.............. Don't think this one's got the distance .... 

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Spec sez,

How do you diagnose Clement (vs Smoak)?  His minor league OPS of .860 is eerily close to Smoak's .859.  Both headed up the glide path at similar rocket pace before hitting turbulence and injuries.

Clement isn't even on Pittsburgh's 40-man roster anymore.

I've had great faith in Smoak recovering, but the Clement example gives me some pause.

Spec is thinking like a human being.  A single powerful example is going to hit us harder than a hundred passing examples.  One time I wrecked my motorcycle real bad, and guess what my feeling is about motorcycles?  Guess whether that feeling is removed by logical arguments?

Not that Jeff Clement was a real bad motorcycle wreck.  Oh, wait, he was.

.........

Let's dis-organize our thinking here into two branches.  

First of all, if Smoak and Clement were exactly the same kind of player, it wouldn't matter much that Clement had failed.  Second of all, Smoak and Clement are as dissimilar as two big left hand hitters can be, notably in the HIT section of the clipboard.  Third of all, Smoak and Clement aren't alike.

Supporting logic arrays thusly:

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=== You Lays Yer Bet and You Takes Yer Chances ===

It is essential, by which we mean it is a basic requirement, or in other words it is imperative, or to put it another way it is absolutely vital, by which we insist it is unavoidable and mandatory and a sine qua non, to --- > think of each new Justin Smoak as a fresh roll of one 20-sided dungeons-and-dragons die.

Justin Smoaks have come and Justin Smoaks have gone, and many many Justin Smoaks will arrive in the future.  They will all need to roll 13 or above, on a 20-sider, in order to become ML impact players.

Jeff Clement didn't roll his 13.  In fact he rolled a 2 and was immolated by the ancient red dragon, no system shock roll allowed.  The fact that Clement, and 9,000 other 1st-round picks, died horribly?, means nothing in terms of the next roll of the dice.  The coin doesn't remember whether it came up tails the last four times; it still has a 50-50 chance the next flip...

..........

A picture's worth 1,000 words.  We know that Dr. D's logic is unconvincing to you.  You know how we know that?  Because it's unconvincing to him :- )

Here is logic that you will find more convincing:  Matt Bush.  

In 2004, the baseball commissioner rang the bell starting the amateur draft, and the next thing that occurred was the San Diego Padres yelling "Gimme Matt Bush!"  The next thing that occurred was the Detroit Tigers yelling, "Gimme Justin Verlander!  And if brains were dynamite, the Padres couldn't blow their noses!"  And the next thing that occurred, was that the 18-year-old Matt Bush got into an ugly brawl outside a nightclub and got suspended.  Before his first training camp.

The next thing that occurred, was that Matt Bush couldn't learn how to hit, so now in the Rays' organization he is not learning how to pitch.

This was the 1-1 pick.

An exception, maybe?