Maybe the most awesomely polarizing figure who is currently playing in the M's minor league system. :- )
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=== Frank Thomas or Bryan LaHair ?, Dept. ===
I/O from HQ:
Grade 7C. May see some time in the majors in a role. (Mike Carp had a grade one notch higher, at 7B, and Matt Mangini had a grade 2.5 notches higher, at 8D.)
Big and strong. Productive at level - led all of minor leagues in RBI.
Mature approach at plate has produced excellent AVG as well as OBP, and not without some "interesting" power to left field (Poythress bats right hand).
Lacks trigger and load in swing, which HQ projects to eliminate his power at higher levels of minor leagues.
Lousy defense, though can play the position well enough to stay on the field.
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I/O The Rest: Not in John Sickels' top 20, Poythress does, however, make his next 18 "of note."
Not in Hardball Times' top 10. Not in Baseball Prospectus' top 20. Not in Fangraphs' top 10.
Jason Churchill does like Poythress as an ML prospect, ranking him #17 and ahead of Alex Liddi (#5 for HQ), ahead of Ji-Man Choi, ahead of Beavan and Raben and Wilhelmsen and Halman.
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Maybe am remembering this wrong -- probably am -- but it seems like it's been G-Money against the world when it comes to backing Poythress. Is that correct?
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Poythress' Results: Poythress was of course a superstar in a major NCAA conference, posting Ted Williams numbers a la 375/475/750 -- refusing to swing at balls and then swatting them over the fence once they arrived.
Since Poythress played in the same South'n Y'all Come Set a Spell conference as Frank "Big Hurt" Thomas, and since they're both Fantastic Four / Thing sized first basemen who clomp around like the Thing, hit the ball about as far and since they share the trait of TTO pitch stalking...
I thought it would be amusing to see how much better The Hurt had been, in the same conference .... he wasn't. Poythress was even better than Frank was in college. Well, you know.
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Poythress was taken Round 2 of the draft, and Thomas was taken #7 overall.
Their first years out of college, Thomas and Poythress faced adjustments:
Then in their second years out of college, Thomas and Poythress hit well, though not so as to scare the women and children:
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Pothress had an OPS well over 1.200 the last the months of the season. He also hit 17 HRs on the road so you know its not completely a High Desert mirage.
I'd have him top 10 for sure, maybe top 5. The one guy in our system who might be an impact hitter either than possibly Choi.
The probability of him turning into an impact hitter still isn't very high, but a strong '11 coould really open some eyes.
Than a Grande-Size nacho plate full of MLB(TM)-style paper-doll cutout minor leaguers who are developed to someday bat 260/320/410 in the majors...
17 dongs on the road - this dude can go deep any time he squares it up. He ain't going to leave a lot of 'em on the warning track...
If you check out the "NFL TE Catch" that is linked in the post below you'll find another link to a grad slam he hits. Wide stance, looks relaxed, tiny stride, even gets fooled a bit (he's out in front), but keeps the bat in the zone and "Boom"...or "TING" considering the bat material. Anyway....Lot's to like in that approach/ability.
Big guys who walk some and punish mistakes are REALLY valuable. How about the Boog? He did all right. .260+-.360+-25 HR's....That's a pretty "Boog-ish" line. And that makes for quite a number 5 hitter!
He looks interesting....And there isn't much to go wrong in the approach he has at the plate. Short swing, short stride, recognize a pitch, hurt it. If he shows he can turn on a MLB fastball...he'll be really interesting.
:- ) Heh.
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Ya, that's a good way to put it, not much to go wrong. Some athletes are just naturally simple in their games. It's wonderful to see when it happens.
Agree: would like to see Poythress deal with mid-90's heat. Guess here is that the little swat-swing will hold up well to high heat...
Was at the Kingdome for McGwire's 570-footer off of Randy Johnson's 97 mph fastball... pulled it into his power alley...
At the age of 22, Michael Saunders hit .310/378/544 with K's in 17% of his PA's and walks in 9% of his PA's in Triple-A while batting left-handed and playing a quality center field. Despite this, people poo-poo him, say he doesn't have much upside and isn't a very good prospect.
On the other hand, at 22, Poythress is stuck in A-ball in an EXTREME hitters league (not just home park) and doesn't produce much more than Saunders managed at the same age at a much higher level and tougher park. He also struck out more often (18% of the time) without walking more and provides almost no defensive value. Poythress is not even as good a prospect as Shin-Soo Choo was at the time. At 22, Chewie was in Triple-A and walking a lot (14% of the time), plus had speed and played the outfield. Yet Rich gets compared to Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas gets talked up as a Top 5 player.
Here's a reminder of what kind of environment he's playing in:
The park's 3,000-foot altitude mixed with 25 mph wind gusts blowing out toward left field are part of the reason the Mavericks have hit 163 home runs in 131 games through Saturday this season -- 33 more than the next best team in the California League.
