Five years in, and 2/5 of your starting rotation are bottom-of-the-barrel MLB placeholders. Five years in.
Five years in, and for the first time you have an offense that isn't an embarrassment. But that's about the best you can say for it.
Five years in, and you haven't been able to find a shortstop who can hit above .200.
Five years in, and your #1 draft pick from two years ago, the one that was the most MLB-ready coming out of college, has yet to sniff the big leagues
Five years in, and you've traded away 3 - count 'em - 3 top of the rotation starting pitchers, potential Cy young contenders. In return you got 2 hitting prospects who have struggled to hit league average, and a serviceable bullpen lefty.
Five years in, and you've failed to bring in any top-tier free agents that you've targeted.
Five years in, and attendance keeps dropping, the advertisements sound more hollow, the team is still trying to find a spine or fighting spirit...
You can analyze the various moves all you want, and justify each and every one of them. But all that really matters in the end is the results.
My emotional leash to Zduriencik is getting really, really short.
Comments
I can't argue with anything there, GLMUSKIE, but I'm with Gordon on this. With the apparent wealth of minors' talent, Jack has loaded the weapon. Might as well give him a chance to take the shots.
If those miss, he's gone. But let's see.
Number of club-controlled TOR starters traded: one (Fister). Fister is a horrible gaffe, was at the time, is now.
Number of other good starting arms with issues traded: two (Morrow and Pineda). Morrow has ONE season with an ERA under 4.5, and this isn't it either. Pineda still can only throw 50 pitches, likes to eat like Mongo likes candy, and may never throw another big-league pitch again. Or maybe he'll be great, but either way he's been lost for 2 seasons).
Number of potential Cy Young winners traded: one (Cliff Lee, who was never re-signing).
Am I missing anyone? For Morrow we got an All-Star closer for a coupla years. For Pineda we got a headcase pitcher with a great arm and a lazy batter with tons of potential. We also coughed up Campos, who could be very good but was also injured for a year and is still in A-ball, so that's a hard one to judge.
The big gripes against Jack's trading are that 1) he traded Fister, and Fister is exactly what we fans believed him to be, and 2) he didn't get the immediate results out of the top-10 prospects acquired that we demand. If Toronto had given up Brett Lawrie for Pineda we would never have this....problem... oh wait, Lawrie is as bad as Ackley this year. Seager is mopping the floor with both Ackley and Lawrie.
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I agree with you that in the 5th year I want contention. But 2/5 of our rotation are bottom-of-the-barrel because injuries killed our young TOR guys and because the Ms have cut 35 million dollars in payroll from that 2008 squad the year before Jack took over. Do I think he can put a contender out there for what we're paying? You'd better believe it. Oakland can do it for less.
Hultzen is injured. Not sniffing the bigs because of minor injury a year and a half after being drafted isn't failure.
Toronto got top-tier everything. How are they doing? Ditto the Angels (ignore tonight on that score, we're still better than they are, and they have as many holes as we do with twice the payroll).
*shrugs* Them's the breaks. Sometimes you just need guys to pan out. It's not like we had guys here 4 years ago who STILL aren't panning out. There were VERY few players, minors or majors, worth keeping from the Bavasi era. It's the fifth year for fans but the Bavasi purge wasn't done for the first couple of those.
It's entirely possible that Jack doesn't deserve to keep his job because he can't build a team, just add lots of pieces that he hopes will congeal into a team.
And if this team loses its way this year (like if they keep losing for the next couple of weeks the way they've lost this last week) then he and Wedge may be gone. But the next guy is gonna get a WAAAAY better situation than what Jack was given. The system rebuild is complete. Now we just have to figure out how to deploy and use the assets.
And hope they get healthy, stay healthy, and produce. That production thing has been the bane of Jack's regime so far.
Young players gotta step up, or they'll be doing it for a different coach and GM.
~G
There's a huge philosophical question: when a talented player runs into a holdup, do you try something else or do you see whether you can build on the learning time you've invested?
James made a number of fascinating points about this, which pretty much line up with your observations point-by-point. He's got some data, so maybe with next post we can kick the soccer ball down the field on that some.
First question you've got, is WHO precisely replaces the talent that you're bailing on. Where you're undecided, where it's at all unclear, it's better to resist the knee-jerk impulse to flush the guy you've spent your time on. But if there's any doubt at all, you want to take advantage of your investment. In the cases of Ackley and Smoak, the "threat" of roto bustouts is completely realistic.
Smoak and Ackley, as you note, are making it that much tougher to bail on them because they AREN'T inflicting a huge cost on the inquiry. A very even-handed survey, this...
