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Hm. Pitching for Wil Myers after all? But maybe, instead of Hultzen and Miller, Paxton and Franklin. Interesting...
K-Pax Turns It Up to 11
Spinnin' the volume on the guitar, compressor and amp
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"I like to have the stacks cranked up, y'know? I mean I like to feel the hairs on my arm move out there." - Eddie Van Halen
From Hey Bill:
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In re Lincecum. Let's presume Lincecum is or has been a great pitcher on a peak basis. Steve Carlton had a crappy year in his late-20's, Vida Blue had a lousy year in his late-20's, and they came back, though Lefty obviously more so than Vida. I assume you can come up with examples of pitchers who did not. Is there a way to tell which ones will come back, and which are through? It seems likely that there is not, but it also seems like there must be.Asked by: MikeCharyAnswered: 10/28/2012Well, this is what we do on a daily basis, on an hourly basis, within a front office; we look for clues that a player will come back or that he won't.There isn't anything absolute. If a pitcher's velocity is down, that becomes a concern; on the other hand, pitchers' velocity drops as they age, so then you have to ask yourself whether this indicates a progressive decline, or whether the pitcher can adjust to it and still pitch, or whether he might still be effective in a different role. If a pitcher's pitch selection has changed in some way that hasn't been productive, that might be an opportunity; if you can acquire the player and get him to stop throwing that changeup that is getting hit hard, then he might snap back.There are hundreds of things you can look at to get a clue as to whether a player might come back, but there is no absolute answer except to wait until next year and see.But Lincecum struck out 190 batters in 186 innings. That's a really strong indicator that he can bounce back.
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Let's put two and two together, out here in the bleachers.
On the one end of things, you have got a school of thought that says the AFL means no more and no less than batting practice would mean; nothing to see here. At the other end of the spectrum, Geoff Baker reports that Tom McNamara is sweltering in the seats behind home plates "furiously scribbling notes." Royals staff are "nodding together" as Paxton detonates the guys taking "batting practice." Baker, with his usual fine feel for the ground game, radios Free Houston that these are important seismo's. Paxton is throwing the stuffing out of the ball and the other teams' scouts are going bug-eyed.
So does the AFL mean nothing or does it mean a whale of a lot? Three things to chuck down in there into the pile of peanut shells behind the scoreboard:
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1. Dr. D has always been mesmerized by the fact that the slots in the June ammy draft will change literally with each single start that a college pitcher takes. Come middle, late June, a Gerrit Cole can be slotted #6 and then jump to #1 with a single Friday start, or vice versa.
The same happens with July trades. What are all those scouts doing in the stands as Doug Fister takes his last start for the M's? Don't they know who he is?
This always struck Dr. D as too impressionable. But James' remarks do provide some layering to the issue....
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2. As Einstein hated the question, "What initiated the Big Bang?," hated it enough to resist believing it for years and years ... so sabermetricians hate the questions "What causes a player to have a good year? And how can you predict it?" They will suppress the question wherever possible, for the simple reason that they are ill-equipped to cope with it.
They're okay with PECOTA's percentile projections: Mike Carp has a 50% chance of a 104 OPS+ or better, and a 10% chance of a 127 OPS+ or better. That's computerized and there is no need to defer to an ex-ballplayer.
But is it possible to look at a Kyle Seager, while he's playing in AA, and say "THAT one!" ? If so, is it possible for intuition to play a role?
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3. Dr. D still believes that, in their zeal to squeeze the verrrrrry last drop of perception out of their intuitions --- > the Good Ole Baseball Boyz can be a little too impressionable. A little too subject to the whims of whether an ML player had an extra margarita the night before.
But the basic quest for projection - the basic attempt to make the right hair-fine judgment, on Mike Carp vs Alex Liddi - Dr. D signs off on that. And there is still a huge role for the ex-ballplayer in this realm. Computers will never, at any point in human history even 10,000 years from now, completely capture and predict human performance. There will always be a role for a mom listening to her daughter choose a little bit of a funny word phrasing, and intuiting that she'd been drinking...
