As far as the template - the attributes and resources - go, our comps will need to mosh off the following defining attributes. We'll pair off the sparring partners if they're packing these heights and weights:
Hm. Jeff Francis is pretty much like that, but I'll take Hisashi Iwakuma over Francis for my rotation next year. Francis is averaging a zippy 84.7 MPH on his fastball this year. Still, if you are particularly contemptuous of Iwakuma's number one, think Jeff Francis. Who would be a rich Mariner right now if it weren't for the inestimable blessing of Kevin Millwood and his one-year make-good deal.
Chris Capuano - there's a very reasonable stylistic comp.
Shaun Marcum - here's a guy who mixes 5 pitches, maxing at 28% on the fastball (!) and his signature pitch is most definitely the changeup (1.38 run value career). How in the name of Luis Tiant does this meatball fan 8.4 men per game? He tops out at 87 MPH and his fastball doesn't rate!
As a matter of fact, check the pic above and you'll see that Marcum has an Iwakuma-style short stride - which lengthens the distance that he has to throw. How would you like to throw from 61 or 62 feet away? But Marcum does probably the best job in the majors, mixing 4-5 pitches and attacking with them.
If I am Hisashi Iwakuma, I am living with Marcum and Capuano DVD's under my pillow. Not that they are my superiors. But it's like Paul McCartney once said: "I vaguely mind anybody knowing anybody knowing anything I don't know." Whichever intern is "spying" SSI like a middle linebacker on Michael Vick? Get Iwakuma some DVDs on these two, can'cha.
James Shields has the devastating change, like Iwakuma does (assuming you count the Shuuto as a variation on a change) ... his fastball is a fair bit longer.
Hey, Shields is down to 91.0 MPH this year, while Iwakuma's at 90.6 ... whatever the F/X says, Iwakuma's fastball plays shorter than Shields' does. But still. What is you amigos' opinion about this comp? I'll put Iwakuma's shuuto up against Shields' vaunted change, so... the key question is simple. Do you think that Shields, as he stands right here right now, has an important extra hop on his fastball that commands respect not available to Iwakuma.
Send it out for X-rays and a second opinion, preferably starting with G's.
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That gets across the idea of upside, here, though. Shields has orchestrated a TOR game off that change and, if Iwakuma continues to sharpen his harder stuff ... well, a pitch like that Shuuto can weigh heavily. If you're drinking the Iwakuma kool-aid, how do you rule out a couple of years as James Shields if everything breaks right for him?
Time was that Hisashi Iwakuma's arsenal drew contempt in the bigs. Thanks to Marcum, Capuano, Trevor Cahill, Francis' hot run, other guys, t's much more fashionable now. Marcum, Capuano, maybe Shields pitch the way Iwakuma needs to. Take two DVD's and call Dr. D in the spring.
Cheers,
Jeff
That the high walk totals have been more a result of not giving in and throwing a "please, hit it at someone" pitch and knowing his limitations and not challenging certain hitters in dangerous situations. I also like Tim Hudson as a comp; thin, not particularly tall, lots of decent pitches (though Hudson's fastball and slider also grade out as plus pitches) with a very good split finger.
He even throws the shuuto (Pineiro does). It's a a shuuto by every definition that matters (its' particular movement). The swerveball/shuuto with drop and run is Pineiro's out pitch. It gives Iwakuma 2-3 years of potential success before, like Chien-Ming Wang...the league books him.