"The best part is that you don't have to try too hard," said High Desert first baseman Richard Poythress, who's third in the league with 30 home runs. "The ability to go up to the plate with a relaxed feeling is going to make any hitter successful."
Remember, Brandon Wood hit far better (.321/.383/.672) at a younger age when he was in that league and has never approached the numbers he had there since.
I don't think that saying this guy has a chance and a nice upside is banging on Saunders. I've learned to like Saunders, a bit. I would rather he was in centerfield, perhaps...but I like him a lost mofe than I did a year ago.
By the way...Poythress looked pretty dang relaxed in college, too. I get the snese that it is just his makeup.
The California League, meanwhile, is one of three leagues in high Class A, alongside the Carolina League and Florida State League. And while High Desert is the main culprit, California League teams are averaging 108 home runs per team, while teams from the Carolina League and Florida State League average 81 and 65, respectively.
It's not just that one park that is a hitters paradise, it's the entire league. So saying he hit home runs on the road doesn't mean his stats aren't extremely inflated.
Poythress doesn't have anywhere near the amount of pro experience that Saunders does. That's the difference. Well...that and Saunders' swing looks like someone attached a bat to a drunken discus-thrower's arm...long, loopy, with a hitch and some serious repeatability issues...whereas Poythress' swing looks graceful and quick and relatively level.
1. Saunders was in pro ball at age 18. Poythress is a college player. You're using birth certificates when, with HS vs NCAA players here, you should be using pro experience.
2. Saunders IS at the front of the line, both with the Mariners and at SSI. I've said that I think he'll get 3,000 AB's in the majors and that he might hit 30 home runs some year, albeit with a .260 AVG.
I'd love to see the Mariners flip Guti and start Saunders in CF. I'm not quite as ready as that, to start Poythress at 1B.....
3. Age-arc isn't the only slider bar on the evaluation equalizer. You talk as though prospect evaluation is as simple as [OPS] divided by [age] by [league level]. It is mainly Poythress' physical profile that interests me, not his saber arc.
4. Poythress can't do anything about the fact that he was in a hitter's park, except hit, which he did.
5. Poythress isn't stuck in A+. That's where an NCAA slugger plays his first year. If he's real good.
6. You have a tendency to chime in *only* when you don't like something you hear. That doesn't make for quality info-tainment.
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Except for that, I agree with everything you said.
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You're a Saunders fan and that's great. I wish the Mariners would trade Guti for a bat and put Saunders in CF.
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As Ichiro's stats might or might not be deflated, playing in Safeco.
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I don't visualize a Top 100 prospect putting up a much different line from Poythress. There's a point of diminishing returns, a syndrome wherein average players and good ones tend to post similar lines.
It's possible that in the alternate reality where Poythress was in a pitcher's league, he posted a weak slash line, but it's also possible that he wouldn't have. We don't get to simply hack his stats down and say "that's what HE would have done."
Context adjustment speaks to the value of a run, not necessarily to what a player would do differently in a different place. That's pure conjecture.
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:shrug: Poythress played one year out of college, in a hitter's park and league, and wiped it out. What else could he have done?
It's his physical tools and template that catch my eye. This year, we'll see.
I can see Poythress becoming Richie Sexson and would be delighted if he did so. It's just that every young M's hitter the last 5+ years has totally flamed out even though many of them had better resumes and/or tools than Poythress. Jose Lopez: junk. Jeremy Reed: junk. Wlad Balentien: junk. Jeff Clement: junk. Matt Tuiasosopo (so far): junk. Michael Saunders (so far): junk. So when I see a very flawed player in A-ball being compared to some of the greatest hitters of all time it seems like all perspective has been lost.
When you say "compared to," I hope that you read the articles, and the comments following.
Again, if Poythress were in the McGwire mold and of equal talent measure, he would of course rate ahead of Pineda and Ackley, by far. I've got him #5-8 in the org.
Paxton's in the Blow 'Em Away Lefties mold, but that's not to say that he was born with talent equal to Sandy Koufax.
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We're talking about hitter and pitcher families. If you're going to issue harsh rebukes, you might want to get the other guy's ideas straight first.
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That the Mariners are getting very little production out of their hitting prospects is true, and becoming increasingly alarming.
This is not saying that Poythress has no flaws, but I'm not sure after one productive season of him doing better than might be expected, that you can call him a "flawed" hitter. Minus striking out a bit less, what more could he have done last year to establish himself as someone to watch? He had numbers that were remarkably similar to Chavez's. He was 3rd in his league in homers, 9th in OPS, 7th in slugging....and minus Chavez, who is a year younger, everybody else was the same age or older. In his 2nd year with wood bats he figured it out. He even fielded .990 at 1B. He played in a hitter's league...but he was one of the handful of best in the league at an age that was, at least, league appropriate.
As well, I'm not sure anybody has "compared" him to the greatest hitters of all time other than one point that said his college #'s were better than Frank Thomas'. That is a pretty small kind of comparison? Mostly I see people identifying a possible "upside" of Poythress, and doing so by mentioning players of similar skill set.
