Q. Since studies don't exist, or you don't know about them, where do you start?
A. A little snippet by James might help here ...
I have two points, and my only excuse for bringing them both up to you is that I think they are somewhat related. The first is that I believe a lot of fans think making successful, efficient moves as a general manager is some combination of sabermetric shrewdness and scouting acumen. I believe the merit of general manager decisions over time has at least as much to do with traits harder to define. Maybe good decision-making? Practicality? My second thought is that the kind of analysis that a fan does where he compiles all of a GM's trades and signings and rates how many were good and how many bad is really pointless.
Asked by: davidharris
Answered: 8/15/2012
When I started counting stolen bases allowed by catchers, people used to tell me it was pointless because it didn't include the pitchers. When I proposed the Pythagorean method people told me it was pointless because it didn't measure a team's ability to win close games.
Every measurement starts out with naive assumptions or crude assumptions, and gradually refines them. You have to start somewhere.
James has never been afraid to take a crude cut at an issue, provided that his crude cut involves facts and objectivity, rather than opinions and baloney. You gotta start somewhere.
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Q. So where DO you start?
A. How about with an objective list :- ) of 20, 30 hitters who were late bloomers. Let's take guys who were less-than-average at age 27, roughly speaking. That won't mean much with respect to Mike Carp, but it's a reductio ad absurdum. If every late bloomer at age 30 is Adam Dunn or his ilk, we'll notice it that way.
I'll grab who I can think off, of the top of my head, out of the recent hitting leaderboards, and we'll just add the hitters off this list here.
What would be better, would be if I had a database from 1921 to 2012, could define OPS for ages 21-27 and then OPS plus something for ages 28+. Why don't you do that. While you do, I'll just list 20-30 guys and look at them.
Okay, my own guys ...
Raul Ibanez, Josh Willingham, Jayson Werth, Nelson Cruz, Geronimo Berroa, Jose Bautista, David Ortiz, maybe Jason Varitek no forget him he's a catcher and maybe didn't bloom late, Matt Stairs, Luke Scott maybe ... the non-ballplayers. Jeff Conine, Hal McRae languished on the bench of my Big Red Machine but maybe he was just frozen out like Edgar, Jose Guillen ...
Huh. Does anybody notice any RBI men in this list?
Okay, let's see what Bleacher Report has... Lefty O'Doul, a converted pitcher. Gavvy Carvath, Kevin Millar that's a good one, Elston Howard no he was just frozen out and in the military, Scott Brosius nah he was never good for more than a year or two, then they have three or four guys we already named. Oh! Just remembered Carlos Guillen. How could we forget.
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Q. Wait a second. Maybe you're just not thinking of the leadoff guys who should be on here?
A. Maybe, but I doubt it. If a player can run and slap the ball on the ground, I bet you it doesn't take him until age 30 to learn how to do it.
Like Chone Figgins blossomed a bit late? ... no, he was an MVP candidate at 26, and at 25 his OPS+ hadn't been much different. But! Check me on this point.
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Q. What are the patterns?
A. OK ...