Seattle Sports Insider

Giants Strike a Blow for Dumpster Diving

Three Russell Branyans in one offseason? I could go for that

Posted by

10/29/12

Get You One, supposedly a rummy-type card game that Puggy Pearson cut his teeth on. It was a game in which each player maneuvered for position, then had to give his opponent Last Chance to draw and play out whatever points he could. "Get You One" (from the draw deck).

The 2012 Giants were put together ... using a model the 2013 M's might want to snip? Well, let's see:

The Giants' pitching had a teamwide 95 OPS+
The Giants' hitting had a teamwide 107 OPS+
The hitting was based on a 170 OPS+ from Posey, three Russ Branyan scrubs, and a long slew of 85-95 OPS+ from internal guys

The Giants did get two pretty decent internal contributions from Belt (124 OPS+) and Sandoval (124 OPS+). This would be like the Mariners getting that from Seager, Saunders and/or Jaso - oh, wait. The Mariners did get that much.

How about the slew of 85-95 OPS+ performances? Casper Wells, Mike Carp, Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, all those guys are already giving near-100 OPS+ performances. Huge black holes are no longer the M's problem.

In order to emulate the 2012 Giants -- if that's what you wanted to do -- you'd need two things:

You'd need Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, or somebody to hit like Buster Posey did.
You'd need three super-cheap Russ Branyan scrubs who cashed in like Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, and Marco Scutaro did.

Offhand, I can think of one cheap Scrub that the Mariners ever brought in who gave them a Melky Cabrera 2012 performance. That being Russell Branyan, who Jack Zduriencik advance-scouted from Milwaukee. There are probably one or two that I'm forgetting.

If you want to understand the Giants' 2012 miracle, here is the guts of it:

Angel Pagan came in on a 1-year make-good deal, $5M, and gave the Giants 4.8 WAR.
Melky Cabrera came in on a 1-year make-good deal, $6M, roided up, and gave the Giants 4.6 WAR in 70% of a season before getting suspended. (That's effectively 6 WAR, with the jobshare partner.)
Marco Scutaro came in midseason, hit .362, and gave them 2 WAR in about the last third of the season.

That, and Posey's 170 OPS+, was the big offense that made up for the 95 ERA+. It's kind of like that soup the kid made in Ratatouille. Even he wouldn't have been able to make it the next night.

I'm not trying to be contrary. That's my analysis, for whatever it is or isn't worth. If you want to bet your next offseason on your ability to come up with three Russell Branyans simultaneously, Jack, it's your funeral.

The Giants took the 2011-12 winter off, closed their eyes, and hoped against hope. It worked out. Good on them, but I'm not modelling my own offseason plan on that.

=== The Hidden Value of Scrubs: Get You One ===

One of the main reasons that roto sharks use Stars & Scrubs: the more you cram into the top 5 slots, the more $1M players you have who can overperform their contracts.

You buy a $5M Angel Pagan and a $6M Melky Cabrera to draw a card. Get You One! You're paying for 1.0, 1.5 WAR but who knows. They might get you 3 WAR or 4 WAR or.... for the Giants, their three Scrubs got them 5-6 WAR each in the second half.

The thing is that dynamic, talented young players also Get You One. Mike Carp has the same chance of overperforming his salary that (say) a discounted Johnny Gomes would have.

Get it? "Got it!" Good. -- a team without young talent takes a flier on Russell Branyan because that's its draw at the 3-WAR deck for 1-WAR money. But the Seattle Mariners have a dozen 3-WAR draws as it stands. You've got Smoak. You've got Ackley. You've got Montero. You've got Carp. You've got Wells. You've got Liddi. Hey, Eric Thames is a draw at the 3-WAR deck. Nick Franklin is. John Jaso is ... whoop, he already flipped and is a face card. You get the idea.

Let's run the positions real quick:

1B - Smoak, Carp - no point in importing cheap vets for a draw here
2B - Ackley - no point. (Also Seager, then Franklin are draws at 2B)
SS - Ryan - married to him; he WAS 2.7 WAR in 2011; Franklin behind him
3B - Seager 3.6 WAR last year
C - Jaso 2.7 WAR in 70% of a year. Montero is a draw we paid Pineda to pull
CF - Saunders 3.0 WAR last year if you consider fielding neutral

No way in the world you import vet scrubs at those positions. You've got two positions left to work with. And why opt voluntarily to pull Scrub draws in LF and RF when you've got the money to do better than that? Is 'cause you like drawing cards? You gotta spend your money someplace.

The Scrubs part of the roster strategy, for this particular team, is pounded into mincemeat already. You know what to do. Cheap young Scrubs are looking good at every infield spot including catcher, and at CF. Two Yahtzee slots on the card, LF and RF, and Ichiro's salary miraculously and suddenly gone.

Earlier somebody axed, why not a handful of our best and brightest for Wil Myers, AND a big contract for Josh Hamilton or his ilk? ... um ... what else exactly is there to do with this roster?!

Comments

Wait! Include.....