G is dead on,
We traded away Fister. A big loss. Still a weird trade. I'm not sure what Z thought he was giving up or thought he was getting.
But Morrow has been all over the place and was with the M's. Trading Pineda was a calculated risk, an old fashioned arm for bat trade. It hasn't been a terrible dea. We've probably got the better, if you think that PIneda's injury was bound to happen anywhere. Montero isn't and All-Star, but he isn't chopped liver, either. He still has a chance to be a nice MLB player.
We were never resigning Lee.
I've no problem with Z's trades, outside of Fister. Can anybody access/link a Z interview after that trade?
I do think he handled the Figgins problem in an atrocious manner. He couldn't have been worse on Figgins. Signing him was WAY questionable, and then (when he had proven he was basically done) keeping him over Wak was a great error.
Signing Bradley was cheap, but folly.
I think he was right with Maurer, right with Saunders....but Harang turns out to be a poor decision. There may not have been many good ones out there at that point.
I'm convinced the SS deal this year has been badly mangled. Andino must go. Ryan still isn't going to hit.
Carp? I think that was a mistake, but one I long ago figured would happen and would live with.
Bay has turned out to be a nice call. Probably Raul, too....but on that one I'm not sure. Raul was a good call if his 41-year old veteran presence was somehow very valuable in and of itself. I'm not buying that , yet. We had to be in the hunt and his bat had to be a factor for him to be a valuable bat, in that he's in the way of other guys who might have a chance in '14 or '15. Raul won't. But he has those homers this year. I was totally against Raul. I still mostly am. But I've moved a bit....and will give Z that.
All in all.....I don't see a guy who has excelled in player acquisition or totally flunked that class. Give Z a "C." Maybe a "C-." There are two classic bozo moves (Fister and Figgins) and no classic "Wow" moves, the sort a guy can hang his hat on. If Smoak become a .300-.400-.420 guy, that might be a "Wow" move (sticking with him). I can not see him getting there. Is all that enough to bring him back? Could go either way. May depend on whether he re-inks Wedge. I don't think we're going to see 3 more years of Z/Wedge. Were it my money, I'm not sure I would do that. No blame here, but clear improvement is what is demanded, and we may not have seen enough proof of it
The M's led MLB baseball in attendance in both 2001 & 2002 with > 43,000 per game. A brief summary of the M's attendance decline:
1) 2002 - 43,709
2) 2006 - 30,634
3) 2010 - 25,746
4) 2013 YTD - 20,098
Let's play Limbo -- "How Low Can You Go?" The Cleveland Indians in 2013, with an excellent team that is playing exciting baseball in a very nice, relatively new stadium - are averaging 16,149. Recently the M's recorded
So the M's could easily lose an average of another 4,000 fans per game if they continue their losing ways and don't generate any buzz or excitement. Lincoln and Armstrong have presided over the decimation of the team's fan base. But hey, look at the plus side, there won't be any traffic jams in SODO and the Port of Seattle can move its trucks freely about without impediment from game-time traffic congestion. Look at those M's senior executives, always concerned about the public good......
IMO, this falling attendance, combined with the prospect that it could fall even further & the established difficulty of drawing fans back once they have lost interest, will force even Lincon and Armstrong to make some sort of move, any move just for the sake of appearances. Cutting off the heads of GMZ and Wedgie appear to me to be the only moves they can make, other than firing themselves, which appears unlikely to me - however pleasant the idea is to contemplate.
I personally see no scenario for GMZ and Wedgie to survive into 2014 unless the team wins > 80 games and ends the 2013 season on a positive note with reasonable expectations of play-off contention in 2014. And I am not even sure that 80 wins allows GMZ and Wedgie to survive if the team is completely out of even the possiblity of a wild card by June 2013 and the 80 wins are achieved by a long September win streak against AAA callups.
It’s been 5 years, so thank you for the timely evaluation of the Jack Zduriencik regime. If I were evaluating Jack Zduriencik, I would weight his recent performance and approach more heavily than what he did at the beginning. He and his organization have grown and adapted to the job.
Also, the decision isn’t limited to keeping or letting Mr. Zduriencik go. There is the middle option of modifying authority. For example, Jeff Kingston, the assistant GM, could be given more say.
I believe Jack Z can build a contender, but what I really hope for is that he can build a perennial contender.
Here are some possible avenues to achieve that:
1) Move to a 5-year budget.
