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Fangraphs rates the M's dead last in team defense based on UZR/150.
After watching a bad start get drowned by worse bullpen work tonight, I wanted to take a closer look at the pen. We have a plan to replace all the BOR starters with high-quality pitching talent, but is our build-from-within bullpen the way to go to make sure those guys don't take a bunch of hard-luck no decisions while the Ms take the loss?
The Mariners have made no secret of the fact that they want to assemble a killer bullpen on the cheap. Using a few decently-high draft picks, some trade pieces and scrap-heap additions, they are attempting to make a lock-down pen full of 95 MPH arms for basically nothing. Detroit's spending about 11 million for theirs. Philly is dropping twice that.
The Mariners? Not even half of what Detroit's spending. Rule number one to a cost-controlled team is finding cheap ways to do what other people are doing expensively, and shaving 10 or 15 million dollars off of bullpen expenditures certainly should provide funds to deploy in other areas. And since "closer" is a fungible spot to many people, skimping on the bullpen monetarily doesn't mean you have to under-deploy in talent. In theory.
Is it working?
In a word... sort of.
Our 4 million dollar pen is putting up the following ridiculous numbers:
K per 9: 9.8 (!) - the Braves might have the best pen in baseball and they're striking out 2 per 9 less than that.
ERA: 4.25 - aka 27th in baseball. The Braves are first.
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So how do you strike out everyone and still suffer through an underperforming pen? We had an illustration tonight, where Carter Capps came on to face a bunch of lefties and promptly gave up 3 runs. Carter has struggled this year, which is kind of funny considering he's striking out 11+ per 9 with a K:BB of 4.5. It's the hits (also 11+ per 9) and the lefties that are doing him in. His BABIP is enormous - opposing batters are having all kinds of luck against him, but they're also hitting him hard, especially lefties.
vs RHB: .796 OPS, .404 BABIP
vs LHB: 1.170 OPS, .344 BABIP
Deploying him against lefties in a lefty-friendly park maybe wasn't the best move. He's giving up too many hits to both righties and lefties though, and for too much power. Is that a bullpen-wide phenomenon?
Braves Pen: 7.8 K/9, 2.4 K:BB, 7.0 H/9, 1.15 WHIP, 2.65 ERA, .267 BABIP
Mariners Pen: 9.8 K/9, 2.7 K:BB, 8.4 H/9, 1.33 WHIP, 4.25 ERA, .306 BABIP
So yes, we're a little wilder than the Braves but with the extra Ks we can afford it. But the hits are falling against us that they do not have to weather in key situations, and it's driving the ERA through the roof. We're actually middle of the pack in OPS-against, basically league-average in batting-average against...
But we're atrocious in our DIP% (the rough-out of the difference between stat-predicted and actual ERA). Is that un-timely hits with runners on? Sure, for some of it, but as a team we're not bad with either runners on or RISP.
Is that defense? Could be - we've been running bad catchers out there, a busted up CF or three, and now newly promoted kids up the middle (we're the youngest team up the middle at C/SS/2B/CF in baseball).
But honestly, IMO it's not the middle of the D that's necessarily the problem.
# of bullpen pitchers with a 35+% flyball rate:
Mariners: 6-of-9
Braves: 3-of-8
Balls are getting to the outfield and they just aren't getting caught. When they are played on a hop, our defenders can't stop the run game. The catchers haven't either. We're losing a base here and a base there, a bloop hit here and a too-high-HR-rate there. It adds up.
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Is that the pen's fault? I certainly can't blame them for Bay's fielding or the various OF injuries, or Ackley learning a new position on the fly (no pun intended). Whatever parts are the pen's could just be growing pains, and getting players like Pryor healthy. Wilhelmsen is a good pitcher who is still inconsistent. Same with Capps who is hit WAAAY too much for the stuff he possesses. Furbush and Farquhar have been brutally unlucky in parts. There's a learning curve, and with a pen this young we're behind it. On the staff as a whole, the young guys are the ones with the anchor of that steep curve making life difficult.
Staff pitching OPS by age:
25- : .805
26-30: 679
31+: .732
The future is killing the present, just based on that chart. But the idea still seems sound to me: get a bullpen on the cheap from plus arms in your possession (hello, Yoervis) and use the difference to pay for help in other areas. We definitely have those.
Just looking at some of our luck stats and outrageous ERA woes, we should get better. This pen could go from wobbly to lock-down in a heartbeat or twelve. And if it doesn't, we have Moran (he of the 13K/2BB per 9 line in AAA), Burgoon and Smith (righties K'ing 12 per in the upper minors) and others who are on the rise. We can find the right mix internally - we have plenty of pieces. I still believe usage needs to get better (we don't use the right pitcher for the right job) but the pitchers have to actually do their jobs when they're called on.
