Seattle Sports Insider

Jack Wilson Interview on 710 ESPN

Posted by

11/13/09

Early reports were for 2 / $10M, along the lines of what G-Money and Shields expected.

Assuming that I was confident that Wilson could OPS+ 80 or so in Safeco, I'd be thrilled to pay Wilson $5M a year. Not just because of salary/fangraphs-value ratio, but because Wilson is a guy I think I can win a pennant with.

..............

One thing that Zduriencik and Whitey Herzog have in common, was that Whitey wanted his shortstop to be a team-captain type.

Would like to see this analyzed, to what extent a ballclub draws its competitiveness (or lack thereof) from its shortstop specifically. Herzog, one of the greatest baseball minds who ever lived, believed that you needed a quality shortstop who challenged the oppoenent.

It would be hard to study the issue, because maybe the broader question is, "How do you build a properly-tuned, properly-balanced, and competitive ballclub? As opposed to a dysfunctional collection of talent?" And maybe the path of least resistance is to get your shortstop squared away, but lacking an intelligent SS, you can overcome that with (say) Roger Clemens and Jason Varitek.

You could probably never isolate the variables here, but I tend to suspect that Whitey was right -- that having a good-glove, team-captain SS moves you several yards towards capturing the flag...

Personally, I like the SS the M's will go to war with...

Q: When you came over to the Mariners, it must have been a little strange for you (after nine years of being The Guy in Pittsburgh).

Wilson: Yeah, but looking around the field, a great hitter at second base, Ichiro in the lineup, it was exciting to join a championship-caliber team.

Dr's Diagnosis: Wilson stayed on this theme. And those guys who've played some organized sports, know what it's like to go from a team of losers, that gets punk'd every game, to a team that is the bully of the league.

That right there can be the dominating factor in a career decision, we're sure.

Q from Brock: I'm impressed by how smoothly the negotiations seemed to go. How were the negotiations?

Wilson: It was fantastic. With free agency right around the corner, they said they were interested, actually I said I was interested too...

Their first offer was very close to what we expected in free agency. So it was easy.

Dr's Diagnosis: So not only is 2 x $5M (if that's what he got) a great value for the M's in the 2006-08 context ... but that's actually reflecting the market this winter, apparently. As G-Money, Jon, and Matty foresaw.

What a flippin' crash in the market. I can't believe it. For $40M, Zduriencik ought to be able to buy the 1961 Yankees now.

Seriously, what are you going to be able to buy for $40, er, $35M? Five superstars? Good time to have some money clear.

Part II

Comments

Actually, Doc...

...it's true that I was calling for this market to continue to be crushed...but I think what has actually happened is that the scrubs, minor stars and anyone who is an interchangeable part is going to get hosed while the superstars continue to get richer. In other words...it's going to cost a ton to lock up King Felix or go after the free agent considered to be the best star out there (Lackey, for example), but Zduriencik can go out and sign 7 good players for his 35 mil...they just won't be the big namers.

hmm...

From a mathematical standpoint, do you support this increase in the stratification?

From a business standpoint...

...it makes perfect sense. The more players you can find out there that contribute about as much as you do, the less urgency there is in signing you. Essentially, the entire market is realizing that thr Honda Civics model doesn't work and has stopped offering middle-tier players long term contracts. Look at what has gone on with guys like Burrell, Abreu, Feliz, Branyan, Wilson, etc. Even the pitchers who can't be absolutely counted on for 180+ innings of solid work or 40 saves are starting to get chiseled so that teams cna afford to make strong plays for the superstars.
Philosophically, I am in favor of small-business-centered economics and increased competition, which the highly-stratified baseball player market directly opposes.

I agree

I agree - it'll be like last year. The premium guys will still get paid but those next two tiers of players will be hurting. I think Wilson and his agent looked at last year, saw the outcomes that Ibanez and Abreu got and decided to lock down the early offer. Might be very smart. Nice to find yourself in a buyer's market with a bank vault full of cash.

Not bad...

Like the deal. Would have liked to see more PA or GS incentives, but it's not my money and it's a good deal even at that.

Agree ... and disagree

Matt,
I agree with your assessment that the 'spare' parts are likely to suffer in the current market, while the superstars will continue to thrive. I think your conclusions of "why" this is true are not even remotely close to reality.
The notion that the Civics approach doesn't work is patently false.
The Tampa team of 2008 was a pure Civics team. The Anaheim club os 2009 was an even greater expresion of a Civics team. Quick - can you name the best hitter by OPS+ for the Angels in 2009? Answer: Kendry Morales. The Twins were another AL playoff team. How on earth can the Twins org NOT be considered a Civics minded plan. They replace Santana with Pavano.
Heck, the Phillies, for YEARS attempted to win by getting the shiniest FA batter on the market, and failed over and over again. Today, their roster consists of DEVELOPED stars, (not acquired ones), and CIVIC pickups, (like Ibanez). Colorado was another Civics team that made the playoffs in 2009.
Outside of the Yankees, it's hard to find a club who is actually thriving with a "stars & scrubs" approach to their hitting lineup. And in many cases where you might describe the lineup as stars & scrubs, the "stars" in production aren't actually the ones getting the big money. The "stars" are the young guys who have exploded on the scene and HAVEN'T yet landed the big money contracts, but are at the tweener stage, where they're making good money for stellar production.
The two NL teams that went "all in" with the concept of Stars & Scrubs? The Mets (70-92), and the Cubs (83-78). In the AL, Detroit went from "developing young talent" to Stars & Scrubs, and went backwards.
Yes, teams with bigger budgets have an advantage. But, over the past decade, MOST of that advantage has not been in assembling the team -- but in having money to go and spend to fix the holes when they appear.
Mostly, the perception of S&S vs. Civics is based on what people want to see. Teixeira was a major pickup for the Yankees, and they won this year ... conclusion, you need to acquire big named bats to win.
In 2008, Giambi posted a 128 OPS+ at 1B. In 2009, Tex had a 149. That's a nice increase of 21 points.
In 2008, Cano posted an 86 OPS+, and in 2009 he posted a 129. THAT is an increase of 43 points ... more than double the extra that Tex brought.
In 2008, Melky posted a 68 OPS+ and in 2009 he posted a 99. That is an increase of 31.
The Yanks had 8 hitters posting a 126 OPS+ or better. They were not, in the slightest, "driven" by the offensive exploits of the one shiny acquisition.
In 2008, the Yanks were stars & scrubs production-wise, and they got to watch the playoffs. In 2009, they were stars and stars and stars. The YANKEES themselves disprove the notion that "stars & scrubs" is the "winning" model in baseball.
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However, MLB is a business, and because most people "believe" that stars are vastly more important than they are ... they will BUY TICKETS to see stars. A Tex or AROD is going to put more fannies in the seats than a Wilson or Gutierrez. But, over the past decade, the numbers of the WORST two players on the team have been a better indication of ultimate fate than the numbers of the best two.
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That said -- spending big bucks on a big time PITCHER. That is a different conversation.

Sandy...do you know what a civic is?

The fact that you call the 2008 Tampa team a team of civics proves to me that you do not.
The 2008 Devil Rays were a team of scrubs. NO ONE was making money for the Rays. Their entire payroll was about 40 million.
A Honda Civic player is the middle-tier middle-market FREE-AGENT making a medium salary (these days..that would be 6-12 million per year). And I did not claim that no team could win if there was a single civic on the roster...I claimed that the economic theory of 25 civics does not work anywhere near as well as stars and scrubs and that baseball has realized this.