Lee at the Deadline: 2009 Edition

Seemed to me that a pretty good comp for what Cliff Lee would fetch at the deadline is looking at . . . what Cliff Lee would fetch at the deadline -- in 2009.  Key differences: last year he was a 1-1/2 year rental and not a 1/2-season temp.  BUT, this year no one can doubt that he is a bona fide Cy Young stud whereas last year there was still some sense of flukishness about him (sure, you'd still prefer Halladay, but last year is wasn't really close; this year it would be).

Anyway, the website indiansprospectinsider.com ranks the haul from the Phillies as follows:

Jason Knapp #6 prospect despite shoulder surgery that has kept him from pitching this year: http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2010/03/indians-top-50-6-jason-knapp.html

Big arm, long away from contributing (11.4 K/9 but 4.4 BB/9 in A ball).  #6 seems aggressive even if not for the shoulder surgery, but he has a lot of potential and the injury is not conisderd all that serious.

Carlos Carrasco #9 prospect.  Was considered the top guy in the deal, having come into 09 as a top-50 ranked prospect by both BA and mlb.com.  http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2010/03/indians-top-50-9-carlos-carrasco.html

Carrasco got 5 unimpressive starts for the Tribe at the end of 09, and has been in AAA all this year.  He's been lukewarm, with a 4.22 ERA, 8.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9.  He's still only 23, throws hard and has been durable, so I'd think he'd still be considered an elite prospect.

Lou Marson #18 prospect.  As you can read, Marson is a "defense and intangibles" guy at C, with the ability to contribute with the bat: http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2010/03/indians-top-50-18-lou-marson.html

Marson was the opening day C for the Tribe and started 45 games before being sent down on 6/11.  "He needs to let his bat catch up to his defense" was the line.  But the real story was that Cleveland's #1 prospect -- Carlos Santana (not related to the guitar legend) -- is also a catcher, and a switch-hitting one, who was also sailing along at .317/.447/.597 at AAA.

So Santana is in and Marson is out, but apparently Marson's defense held up at the MLB level, so he's still a valuable asset, but more likely as a backup if Santana sticks at C.

Jason Donald #23 prospect.  Versatile infielder with some pop, not quite considered an every-day SS.  http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2010/02/indians-top-50-23-jason-donald.html

Came up to the bigs on May 18 after Asdrubal Cabrera broke his arm.  Became a footnote to history as the guy wrongly called safe to break up the perfect game.  Not hitting too much (.242/.274/.385), but Luis Valbuena has been worse, so it is expected that Donald will play a lot at 2b when Cabrera comes back.

So, roughly:

-- an approximation of Chris Tillman when he was 19, except injured (obviously, the Indians didn't know and the Phillies "swear" they didn't know; you have to evaluate the trade based on no injury -- at least in terms of what Cleveland assumed it was getting);

-- a starter roughly somewhere between Pineda and Robles, but two years closer to the majors;

-- a Rob Johnson type backstop, MLB-ready on defense; and

-- an MLB-ready utility guy probably above Bloomie, hoping to be in the range of Mark Grudzielanek (decent doubles and walks), whom he essentially replaced on the Cleveland roster. 

 

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