I mean, for one thing, it's ERA, which is not a good indicator of future performance in general. BABIP and HR/FB and sequencing and such. But even if it were CFIP, which I don't think anyone does, the sample sizes are just so tiny... so many variables. Who's the pitcher, who's the other team, are you in Safeco... especially over one season. I remember at some point recently people were calling Olivo a CERA hog; he was way better than anyone else on the staff... because he was getting all the Felix starts. Maybe in a season you get Olivo catching Felix versus the Angels in Safeco, and you get Montero catching Felix vs. the Angels in Safeco, and then you can kinda compare, but it's one game. Anything can happen (hello, Montero hitting two dingers off of Jered Weaver in Anaheim).
That said, Montero looks like he's improving at throwing out runners, he seems like he calls pretty good games, and his WP/PB total's no worse than Olivo's. He's not as bad as advertised by certain members of the M's blogosphere (koff Dave koff). I say let him catch until Zunino or whoever is ready, and then Montero can do the Napoli thing. What that means, though, is you better get your reps in at 1B now. Which is why I'm kinda disappointed to see Smoak back up. Might've preferred Liddi coming up to play some 3B so Seager can play 2B and Ackley at first most of the time, with Montero nabbing Ackley's days off.
Wedge says he's not ready, though. Sigh. Maybe next year. Poor Carp...
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On Lookout Landing, there is a .gif'ly gift of baseball analysis from m'man Jeff Sullivan. This article is above average by Sullivan's standards, which is like saying that Felix' article in Yankee Stadium was above average by Felix' standards.
In related news around the league , however, if you think that it is "reality" that Jesus Montero is going to soon be forbidden from catching, your basic problem is that you cannot distinguish between "my opinion" and "reality." This is a large problem to have. However, if you think that there is a strong case to be made that Jesus Montero will not establish himself as a decent catcher, you've got an opinion that can be strongly defended in fair debate.
Sullivan puts his finger on the biggest challenge that Montero faces: it's not natural for him to catch. The "stabbing" at pitches is awkward to watch. It's almost as painful as watching Montero lumber down to first base. (Edgar Martinez also was not fun to observe running out a ground ball.)
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In a roundtable spirit, following on to Jeffy's super .gif's, we've got something additional to think about. On this Baseball Prospectus table, the best five catchers for pitch "framing," over the last several years, are:
| Jose Molina | Angels, Yankees, Jays |
| Russell Martin | Yankees |
| Yorvit Torrealba | Rangers |
| Jonathan Lucroy | Brewers (Greinke, Gallardo, Wolf, Marcum) |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals |
And you notice, also, that every Mariner catcher, since 2006, just so happens to be horrible at framing pitches. Kenji Johjima, who was a pleasure to watch behind the plate for me if not for gaijin pitchers, is fifth from the bottom. Miguel Olivo, who caught for the lowly Royals before he caught for the lowly Mariners, is far down the table and I've seen tables where he was lower; in 2010 he was like -14 runs by another study we saw. Rob Johnson oh by the way got unbelievably little respect from the umps in Safeco. Josh Bard, a defensive specialist, guess whether he got calls as a Mariner.
When Carter Capps walked that one guy with a strike, I almost threw my hat at the TV. But Capps had thrown a bunch of misses that at-bat, and it's a baseball axiom that if you miss badly with two pitches and just barely tick the zone on pitch three, the third one's going to be called a ball. Umps don't like first-month rookie pitchers, and they like chaotic, hard-throwing pitchers like Capps even less. Anybody remember how frustrated the 1989, 1990 Randy Johnson used to get with the umps? Umps get angry when flamethrowers don't know where the ball is going.
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Montero does stab at pitches, and it's because he has a hard time catching them. This is amateurish and it's an important factor.
Would Montero's stabbing cost him runs, if he were catching CC Sabathia rather than Carter Capps? Of course that would make a difference. You don't see Felix getting jobbed, whoever is catching him. Right? Anybody remember any Felix pitches getting blown on 3-2 counts, Montero catching or not?
I don't remember (the excellent) Mike Fast, or anybody, even asking the question "how much does 'framing' depend on who is pitching? And on how well those pitchers are executing the way the umpires prefer them to?" SSI's belief - subject to revision - is that the "framing" effect is 70%, 80% dependent on the pitcher, and his relationship with the umpire that day. Jamie Moyer wasn't walking off the mound tipping his cap to the catcher at the end of a start.
The baseball catchers who post here have told us that what really matters, is that a catcher's glove needs to be moving towards the zone at impact, rather than away from the zone at impact. Probably Montero's glove right now is indeed moving off the zone as he catches the pitch; think about the idea of "late, desperate reach" for outside pitches and it will be obvious why. As Montero sees the ball earlier, this effect will decrease.
There are bat-first catchers. Mike Piazza was always kludgy behind the plate. Jason Varitek was never butter-smooth behind the plate. Montero's future will be interesting to watch; suffice it to say that right now, his CERA is better than Miguel Olivo's. If there are bases being lost there, they have not yet shown up on the scoreboard.
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The umpires have, since about 2006, dripped with contempt for the Seattle Mariners. It's unprofessional, it causes players to be misevaluated, it endangers coaches' and players' careers. But it's not going to stop until the Mariners are a legit contender.
And it beats World Cup soccer referee'ing. :- )
BABVA,
Jeff
Comments
Without a doubt you have to be aware that CERA, especially in less than a season, could be way misleading. Yes there are times when a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and a particular stat can take us in the WRONG direction of understanding.
We're using it to address a macro point, here though: some people think that Jesus Montero is incompetent as a major league catcher, that he is below critical mass, that his presence behind the plate warps a baseball game.
If that is the question, then it is worth knowing that the other guys have not scored more runs in Montero's games than in Olivo's. That is one piece of evidence that casts the "incompetent" theory into doubt.
It's like somebody asserting that Nate McMillan was a poor basketball player, and then noting that his plus-minus stat was very good for his career. It doesn't end the discussion, but you do want to include the fact in the discussion.
...is that it's about 40% who's pitching, 15% who's catching, 30% ordinary (unbiased within the game, but biased in terms of how many games you happen to get with a given ump) umpire strikezone differences (some umps like the outside corner, some like the inside corner, some like high strikes, some like low strikes) and 15% "the better team will get the better calls".
Seriously...go check that awesome-framing leaderboard and count how many teams with W% below .500 you find in the top half.
The Mariners get routinely hosed by the umpires - I demonstrated it by picking a random two-week chunk of games and counting the bad calls for Ms and the opponents back in 2009 as our playoff chances were dying a painful death - because they are a terrible baseball team. Did they get jobbed by the umps in 1997? I don't think so.
One thing we tend to forget is how young Montero is. He's 22 years old. Napoli debuted in the bigs at 24.
Montero is only up because his bat is so advanced. An age appropriate level for his catching skill is what - AA? He's got development left and I sure wouldn't give up on him, no way no how. He seems to call a good game already. He's getting better at controlling the running game.
Yeah, he stabs at pitches and looks awkward at times. But that's not to say he'll be doing that in 2013 or 2014. To the point of the article, I was more down on him behind the dish before I actually saw him play. He seems like he's pretty smart and already making adjustments.
But I would be okay with Jack bringing Olivo back again next season as long as it would continue to be in the reduced role that he's played in since July 1st (41.7% games started at catcher). The 3-headed catcher (now that Wedge is running it like I hoped he would at the beginning of the season) insulates Jaso vs. Lefties, and Olivo vs. Righties, while not overexposing Montero to the daily rigors of catching (and righties that have held Montero to a sub-.600 OPS this season).
*Throws crumpled dixie cups*