The makings of a great bullpen SHOULD be here, assuming Pryor gets back to health and we continue to get high-quality arms off the farm. Might want to keep a guy like Perez though, unless he can get you a closer-price in trade. I still think we're trading him by the end of the month, but there's something to be said for having a vet who knows his job and can get it done.
With swagger, too, I might add. Too many of our young arms don't have swag, and with 97 mph heat you'd think they'd bring attitude too. I guess getting hit around the park is humbling - but humility isn't a good quality in a bullpen arm.
Dominance is. With the number of high-quality arms we have, though, dominance should be a findable commodity.
~G
Comments
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While Capps is running a 12 hit / 9 rate, he is unique in the bullpen with the particular trait.
The aggregate BB/9 numbers for the pen are horrid. But, the two reliable guys (Perez and Medina) have miserable walk rates, but good results.
My question is this? What is the "out" pitch for ALL the bullpen?
I have this nagging suspicion that the bullpen has a weakness grounded in over reliance on raw heat.
I don't have the eyes on knowledge, but based on Fantraphs, Perez is killing with his change, (while his FB is getting clobbered). Medina's FB is also subpar.
But, I get this sense that the club is obsessed with heat in the pen. Four of the top 5 guys out of the pen (in innings) have velocity of 94.5+. Perez is the "soft tosser" at a measly 92.2.
I wanted Moran up ahead of Farquhar BECAUSE he's a soft tosser, (even though they had very similar numbers in Tacoma).
Capps' pitch values show his FB is getting creamed, and he's got nothing else.
The two guys with decent results, Medina and Perez are getting great value out of Slider (Perez) and Curve (Medina).
Is the problem that the entire pen has developed the Brandon League pitch-sequence-don't-matter attitude?
Due to sample size, ERA isn't always a good way to judge individual relievers. So, Medina and Perez are almost certainly not as good as their ERAs and the rest of the staff might not be as bad. But, the typical bullpen should run an ERA about .3 runs lower than the starters. This club is almost a half run HIGHER. That's a dreadfully bad bullpen in aggregate results.
The two problem *I* think are creating the bad results are control issues, (Capps is the only guy with a reasonable walk rate - actually refusing to nibble as they continue to crush his FB) ... and this fixation on heat.
I think opponents are simply sitting on the pen FBs ... and the secondary pitches are simply not good enough.
And when you move from reliever 1 to 2 to 3, there simply isn't enough variation in style to get the benefit you would normally expect when hitters have to change their mindset or approach.
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Watching Sergio Romo sit down Puig, Gonzalez and Ramirez in the 9th yesterday with a 90 mpg fastball and some good bendy stuff was illustrative. Heat is nice but it can't be the only thing you focus on.
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I agree, the Mariners have a ton of guys who throw 94+, and they're righties. In that sense, I don't think Moran helps because he's a lefty, and we already have Furbush and Perez with tremendous breaking pitches from that side. Do agree that Moran deserves a shot, and I'm a big fan of his.
But yes, hitters are sitting on the fastball. I would expect that. Medina's slider is nasty, Wilhelmsen's curve is basically unhittable when it's over the plate, and Pryor's slider when he gets back can be monstrous.
I'm not sure that matters. Everybody knows what Chapman and Rivera are gonna throw and are sitting on it - it just doesn't do them an good. What's been bothering me is how hittable 97 from Wilhelmsen or Capps (especially Capps) has been. They're leaving fat pitches in the middle of the plate. Maybe they don't have the necessary command of the zone to throw it anywhere else, and if so then we should trade them. Flat heat in the center of the dish is just too appetizing.
I don't think that's the case... but I do wonder about pitch selection. Now, when Wilhelmsen can't throw his curveball over the plate for a strike then no one's gonna swing - of course they'll sit dead red. But I don't see us stand up enough players who are leaning over the plate. Our fastball pitchers pitch scared (another reason I wany Pryor back and at full strength - he's an attacker mentality).
I dunno if that's having a bunch of catchers who are inexperienced like Montero and Zunino, or what. But I don't like WHERE the heat is being thrown. Sitting heat has been a time-tested method of dealing with fireballers since the dawn of time, but it doesn't mean you club them all over the park.
And I can't believe our entire pen full of righties suffers from a terminal case of Brandon Morrow disease, who has an effectively average fastball (TOTALLY average) for his career even though he throws mid-to-high 90s. Without his slider, Morrow is a nobody, and that's proven out in his career with one decent year in the rotation even when he's leading the league in Ks. It's hard to be like that, though, especially from the pen. The idea that we ONLY have those kinds of pitchers... I guess I just think the odds are low.
I think it's a matter of approach, and defense. We'll see the rest of this year and next, I guess. Stand up a few guys so you can get the outside edge, and run down a few more flies, then see how we look.
~G
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A pitcher needs two pitches, one they're looking for and one to cross them up.
Warren Spahn
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