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Q.  Might Ichiro rebound to +5 WAR?

A.  Nobody is asking for that.  The thing is, last year Ichiro dropped from 5 WAR to 0 WAR.  We're discussing whether he can do 3 WAR.  Capiche?

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Here, check this WAR grid, the 25 best players since 1990 (though my 1990ff filter might not survive the hyperlink; you could have to reset it).  Look at what these great players' WAR's were, at age 38.

If you don't click through, here's the exec sum:  great players like Biggio, Sheffield, and Piazza are not racking up 7 WAR per season in their late 30's.  They're fighting to post 3-WAR seasons at that age.  Even the great ones are.

Well, Edgar logged 5.0 WAR at the age of 38.  But you wouldn't count on it...

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Q.  Might he rebound to +3 WAR?

A.  All he has to do, to post +3 WAR this year, is two things:

1. Revert to above-average, not great, defense compared to other RF's like Francoeur, Swisher, and Werth.
2. Post a normal BABIP - normal for other players, not necessarily normal compared to his own high standards.

He does those two things, he's +3 or +4 WAR for 2012.  Maybe he won't.  

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Q.  Is he likely to post a normal BABIP in 2012?

A.  Here is Fangraphs' argument.  Bradley Woodrum regresses Ichiro's "expected BABIP" based only on his line drives, ground balls, etc., not on Ichiro's speed.  He finds that, had Ichiro hit his "expected BABIP," then his wOBA would have been .334, not .289.  This is compared to Ichiro's 2010 wOBA of .344.

In 2010, Ichiro posted +4.5 WAR, so Woodrum's regression is telling.

Supposing that Ichiro were to be good at BABIP, the way he was every year until 2011, then Woodrum regresses him all the way back to 2010's performance.  100.00%.

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Q.  Just through defense and BABIP?  That's a Seattle prejudice showing?

A.  Woodrum isn't a Mariner fan.  Yes, it's just through defense and BABIP.  ... Ron Shandler expects Ichiro to bounce back.  PECOTA does.  Everybody does.

None of this considers the idea that Ichiro's new WBC pals might cheer him up, or that he might swing harder in the #3 slot, or any of that.  Nothing in this article even touches those ideas.

We're talking about a mathematical regression in defense and BABIP, and nothing else.

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Q.  Is it possible for leadoff hitters to post 3 to 4 WAR in their late 30's?

A.  Kenny Lofton's totals:

*UZR docked him -1.2 WAR in his age-39 season, although Lofton's defense was above average at age 38 and age 40.  So you can say that Lofton didn't have any problems getting 3+ WAR to his teams from ages 38 to 40.

Rickey posted +2.0 to +2.5 WAR per year in his late 30's ... that was in 120 games per year, and despite defensive penalties of -1.0 WAR per year.  When he was on the field, and if you don't consider defense, Rickey was a 4-WAR player at ages 38-40.

Tim Raines wasn't very useful at ages 38-40.  Obviously it is possible for a great leadoff hitter to be a weak player in his late 30's.

Pete Rose was posting +3.5 WAR seasons at Ichiro's age, despite -1.0 WAR fielding penalties as well as -1.0 WAR positional adjustments (he was playing first base then).

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Q.  Leaving Ichiro where?

A.  Thusly:

• DWN - skeptics are right, 2011 is his new level of ability, and he's useless.
• MID - defensive metrics adjust, the BABIP normalizes, and he's a +3.0 WAR player.
• HI - Ichiro hits like Rose and Lofton did at 38-40, and Ichiro's unique defensive gifts make him a 4+ WAR player for several more years.

A picture's worth 1,000 words, and nobody will buy into Ichiro's age-38 game until he shows it on the field.  

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Q.  How was his spring training, again?

A.  He hit .400/.467/.667 with 4 walks against 2 strikeouts.  We saw him swat a 380-foot homer down the RF line that looked, physically, like 2004.  It's a small number of plate appearances, which would only have counted if he had hit .122.  Whateva :- )

Sure, HOF leadoff hitters play well in their late 30's.  You're not going to buy it, until he actually does it.  I give him a 60-70% chance at 3 or more WAR and, of that 60-70% chance, 25% of that is a chance to revert to 2010.

Take it or leave it,

Dr D