I liked Lopez, really did. I think I called him a hacking hack of a hack, you may remember. But I meant that in a way that related to his belief that he never saw a pitch he didn't like. For two years he hit a bunch of extrabase rockets (126 in '08-'09) and he didn't really luck ito them. In '08 his BABIP was .306 and it was only .270 the next year, which may have been his best.
His LD% was 20.3 in '08, and then 18.5 in '09. It was between 18.2% and 18.6% in 05, 06 and '10, as well. So he did't really do anything he hadn't done before.
HIs flyball rate was a career high 40.8% in '09 but was 35.6% in '08. Most ofhis career was around 38%. He did have a career low GB/FB rate in '09, but in '08 it was the 2nd highest of his career.
And then he fell off the face of the hitting planet after '10. Hard to figure. Peripheral numbers don't really show it.
He did see far fewer FB's after '09 and more curves and changeups, therein lies the answer, I suppose.
In '08, when he hit .292 he saw 64.7% FB's, 7% curves and 8.4% changes.
In '09, when he hit .272 he saw 57.1% FB's, 9% curves and 8.8% changes.
in '10, when he hit .239 he saw 53.2% FB's, 12% curves and 9.4% changes.
Ergo: An answer I think, even though his contact rates remained the same.
Funny, how one less fastball every ten pitches might destroy a guy's numbers (assuming there weren't off the field issues). What is that, every 2.5 PA's for Lopez?
He was good. He isn't now.
...........................
G-Money pulls a fascinating comp:
Seager is the Jose Lopez we all wanted. Except from the left side. He has one walk in 80 ABs - ONE. If you pro-rate last year to 600 PAs he only walks about 35 times. This year it's far less. But it doesn't matter - he HITS. Is a guy that white allowed to hit like a Latin dude? He sure looks like a .280-.300 bat with 50 points of patience and WAY more thump than he's been given credit for.
Yes, it's pull-HR-only power, just like it was with Lopez, except that Seager is pulling it to a favorable part of the park instead of Death Valley. Jose hit 17 and 25 HRs his 2 good years, both with 40+ doubles. I'd like better walks, and I think Seager's will increase as guys get scared of his wheelhouse, but his two HRs had the pitcher pounding the outside edge to death...so Seager just went out and slapped a ball through the hole the other way. He has a complete approach with his swing.
If this is the Kyle Seager we're going to get, who can do time at 2nd and spot-appearances at short to boot, then he's an integral part of the Mariners going forward.
This one has legs. Jose C. had the 40 doubles and 20-25 homers in his two good years with us. Nothing to sneeze at. Averaged 25 walks a year; Seager's right there, 25-30 right now.
At ages 24-25, Lopez had a 100-110 OPS+ but it was the reductio ad absurdum case of a player better than his OPS+. Lopez averaged 90-95 RBI in those years, which translates to 100+ in another park, coming from an infielder.
.
=== Toolbox ===
The comparison on the HIT tools is good too. Lopez could square up a 97 fastball with ease. Seager's ability to square a pitch has always been special; what scouts doubted was that he'd ever hit anything but singles. a la Nick Franklin.
Comp on the PULL tool ;- ) is apt also... I think in one season, every single one of his 19* homers was to the leftward quarter of the diamond. He'd swing and there would go another laser beam right down the LF line.
G's point is - put Jose C. in Fenway at ages 24-25 and where would his stats be? Right. It's hard to say why Lopez tailed off SO badly from ages 27 on. Maybe something off the field.
.
=== Saving Clause ===
One huge difference in Seager's favor: Lopez was a natural groundball hitter, topped the ball with his natural swing. Seager's natural swing lofts the ball.
Lopez' groundball ratio was 1.2, sometimes 1.4 in his best years, whereas Seager is running an 0.6 grounder ratio. We remember Shandler's skepticism on Lopez in the early years: "Grounder rate is zapping any chance he has at power." It's precisely in the intersection of Seager's flyball rate, and pull rate, that his upside lies. Remember James' maxim that the real damage in baseball occurs when good hitters pull the ball in the air -- "the big guys hit .500, .600, .700 when they pull the ball in the air."
We're sure that G would agree that Lopez had a natural topspin swing, finishing with the bat low to the ground like a tennis groundstroke, whereas Seager's is almost comical in its shape. It looks like Seager is trying to lob fly balls over a 60' castle wall :- )
Now imagine Jose C. in Fenway at ages 24-25, if Jose C. had been an extreme flyball hitter...
.
=== Plate Discipline ===
BB's for Seager will grow, it says here, as the respect grows... in the minors, Seager walked 130 times vs 165 strikeouts, and surely his UNC stats would be similar. Lopez had a 99:218 EYE in the minors.
Lopez was a natural hacker; Seager is a guy who naturally works the zone, but the pitchers don't buy him yet and are making him prove it. Possibly after his HR's hit double figures, he'll start gaining respect ... and more 2-0 counts. Remember, MLB veterans see their speed go down but their BB's WITH HOMERS go up simultaneously...
Already in today's game, Wedge moves Seager to cleanup, and Neimann, obviously pitching carefully after last night's game, walks Seager leading off the 2nd. When Lopez got walked it was like he went, wait, what? Was it three balls already? When Seager walked, he dropped the bat like that was the plan.
.
=== Comp ===
All in all that's a whale of a visual. You've got two guys who could square up a 30-30 rifle shot, who love to get the bat head wayyyyy out in front, 2B/3B/SS infielders who will make their livings with the RBI. If you're talking about a 2nd draw at Jose Lopez, this time tailor-made for the home park, there y'go amig-O.
Good stuff,
Dr D
Comments
If we're turning Seager into Lopez, then I'm really concerned.
Lopez and Yuni were part of what seemed to be Bavasi's "9 Ichiros" approach -- never strike out, never walk.
Problem is, for mortal hitters the math doesn't work. When you take that approach, your OBP is pretty much entirely dependent on your BABIP (unless you hit a lot of HR). Lopez career .275 BABIP, .293 OBP.
His age-25 season was the only season that his HR/FB was above-average (8.7%). He hit 25, and that was his only Seattle season in which his OBP was more than 20 points higher than his BABIP (.303 vs. .270).
If you're Ichiro, then your .351 BABIP leads to a .369 OBP and you are all right. If you're a slugger you can make up the OBP with home runs.
But with Lopez and Yuni (career BABIP .281, OBP .293) it's not sustainable. I don't think either was destined to be a consistent offensive producer (though sufficient for middle infielders). Lopez' age-25 year was an outlier, not a signal of what could have been, I think.
Seager has the skills to not be that kind of hitter, so let's not try to make him one.