Include a RF platoon of Wells (123 OPS vL) and Thames (107 OPS vR), Add Zunino (let's just give him a conservative 100 OPS).
Now you're down to one position. If you figure Guti is here for the last year of his deal, then it's a 1B you're looking for. If Guti isn't one of us, then you find the LF.
We've got Seager and Saunders who are safe bets to get more than 50 extra-base hits. A job share of Wells and Thames in RF gets you there, too. Two more of those in the lineup (Ackley ? Montero/Jaso platoon?) and you have an offense.
If we find a Branyan, we're in the WC hunt.....using our resources wisely.
We're sniffing.....
moe

Can't afford another bust year at 1B/DH

The Giants didn't have to worry that their DH wouldn't hit. They just had their pitchers bat until they played in Detroit. For the beloved M's, Carp had his season lost to injury, and Smoak hasn't grown up yet to be an MLB player (will he ever?). Montero/Jaso and the rest hit poorly at DH. Do you risk your season and draw twice from the 3-WAR deck for these positions again, or do you hedge your bets by adding a solid 3-WAR Billy Butler? The biggest thing you give up to get him is pitching depth in the organization, and the money is nothing. I had never considered Moe's suggestion for the RF platoon, as I had discounted both Wells and Thames as replacement level. However, I cant imagine Thames' butchering in RF vs 60-70% RHP for the season. Maybe he can hit as a DH platoon vs RHP instead.

Well if we're dumpster diving...

The A's just let SS Drew go, and the Dodgers let OF/1B/DH Rivera go too.
If either is healthy, they would definitely be an upgrade.

Nah

Rivera is now basically a 95 OPS guy, upside.
Drew has value, but it will cost to see it. A's released him (or bought him out to the tune of $1.5M) because his contract called for $10M next year. Let's assume he's a $5-$7M guy then. With Franklin banging on the Safeco door, We don't need to throw that chunk of cash at Drew. He was a nice player froom '08 to '10 (2.7, 2.7, 3.7 WAR), and could be a nice piece at the right cost. But he would come as a backup, so pay accordingly.
moe

Corner Outfield

is really the only spot the team is absolutrly lacking right now. No one we're excited about at AAA that is a natural fit, not really anyone at AA yet either. Everywhere else is a guy with a shot at being a Top 10 Prospect in any organization.

Places for a bat

I agree corner outfield is the spot(s) to most easily put a bat or two. However Jack has the option to trade a player of some value from any position except outfield. I suppose he could even trade Saunders but I find that unlikely. Any of those being traded away could conceivably open a spot for a more solid veteran that's not too old. I don't think its likely that he makes more than 1 trade without exactly that happening.
Consequently any player that is the right fit at any position could be worked in by moving another player. It also means that we could match up with almost any team, as long as they do not only desire a veteran or outfielder. We are not used to this being a real possibility in the past. Most offseasons there are only a couple spots that a player being replaced would have value to other teams. Zduriencik has done an incredible job creating all these options. I would be surprised if it didn't wind up in at least one trade that brought in just the right player because of the quantity of options available and Jacks penchant for trading in general.
I'll admit catcher is dependent on either the trade partner viewing Montero as good enough defensively or the mariners being willing to sell high on Jaso and find more of an everyday starter or deal with some instability at the position for a time. Seems unlikely but not entirely improbable if it meant getting the right player at another spot.
I think we will all have to get used to there being this depth of trading options with Jack at the helm. That's very comforting.

Sizemore

The dumpster-dive play of this off season is Grady Sizemore, although I fear carrying both he and Gutz on the same roster. He won't be expensive and you can't really rely on him to give you a lot of AB's but the upside on a $1.5 million one year contract is intriguing. If he breaks, you put him on the DL and use Thames. If he's healthy, Thames sits in Tacoma until he isn't.

Not bad

I could live with such a cheap signing.

I'm not high on Sizemore

He is, at this point, only worthy of play against Right Handed Pitching (.891/.693 OPS split career, .801/.638 in 2011) and probably isn't worth anything in Center anymore even if he could play it without shattering. So that leaves you with a corner outfielder you're hoping to get maybe an .850 OPS out of vs. Right Handed pitching, which we more or less already have in Thames (except of course that you could expect Sizemore's defense to be significantly better). Last year I was interested, but this year, I feel like he's too big a risk to be worthless for a minor upgrade on Thames. Plus, Left Handed Bats aren't really the issue with Seager, Saunders, Ackley, Jaso, and the aforementioned Thames on the team already.
I'm much more interested in picking up Kevin Youkilis at maybe 5 mil as a backup Third Baseman/First Base Insurance/DH.

Yeah

Yeah, I'm not high on Sizemore but if you are looking for that 3+WAR for $1.5 million lotto chance, he's your guy. You give a guy like that a non-guaranteed contract and if he comes of of ST healthy maybe you have something. If not, no loss. I certainly wouldn't plan the off season around him by any means. 2013 is probably his last real shot and some club is going to give it to him.