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4. Did we say three things? Man, I'd hate to see Paxton go. On the chill meter:
- Pineda: So cool he made me forget the Randy Johnson thing
- Paxton: Not THAT, but still, Kin-Tuckee southpaw with a Sidd Finch motion and fass'bawl? ... as cool as Jered Weaver, Clayton Kershaw, or Jay Buhner (K-Pax nickname is dissonant, though, unless Paxton speaks as slowly as Kevin Spacey)
- Hultzen: I don't get any refrigeration whatosever, at this point
- Taijuan: See above. Fans taking a false start off a kid's ability to dunk is actually negative refrigeration
"I notice when I get to likin' somebody, they ain't around long." - Josey Wales >:-[
"I notice when you get to DIS likin' somebody, they ain't around long neither." - Chief Dan George
Why couldn't baseball have steered onto one of the other Big Three? Or Erasmo? Erasmo's really good. Honest he is.
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Baseball people have their intuition receivers cranked to 11. And James Paxton is whaling on his guitar's whammy bar out there.
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Comments
2
but the Royals outfield isn't exactly stacked. Nobody besides Gordon talked a .700 OPS last season. Maybe Casper Wells on top gets it done, stadium certainly treated him well in the past in his small sampling.
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It's hard to see a Wil Myers trade scenario that makes sense. If you're the Royals, Myers is your shiny new toy that looks like a franchise cornerstone, so you have to be overwhelmed to make that move. But for the other team in the deal, it seems like there has to be a limit to what you give up to get the player. Regardless of how good he MIGHT be, there's still that uncertainty around how good he WILL be. What if, for instance, he only turns out to be a pretty good ballplayer, and not a great one? Or what if injuries strike and he turns into Grady Sizemore? In both of those scenarios, you can't really say anybody screwed up on the evaluation, but was it worth giving up your own shiny new toys to get him?
I don't really worry that Wil Myers will be a complete bust. I worry that there's so much buzz around him that we'd be buying not just high, but skyscraper high. It's a scenario where, even if the guy turns into a pretty good player, we're almost certain to be disappointed and feel like we gave up too much,
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1) We cannot play all our young players.
Franklin, Miller, Ackley, Seager, Romero and Marder are all aimed at the same 3 positions. We have complete duplication. Even if we assume that Felix leaves in a couple years and we need to turn over our entire starting 5, we have Hultzen, Paxton, Walker, Erasmo, Maurer, Beavan, Noesi, Mitchell, Carraway... and we're NEVER going with a starting 5 that has 2 years or less experience.
2) We have no idea which players are the future.
Is Ackley the future? Franklin could take over for him tomorrow and play the same level of defense while deploying a lefty swing that isn't so long and prone to misuse. Is Montero the future? Zunino has busted the knob PAST eleven in the minors this year...but so did Montero in 2009 as a teen. Who's the fixture?
3) We do not want to give up the best player in a deal.
Paxton is basically Brandon Morrow as a lefty, or Max Scherzer if you prefer. Is there any scenario where you don't want that guy when he hits the afterburners? His motion is awesome, his power pitching is phenomenal, an his only concern are the spikes of wildness that occasionally overtake him. At 80% of his potential he's a strong #2-3 pitcher on a World-Series winning roster that has Felix as its ace. If you're trading Paxton + Franklin + a couple other pieces, what you're getting back had better be immense so that you're not coughing up TWO best players in the deal.
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Paxton + Franklin + a couple seems too high for Alex Gordon or Billy Butler, but we're almost certain to overpay. We have a lot of young talent and we're not gonna be able to trade JC Ramirez, a worthless CF and a busted reliever for Cliff Lee anymore. Nobody's taking Carraway, Mike McGee and Chance Ruffin in a deal for a top talent, unfortunately.
If we're gonna cough up a boatload of talent, I'd rather go for broke and swing a mega-deal that sends Montero, Ackley, Walker and Paxton to Miami to get Stanton. We might work Josh Johnson into that deal as well if we want to go nuclear on the prospects-for-stars conversion.
Franklin would slot in for Ackley in that scenario, Zunino for Montero, Stanton becomes our offensive cornerstone the way Cabrera did for Detroit, and we still have Hultzen/Maurer/Erasmo/etc to slot in after Felix and whomever else are our starters. if we included Johnson in that deal... Felix / Johnson / Iwakuma / Erasmo / Hultzen is crazy-town for a starting 5, and we'd still have money for another bat to help Franklin/Seager/Saunders/Stanton/Jaso/Zunino with the hitting duties.
