.................

IceX, one of our resident NPB hyper-experts, notes

What if this isn't about Figgins batting first, but Ichiro batting third.

Ichiro has bigtime RISP and Runners On numbers and his prowess is well known throughout the league.

Now, few really believe Ichiro is totally done, but by shoving the entire context on Figgins, batting Ichiro third gives you two things... Everyone's looking at Figgins and Ichiro gets to quietly become the extra OBP motor with Ackley infront of Montero and Smoak. The other thing is, Ichiro is probably going to get better pitches to look at with Ackley on base (Figgins on base... hahahaha) than empty leadoff. 

We wandered over to B-Ref.com to see what Ice meant by "big time" and, hold on to your lug nuts it's tiiiiiiime fer an overhaul:

Let this statistic sink deeeep into your ears.  

Why, oh why, would Ichiro's EYE be 0.40 with no RBI available, but 1.75 when RBI are available?  ... well, more in a minute, but for now chew on this:  do you remember all those times that Dave Henderson busted Ichiro's chops for simply wanting to get on base, during a rally, as opposed to grabbing the "Big RBI"?

Edit to add, after good spots by alert readers, Ichiro's EYE is 46/64 -- 0.72 -- with RISP and 2 out.  This is still double his bases-empty EYE and confirms the 11-years-long observation by broadcasters that Ichiro is "strangely passive" with RBI available.  Check that:  he's calculating with RBI available.

His lifelong K% is 10.0 with bases empty and 8.7 with men on, which is another reflection of his more-controlled approach with men on.

We wouldn't say that Ichiro becomes George Brett during rallies -- his AVG and SLG don't go up that much -- but he certainly does eliminate his fishing for sucker pitches and he applies his "toughest Ichiro AB's" to the pitcher's dismay.

=== Same Thing Last Year ===

Maybe you're thinking that in 2011, the Aged Ichiro lost this ability to go surgeon-cool in RBI situations.  You'd be thinking wrong.  In 2011, the surgeonlike Ichiro-B also showed up in RBI situations:

It is the EYE ratio that is the key feature of this chess position.  Ichiro with the bases empty is going up there thinking "200 HITS," and thinking absolutely nothing else.  He's fishing for sucker pitches outside the strike zone, refusing to accept walks, desperately gambling to pad his hit total.

On the other hand, put a man on 2B or 3B and Ichiro suddenly goes into Team Mode.  He refuses to swing at a ball, he finds a way to get on base, and the team scores runs.  

Related to this is the fact that the other teams' pitchers know how fanatical Ichiro is about 200 hits, and that he'll swing at 3-and-1 sucker pitches in order to keep the AB alive.  But with runners on, the pitchers have to come into the strike zone.  When both Ichiro and the pitcher know that a strike is coming, Ichiro is going to line the ball somewhere.

Edit again to add:  the above split gives an 11:12 EYE with RISP and 12:48 without.  That's an 0.92 EYE vs an 0.25 EYE.

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=== Man on 1B ====

What if there is a man on 1B only?  Ichiro's stats are the same as with bases empty.  I guess two things cancel each other:  it's good that the defense is compromised, but on the other hand Ichiro gets some force outs on what would have been infield hits.  Those two things exactly balance.

The takeaway is that, with a runner on 1B only, Ichiro's attitude is the same as if the bases are empty:  he wants 200 hits, period.  WHY this would be so, you tell me.

Edit to add, alert readers did tell me:  the IBB's are a big part of Ichiro's game with men on, but nobody's going to IBB Ichiro with a man on 1B only.  :- )

...............

Any situation with a runner on 2B or further, including (say) 1B and 3B, Ichiro suddenly is fine with a walk.  And an Ichiro who is selective at the plate -- including on 3-and-2 -- is a deadly Ichiro.

The weird thing is that we've been watching Ichiro do this for 11 years, and we have been subconsciously perceiving it, but not until today do we perceive it consciously.  There is an Ichiro-A and an Ichiro-B.  Given a rally to hit behind, Ichiro becomes interested in the scoreboard and in the win.

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=== Late In the Inning ===

By number of outs in the inning, Ichiro is also rash-vs-intelligent, depending on the offensive environment around him:

Part of this is the fact that you can't have RISP leading off the game, when there are 0 out.  But still:  notice the disproportionate HR totals with 0 out.  When Ichiro steps up, "playing by himself," he's thrashing away going for singles, doubles, and homers.  But when he's playing as one link in a sequence of baserunners, his brain gets washed in the cool water of the team goals and he is a far, far better hitter.

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=== IBB's ===

Edit to add, two readers noted that a good part of these glitzy stats arise from the fact that Ichiro often gets intentionally walked when he comes up in the middle of rallies.  Absolutely.

AFTER adjusting for IBB's, Ichiro's career-long EYE remains 0.59 with RISP and 0.39 with no men on base.  The difference between 0.40, and 0.60, over the course of 11 years, is still large and leaves the core point unchanged.  Ichiro bears down and shrinks his strike zone when he comes up during the middle of rallies.

..............

Granted, a lot of Ichiro's effectiveness in the middle of rallies is due to the IBB's -- and those IBB's change the scoreboard.  If you've got a hitter who comes up with runners on 2B and 3B, and the other team trembling in its boots puts him on 1B, the intentional walk is just as good as an unintentional walk.

Supposing that David Ortiz bunts to beat the shift next year, goes 20-for-23 doing that, do the twenty hits "count"?

Reflect on this also:  Ichiro is one of the most IBB'ed players in the major leagues.  Why is it that managers fear him, in the middle of rallies, and don't, when he's leading off an inning?  Because of Ichiro-B.

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=== Dr's Prognosis, Dept. ===

Ichiro's excellent performance during rallies held up during 2011.  He batted .302 with a .401 OBP, and had a 24:12 EYE.  You would almost say that Ichiro's poor 2011 was caused by the lack of offense occurring around him.

It's times like this that make he half-wish that I were a bookie.  Hitting #3 behind Dustin Ackley, Ichiro is a mortal lock to bounce back (to some degree or other).

It's a crying shame that Ichiro has spent his career playing behind .188 hitters.  I wonder what he'd have hit, if he'd been #2 or #3 with the Red Sox.

BABVA,

Dr D