Q. So the M's are now paying the price for not making the adds that they needed to make.

A.  :- ) We thoroughly enjoyed our man Geoffy going off on his video blog.  (Did you know he's getting like 8,000 to that podcast?!  What do the A's get to a baseball game?)

We also think Geoffy has a whale of a lot of light bulbs on that his nemeses don't.  Probably more light bulbs, overall, too.

...........

We remind yer, though, that (say) Adam Laroche and Jarrod Washburn would have added, perhaps, 30-40 runs (3-4 wins) to this team.  Let's keep that in proportion, when we're talking about the difference between a wasted season and a division title. 

Two mediocre MLB(TM) adds, this winter, just don't represent the point of critical mass.

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Q.  Was the sabermetric analysis off track?  Is this lineup doomed for lack of power hitters?

A.  The lineup could very easily turn out to be too weak -- if the scrubs fall through.  If the catchers have bad years, if Tui's not ready, if Kotchman posts another 91 OPS+, if Bradley doesn't hit, sure.

But!  Bear in mind that David Pinto's "sabermetric analysis" was very simple, and not particularly sabermetric.   He merely did this:

• 1.  Average out* what our 9 players had done the last 3 years.
• 2.  Run a simulation of how many runs those 9 players would get, full season.
• 3.  Report that this number was +150 over last year's 9 players.

It was not "newfangled sabermetric analysis" that had the M's gaining a run a game.  It was simply noting the fact that Bradley, Kotchman, Figgins etc. have in the past produced +1 run a game more than Beltre, Betancourt, Saunders, etc. did in 2009.

Things could go wrong for the M's lineup, sure.  But these 9 guys have hit in the major leagues.

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Q.  How long till they turn it around?

A.  Well, if these 9 guys* hit for an OPS+ of 62 all year, we're going to have a lot of fun tracking the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.  :- )

But in reality, Chone Figgins isn't going to OPS+ 39, Ichiro's not going to OPS+ 56, Kotchman's not going to be in the 30's, Wilson isn't going to be at 0.

It's five bad games.  They are not going to OPS+ 60, guys.  Know the difference between a bad week and a set of bad players.

.....

If the Rangers had lost tonight, they'd have been 1-3.  Would any of yer have figured they were done?  Nah.  Like we sez, all y'all (over on the other sites) are too close to the situation.  ;- )

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Q.  Anything else?

A.  First look:  SSI is afraid that Bill James was very, very right about the A's pitching.   But that's okay.  Best they're going to do is 95 hitting and 115 pitching -- in a dream world -- and that would have them running in the front of the pack.

Hopefully with the M's.

Cheers,

Dr D