But I expect to move Paxton for a smaller gain, and keep more of our ammunition. I just hope whatever we keep is devastating and fired by us, and whatever we trade are blanks. Not that I'm greedy... :-)
~G
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I don't think we can get Stanton out of Florida without offering Felix. It would probably wind up as a combo deal of Felix + a couple of young blue-chippers for Stanton + Johnson. Nick Franklin is a Florida boy I would think we'd include, but the Marlins are very much building their identity in the community around Latin players, and Felix is the cream of the crop in that regard.
I don't expect that deal to happen. I don't expect ANY deal for Stanton to happen. But I would throw heaps of our young talent into the conversation and see if the Marlins would blink.
I'd rather pay the premium in young talent to get the super-peak of Stanton instead of the pretty hills of Gordon or Butler. But since Option A isn't available (I don't believe) we'll see what happens if we take option B, and what it costs. I'm still in favor of B over the C option of "continue relying on Smoak to be a MOTO bat, and don't worry about Montero, I'm sure we can fit him and Zunino in the lineup. Also, who needs a productive corner OFer?"
Gotta make some changes regardless.
~G
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Why not Troy Tulowitzki. With the Rockies awful last couple seasons, with no immediate end in sight, maybe they would consider clearing the decks of the big contracts, and Tulowitzki to replace Ryan would be like replacing Casper Wells with Giancarlo Stanton. The trade might even be slightly cheaper in terms of talent due to the size of Tulowitzki's contract.
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improving a player's trade value by letting them go bananas on the league for 8-10 games before trading them is one that gets discussed a lot here.
What about Erasmo in a blockbuster for a yount moto hitter? Does his lack of local hype translate to lesser value to tge rest of the world, or does his stomp through the AL on the first pass elevate him in other teams' eyes above the Big Three? Also neatly addresses the Latino connection Miami is going for.
Erasmo, Wells, Franklin, and Montero for Stanton? We could add one of the Big Three and another shiny bit if they included Johnson. Wishful thinking?
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Erasmo caused quite a stir on the Eastern seaboard in September. That should probably trump all but the most outrageous minors stats.
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With Tim Lincecum stumbling this last season, to the point even his own GM is saying that he just will not be the same pitcher anymore, GMs will not believe in the long term health care of a short pitcher, and that will tank his value vs. the taller big 3(4)
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Erasmo can stay here and "only" help us to two titles like Lincecum. That's something I'm completely fine with.
~G
11
Just saying little guys and guys who don't throw hard get undervalued. Anyone want Dany Harden? The Angels are apparently shuffling him off rather than pay 15 million for a guy with a career 3.66 ERA because he was over 4 this year.
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I wouldn't trade Montero, Ackley, Walker and Paxton for anyone not named Willie Mays or Hank Aaron.
Whew. We can trade a couple of guys, say an IF and a P, because we we have loads of talented young guys at those positions and anyone may bust or go all All-Star on us. But I am not swapping 4 of them, no way.
By the way, we can find 115-120 OPS RF's and DH's in-house, if we are willing to platoon. Montero is a mashing 144 OPS hitter vL. Jaso is a 109 career hitter vR (and it was way better last year). Combine those two guys and you have a heck of a DH. (give'em both 20 games each at catcher and Montero 20-30 games a 1B to get them in the lineup)
Wells is a carer 123 OPS guy vL, Thames is 107 vR.
Add Zunino, and a rebounding Ackley (110 in '11) and you quickly have a decent offense, especially if you can get your 1B to hit at a 110+ level.
With those numbers, and our staff, you can win.
And it is the wise way to use your talent. Doing so, I wouldn't even whine if we just kept Guti in CF (he seems unlikely to be traded with just one year left). Saunders, then, plays left.
And I haven't even whined about the Carp trade that seems imminent.
If you have a 1B who can hit some (Brandon Belt's individual numbers don't seem THAT impressive: .275-.360-.421 with only 7 tater, but they equal a very nice 124 OPS), then you have a very potent lineup.
How about Ackley, Gutierrez, 1B, Montero, Zunino, Seager, Saunders, Wells, Ryan vs. lefties and Ackley, Saunders, 1B, Jaso, Seager, Zunino, Thames, Franklin, Guti Vs righties.
Add Liddi and that gives you 13 bats and multi-positional flexability. That's an offense you can win with.
I still don't think Smoak is the 1B to go with this recipe, btw. Romero or Gordon, anyone?
We ain't THAT far away guys.
moe
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I get the feeling Stephen Romero is about to have Carlos Lee's offensive career.