I mentioned Boog Powell as a guy who had a stat line that Poythress "might" "possibly" have the ability to reach, "maybe." Boog was a big guy with a fair eye, like Poythress.
Greg Vaughn and Richie Sexson are hardly all-time greats.
In watching the little video of Poythress that I found, I kind of like his very simple approach at the plate. He looks like a big country boy (I have no idea where he is from...so it is just a saying) who has a very easy/simple approach at the plate. Simple and short and powerful makes a nice swing. If he can turn on a MLB fastball he has a chance.
I think that, even in this saber-world, people who evaluate talent still are influenced by whether a guy "looks" like the classic template of a ball-player; broad shouldered, slim wasted, etc. I think the guys with Cust-like builds have to overcome a bit more because they don't "look" like ball-players.
I think we discount that .260-.350 25 HR MLB production because none of it stands out as superb. But together it is a fine product. I don't know if Poythress can walk 90 points....probably not. But I think he's potentially better than .260 at the plate. Could you live with .280-.340, 25 HRs at 1B/DH. Would you be tickled if Smoak and Cust put up those numbers this year? I can see that as a reasonable possibility.
He's a guy to watch with interest.
That seems to be the consensus, that he comes with some major negative, but ... I don't see a negative in his EYE profile. I've seen a bunch of ML stars do the same, or worse, at that age-arc.
I wonder if it isn't plate discipline craze run amok - no offense to any posters here. Poythress gets no respect nationally.
Plate discipline is a wonderful thing, but it's not like you need to be 1'ish to be a blue chipper.
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Again, we're saying that Poythress is in the McGwire / Thomas TEMPLATE, not that he IS a McGwire-level prospect!
If he were, then he'd be one of the top 2, 3, 5 prospects in all baseball.
He isn't, but I sure love his path to the baseball, and what happens when he gets there.
Best-case scenario is likely something close to Richie Sexson. Pothress may not be a top 150 prospect yet, but hes definetly one of 10 guys I'd protect in the system.
M's are a bit thin after propect #3 so we need some of these guys to take steps forward next year.
His strikeout percentage was what, 21%? Sure, it's not as pretty as
Here's a nice rebuttal of some of the claims against Poythress:
http://fansided.com/baseball/2011/01/27/debunking-myths-about-rich-poyth...
He didn't strike out as much as some other highly-touted players, he's not really old for the level, especially since it was his first full pro season, his BABIP was reasonable so whatever lift he got from the parks and league was not raised by luck, and while better against lefties he didn't embarrass himself against righties.
Again, I'm not saying I think he'll be Sexson. I'm saying if things work out for him that's his template. He could be Brad Nelson as well, no argument. That's why AA is so interesting this year.
BTW, Richie Sexson hit AA at age 21 (3rd full pro season, 4th overall) and posted a .775 OPS with low HRs. He wasn't exactly done as a prospect at that point. Prospects are allowed to grow - if they came into pro ball fully formed this wouldn't be any fun. ;)
Poythress had low-ish power, especially for the league, in the first half of the season. His power went up in the 2nd half, but his walks dipped slightly and his Ks went up. Noise, or meaningful? Dunno. Maybe he has to compromise his eye to drive the ball, load up and anticipate and therefore whiff more when he gets a different pitch than he's expecting.
Maybe he's just still figuring out pro ball. That's perfectly fine. I don't expect him to be a game-changer. He could be a platoon player, or nothing at all.
Or the man could be a valuable piece. Poythress, Chavez and Seager all had monster years in the Cal League for different reasons. We need one of them to be a valuable piece, either in a trade or for our team. This team is not done with this rebuild by ANY means. If Seager can replace Figgins for minimum wage, that's 9 million bucks we'll have to spend on someone else. If Chavez or Poythress can crank 30 HRs in the high minors and the pros, then we've got that RH power bat that we desperately need to even out our lineup.
Fingers crossed that we can start getting some hitters to GROW as hitters as they progress up the farm system. It'd be a nice change.
We're not gonna be drafting #2 again for a while, I hope, so some of our lower draft picks are gonna need to start workin out...
~G
The Unstoppable "Big-Hurt" Force faced the Immovable "Erikkkkkk" Object yesterday.
http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2011/03/15/bedard-and-poythress-...
Our budding Big Hurt won.
Baseball Prospectus's top 3 comparables to Poythress: Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Kent Hrbek.
Now, cause of Cool Papa, I'm going to be known as the guy who comp'ed Rich Poythress to Frank Blinkin' Thomas.
Now I know what Bill James felt like in 1988.
Thanks for the catch...
Their comps include height and weight, I think... the age-and-arc stats that they use might match up to those guys okay, but will be the first to concede that Poythress' accomplishments to date are not super remarkable...
As with, say, Jay Buhner back in the day, it is Poythress' physical tools (natural strength, compactness of swing, etc) that are super remarkable, and BP has no way to capture those...
Still... good stuff Rick...