James Paxton at the AFL - the Hook
Hide the women and children, Dept.

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The AFL Rising Stars game finally delivered, at long last, our chance to view Nick Franklin and James Paxton from the CF camera.  Now we would see.  Time, at least for one over-eager pundit, to see for hisself which scouting reports had been in the strike zone.

Paxton took the mound in a jersey one size too big, and a pair of pants that were three sizes too big.  The cap was about right and the brim hid his eyes like The Man With No Name in one of Clint's westerns.  K-Pax reared back, flung the glove up, drove that hip pocket forward and whipped a strike inside.  0-1.  Looks good to me, man.  Lessee what you got.

It was on pitch two that Dr. D pole-vaulted up out of his chair.  Paxton reared back again, whipped the arm through for the 0-1 fastball outside... 

... which then popped a parachute like a Trevor Hoffman changeup.  It zoomed in chest-high... no, that was Paxton's forearm that fooled my eyes.  The pitch floated in chest-high, and then rolled off the top of the table and crackled in to the hitter's back foot.  It was a two-plane yakker with late, hard bite.

It's kind of hard to describe the pitch shape.  The young Barry Zito had that much arm action and that much changeup deception, but his curve blooped from the time of release.  Same with David Wells.

Erikkk Bedard's curve has the sick late bite like that, but Bedard's curve didn't have quite the same changeup action.

Randy Johnson's power slider had the two-plane late bite with drop, but Randy's broke toward 1B out of his hand and you could see it was a slider real early.  I can't think of another LH curve that comes in straight and hard like that, then pulls up short and bites in at a 45-degree angle.

Here y'go amig-O ... Paxton's curve is at 1:05 on this video.  Watch it several times and key in on the first half of the pitch vs the second half of the pitch.  Try to imagine yourself hitting, on the defensive against a hot lefty fastball, starting the bat early ... and then this pitch.

At times, his curve broke too much.  Check the 6:25 mark in the video.  When he starts it belt-high, it buries in the dirt for a garbage swing, like at the 10:30 mark.

.................

The first two pitches give a feel for what Paxton will be like when he gets his release point down.  Blaze a mid-90's fastball in there for called strike one, then drop the hammer for 0-2 and ... how many pitches is this going to take?

A 95-MPH lefthander with an Erik Bedard curve?  What would that look like?  Dr. D doesn't ever remember one specifically ... CC Sabathia is kind of like that, although CC is more pitcher than he is a curve ball monster.

It's not just my opinion.  The consensus on Paxton right now is "Number One starter with Number Five command."  So let's think for a second about both halves of that impression...

NEXT

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Comments

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3:10 Check out the eye high curve to the lefty. Just above the knees when it finishes, steeeeeeeriiiiiiike two.
That's a pitch after the 94-er on the inside black.
That'll do pig.
moe

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