SSI Mainframe:  Players in the middle of the field -- SS's, 2B's, and CF's -- still, in 2011, appear to offer a moneyball value opportunity, yes.

 

WAR at first base, as for Fielder and Votto, might show a fancy 50-60 runs, which equal out to Reyes' 60 runs in 2011.  But here's where the real-world "replacement level" is different from theory.

 

Saberdweebs might figure a certain RL at shortstop and presume that any decent org "ought" to be able to field a competent shortstop.  But it says here that it is very, very easy to get caught on the wrong foot and wind up with -20, -30 runs vs. RL from your shortstops.

 

As well, I think it's not only easier to come up with a +0 RL first baseman than a +0 RL SS ... but also easier to develop a +20 runs first baseman than a +20 runs shortstop.  :- )

 

......

 

Reyes might not only be cheaper than Fielder, he might also make Jack Zduriencik's 2012-15 job much easier than Fielder would.

 

.

 

 

SSI Mainframe:  This is the big caveat, yes.  The health questions can't be minimized.  

 

... and remember the first rule of roto drafting:  it doesn't matter whether your best five players are worth $1.00, $0.95 or $0.90.  It just matters that all five of them stay on the field.

 

As a Franchise Sign, it's very bothersome that Jose Reyes is fragile.

 

.......

 

Just the same, all 30 ML teams know that Reyes offers a lot of DL time for your $100MM, so why is he going to get it?

 

::pause, meditate::

 

No, not because the ML brain trusts are brain dead.

 

:: pause, cogitate::

 

It's because of Rickey Henderson syndrome.  Assuming that you do get 130 games of Rickey, or Jose Reyes, or whoever, then --- > you still get your 50-60 runs, plus you get the production of the 30-game backup.

 

Rickey's teams won a lot of games, and won a lot of championships, with him playing 115-130 games per year.

 

.........

 

 

A.  Somebody will have to spend some time deciding whether Reyes is (1) Rickey, or (2) Eric Davis.

 

(I wouldn't personally have Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins in a template-group with Rafael Furcal.  In Furcal's prime, he was hitting for a 95-105 OPS+. He was always a Maury Wills type shortstop - a waterbug with a cannon, chipping in on offense the best he could.)

 

Here's what I think:  Eric Davis missed tons of games, starting as a rookie, and throughout his 20's.  Then after 30 he couldn't stay on the field.

 

Rickey actually had a good number of 150+ game seasons before the mileage started to add up, around age 28 or whatever.  That's much more similar to Reyes, who strung several 155-game seasons as a new player.