Reason: a predictable upcoming rise in broadcast revenue. The result would be more money available now for investing in the future (as well as free agents). Examples include: locking up club players to long term contracts and greater budgeting for Player Development, Scouting and ‘recruiting’.
2) If Jeff Kingston is providing sound quantitative analysis, insist on a greater role for him in the decision making.
Reason: greater revenue will entail more long term investment decisions. The success of Tampa Bay and Texas in turning dollars into wins suggests that the marriage of good quantitative analysis and good qualitative analysis is an essential part of making sure money is well spent.
3) Invest more in player development, scouting, and ‘recruiting’.
Reason: Homegrown talent has become more valuable due to rising revenues throughout the league. Also, the importance of recruiting has increased with the implementation of hard caps in the minor league draft and internationally. The Mariner’s, perhaps recognizing this, announced investment in a new Dominican Academy this winter. Can you think of other ways the Mariners could enhance their recruiting ability?
IMO all Jack and Eric need to do to stay on in 2014 is:
(1) Avoid sustained embarrassment, such as the BIG season-shattering swoon we've referred to.
(2) Finish NEAR 80 wins, but do it in a way that sustains hope.
(3) Finish fairly strong, i.e., avoid a lousy September.
Lincoln and Armstrong have clearly shown that they are willing to tolerate low attendance, even for a sustained period, as long as payroll remains relatively low and they can convince themselves that better times are on the horizon.
I DO agree that there is a limit to this patience. I think Jack just has to avoid anything that seriously compromises the faith his Bosses have shown in him. How long before they say, "Enough is enough!?" I don't know, but if I'm Jack I'm getting VERY edgy.
What happens when a 75win team cuts payroll while missing on every blockbuster they tried?
Expecting 80 wins sounds somewhat fair, but if one thing is enough to evaluate a GM's performance we could just as easily focus on the farm (solid A grade?) Plan A and a failure to look at plan b? Wasn't Hamilton or Upton in that plan A or plan A/B respectively? I see several upgrades made that seem to have been plan B at best andmost of them are positive assets now. Failure to hit on plan A hasn't stopped Z from improvements.
Montero is 23. Not enough info to instill a little patience? 23 year old working at catching in the show. We're talking about 101 AB...last years .260/.296/.386, while not being All-Star level, isn't floundering. I do understand asking about his coaching at this point but beyond that what should we really expect?
Ackley is old enough to be a bit more worried. 2 years older with an additional 469 MLB PA...he's still only had 2119 pro PA though, 1203 in the AL. Beyond that I just don't understand how he could not put it together. Anything can happen.
Smoak is the oldest at 26 and appears to have put something together as he cleared 1500 MLB PA early this season. It's not stellar either, but his MilB stats never seemed to profile All-Star in my opinion anyway. He's looking like a positive player now.
I like the idea of trying out Franklin and Zunino when they're ready. How unfortunate that the closest 2 position prospects happen to be at those positions...Zunino isn't ready now, so why is Franklin pounding AAA when we need more offense in our MIF? A bit of Franklin at SS and some at 2nd seems so obvious. Feed Andino to the woodchipper and bring up Franklin. I know I'm far from the first to say it, but what this team needs most seems like it might be working on promotion in AAA. A #5 that will keep the team in most of their games and a couple of "gamer" position players with bats at our worst present offensive positions. Harang, Andino and Shoppach can be the ones to go when those respective moves are made because Zunino can coexist with Montero and Franklin, Ackley and Ryan can split 2b/SS PA until further review. Franklin up on the off day would be nice to see.
That pitching spot is more guesswork in my view. Do you want Bonderman, Noesi, Carraway or Beaven while waiting for Hultzen, Ramirez and Paxton or maybe even Walker to be healthy and ready?
Our 3 biggest present problems (Back of Rotation, Middle Infield offense and Catcher defense) don't seem to be long term needs. They are the 3 spots we have the most likely close to show prospects. When to move on each is the question. Franklin and a SP ASAP, Zunino and the higher upside pitchers need to show something more right now so waiting is the only option that seems reasonable.
That the team had too many OF was considered intellectually unsound by most and yet seems to have been wise in hindsight. Morse and Guti both had injury histories that made them both going down simultaneously a foreseeable possibility. It was only that Saunders went down as well that an outside piece was needed. Was it all foresight? I mean, the 3 Mariners weakness' are all things that are covered with high minors prospects. The other holes appear to mainly be plugged. I've got nothing against what Z has done and couldn't grade him lower than B- overall. What this front office did with the minors in 4 years is almost an automatic B in my book, it's nearly unprecedented in MLB history. Acquisitions that can be fully graded (or going off of impressions at the time) are on the + side during his tenure even with a blunder or 2. Very few people had anything bad to say about the Figgins acquisition at the time and nobody thought his downfall was more than slightly possible.
