resist the metaphor:
I gotcha that you were spinning an "it's possible" scenario. I know you're not predicting contention, just pointing out that, as with many teams, there's a potential there that, if reached, might result in a surprisingly good season. Make it so, Riker.
I DO interpret the walks and errors differently than you did, and I suspected that you were seeing things with your heart concluding that the M's pressured the A's into their abysmal performance. But my reaction could be, like our man Hargrove, "just gas."
My take on last night's game was that the M's showed enough improvement to at least say, "Thank you" and accept the gift given. Last year, they would have said, "Sorry, but that shirt just doesn't go with the pants I have." However, the gifts given were so plentiful that they an average offense would have had 10 runs to show for the night, not 6. To me, I still saw an inept offense, not a team that forced errors.
And I agree, if you can't root for a best-case scenario in April, when ANYTHING's possible, and you're rooting for a franchise that's been beyond bad for nearly a decade, WHEN CAN YOU?! GO FOR IT NOW, you might not have the chance come May or June.
It *is* possible that the A's just played super sloppy.
...........
Pretty clear to me that the M's laid off a ton of close pitches, and Figgins-Bradley-Cust are among the best in the game at #P/PA.
............
But yeah, a big part of THAT game WAS that the A's played a less-than-stellar game.
The M's aren't going to score 6 every night, as we all know. Last night, the "pro AB's" got rewarded. They won't be rewarded every night, but it says here that they will give us the pro approach consistently.
At least until/unless they quit on the season.
:chuckles:
I definitely agree that last night's the team showed that AB's are husbanded with far more appreciation for their value with THESE players as opposed to THOSE players. Pro AB's. Sure.
And I agree that my take on "they gave it to us" rather than "we pressured them into mistakes" is not a zero sum game. Middle ground is much preferred to each country having it's capital city in charred ruins from a nuke.
Some people actually thought Twiggy was more beautiful than Racquel Welch. I guess it's safe to say that people can look at the same things and come to different conclusions. Me, I preferred Mary Anne to Ginger.
Oh, and if one of the two of us was gonna have our capital nuked in a baseball debate, it would most likely end up being me. So tip o' the cap to ya. Who cares who's right?! We're not God, we're baseball fans. And it's BASEBALL season. No losers.