Boohoo about Fister and Morse, (Vargas and Jaso? pretty happy with those deals, thanks) ...Gutierrez, Jaso, Vargas, Morse, Morales, Lee acquisition and dump, Iwakuma twice, Felix contracts and those are just the regulars. Half the current bullpen.
Zduriencik has only improved the MLB product by wins every year since the last 101 loss season. His 2nd year was a step back, otherwise wins have risen. If things continue like this, they will keep improving. This is not failing and floundering as we're used to in Seattle, that's going on in Toronto if you're confused by the difference. This is a team that has been hauled up to a couple pieces from competition and those pieces may be a mere few months away...Why are we even discussing dumping the architect? The building is coming along the way I see it.
Pineda wasn't a club-controlled TOR starter when traded? And he had no 'issues' when he left town, else the Yankees wouldn't have traded for him.
If Cliff Lee was 'never re-signing', then that's an indictment on Zduriencik as well. A GM should be able to recruit and sign top talent, period.
You can break down each individual decision or event and justify it, sure. I'm taking a 30,000-foot view and evaluating things as if I owned the Mariners and Z worked for me. Where are we at right now, and is that what I expect after 5 years on the job?
If I owned the team, I don't care how the Angels and Toronto are doing less with more. I don't care how the A's do more with less. I care about the progress our team has made, is making, and how we are positioned to contend for the next few years. If after 5 years we're still sending tomato cans to the mound half the time, that's a failure. If we still don't have a shortstop who can hit, that's a failure. I wouldn't care about the 'breaks' that led to Hultzen getting hurt, or whatever. Maybe if Hultzen had been promoted earlier he wouldn't have gotten hurt, you just can't say. What happens on Z's watch is what I would hold him accountable for.
Brendan Ryan agreed with that assessment.
“This is a whole different brand of baseball,’’ Ryan said. “This isn’t the brand of baseball we wanted to come in here and play. The losses in Cleveland were tough, but the hunger and drive was there.
Quote:
“This isn’t good,’’ he added. “We got behind and I don’t know, that determination – that if they score 15, we score 16 – didn’t seem to be there. I don’t know if we were feeling bad for ourselves, or what. But it’s a good time for an off-day.’’
- Brendan Ryan
Brendan Ryan last 10 games:
TOTALS 34 3 11 1 4 2 9 1 .324
Entire Season: SEASON 37 110 8 21 26 2 0 1 8 10 0 26 3 1 .191 .262 .236 .499 1.18
The Mendoza Line is an expression in baseball in the United States, deriving from the name of shortstop Mario Mendoza, whose batting average is taken to define the threshold of incompetent hitting. The cutoff point is most often said to be .200,[1] and, when a position player's batting average falls below that level, the player is said to be "below the Mendoza Line". This is often thought of as the offensive threshold below which a player's presence in Major League Baseball cannot be justified, regardless of his defensive abilities.
I agree that recruiting will become more important, especially internationally and in later rounds of the draft. Internationally, I would start putting more money into community outreach and local community investment. Develop your brand as an organization that doesn't just take advantage of young kids trying to get off the island, but as an organization that cares about the community. Build schools, sponsor scholarships, help fund community banks - that sort of thing. Domestically, improve your facilities and the resources available to players. Maybe create an alumni network to help guys find jobs when baseball is done, or scholarship programs for kids signed out of high school. Actually, I think a number of orgs do that already. The main thing is that you want the experience for players to be a positive one.
I think we're in the midst of it, no? I believe it's a six game losing streak as of yesterday.
I'm with everyone else that the sooner Nick Franklin is in Seattle, the better. The Ryan/Andino hole at the bottom of the order is terrible and depressing. But even with that hole in the lineup, the bigger issue is pitching and the fact that beyond Felix and Iwakuma, it's really all question marks. I'm fine with Brandon Maurer in the rotation, but he can't be your #3 starter. That doesn't compute. Maybe in a year he's ready for that, but not now. Harang has to go. They need to call Bonderman up to take his place in the rotation and move Walker up to AAA in his place. If Bonderman can't do the job, then it's Walker's turn. I think the only reason Walker is in AA right now is to keep a lid on the pressure to bring him up.
They should also be having conversations with Philadelphia about Cliff Lee.
This team has got to show something this year.
It could turn out in hindsight that THIS swoon is part of THE Swoon. Or not. We don't know yet.