Caveat: I am not a leading nutritional expert, and each situation will be individualized to the patient, and so as you say I can not hold up Truth here. That said, will weight loss of pure body fat lead to a decrease in strength? In theory, no it should not. However, it is highly unlikely that the weight loss program you described (short period of time, with fasting etc) resulted in no loss of lean body mass. I suspect that this is the case with Felix also, although I have no idea what his program was.
It also may be possible, even likely, that while dieting/exercising, Felix just didn't feel great and maybe didn't do quite as much throwing specific preparation prior to ST. In that case, it may simply be that his arm strength is lagging behind where it normally would be at this point. This interpretation could be compatible with Felix's own statements, e.g. "It's only ST, man".
I doubt that there is a direct correlation between weight and velocity (see Chapman, The Freak, Stass, Paige). Obviously different body types, pitcher styles etc.
It will be interesting to see what happens as the season plays out. It is pretty interesting how effective Felix has been without his best velo. If he turns into a RH Cliff Lee, I'd be ok with that. Worse comes to worse, we could put him in the 'pen (J/K).
Edited to add: I'd be ok with Pedro, too.
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Carl Willis was asked about Felix' loss of velocity, which occurred at exactly the same time that he lost 20, 30 pounds, or whatever it was. Willis said that CC Sabathia always said that CC feels stronger when he's heavier.
Thin people :- ) will assume that there is nothing more to that statment, than CC trying to justify his overeating. I'm not a thin person myself, don't have a slight frame, so don't share the animosity - on the part of some thin people - towards carrying an extra 20 or 30 pounds. Personally have a very big frame, a big arm for QB and SS, and my weight has always varied.
At one time I lost 40-50 pounds in six weeks, got on a roll and actually had fun fasting for 2-3 days at a time, had fainting spells and the whole 9 yards ... by no means anorexia but I could relate. :- ) Got down to a weight that really bottomed out - couldn't have gone any lower except in like concentration camp circumstances, probably. I'd fast a day or two and not lose weight. Ran 12K's and didn't lose anything but water weight, that kind of thing.
Yes, I lost some of my arm. Could not throw a football as far. So can definitely see the possibility that Felix lost 10% of his arm by getting down to a weight that's not really natural and comfortable for him ... or at least what he's used to.
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=== Calling Dr. Grumpy, Dept. ===
Would be very interested in hearing Dr. G's ideas on two questions:
(1) Does it sound feasible that weight loss -- even if essentially just loss of bodyfat -- could cause any measurable decrease in applied muscle power?
(2) If so, would you as a doctor consider "prescribing" a 20-lb. weight gain for an athlete like Felix?
Supposing Felix said, "Okay, doctor, I need you to call this one for me. If you say so, I'll hit the fried chicken and steak and potatoes. If you don't I won't." How would a Dr. handle that question from a patient?
Not that Dr. G, or any one GI doctor or nutritionist, can be expected to deliver Truth on the subject. Nutritions are notorious for disagreeing with each other. You've got vegan nutrionists on one side, Dr. Atkins on the other, and all colors of the rainbow in between. Still, Dr. G can speak more literately than any of the rest of us, on this issue.
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Certainly NFL coaches will encourage offensive linemen to gain bodyfat, though the sports principles are a little different. And Earl Weaver wrote that he encouraged Boog Powell "to eat all he wanted," because Boog did not play well at lower weights.
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=== Prognosis ===
I'd personally guess a 10%, maybe 20% chance that a weight gain for Felix would give him back his fastball -- or that his fastball will "naturally" return for one reason or another.
Weight loss or no, I'd give the corresponding 80%, 90% chance that Felix has seen his best fastball days.
Assuming that the loss of the FB is unrelated to weight loss -- and I do -- the rest of the series applies. If the assumption is wrong, the rest of the series is moot.
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It is rare, rare, rare for a starting pitcher to have the same velocity in year 10, that he had as a rookie. CC Sabathia's velocity, and weight, are HIGHER now than when he was a rookie.
Felix has been the game's best pitcher, carrying an extra 25 pounds. Now he's down 25, and no longer throwing hard. I'd hand him a bucket of chicken and encourage him to put 20 pounds back on. I really would.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Never thought of that. Sounds very plausible.
Am on the run today and can't get to the computer later on, probably, but wanted to thank you for the case review Dr.
Or could be his legs aren't quite there yet? Apparently that's what Pettit has been saying about his comeback attempt. Doc, have your analytical skills detected a less vigorous drive forward with Felix?
At any rate, I think this ST is valuable teaching experience for him (as long as he's not hiding an injury). He can dominate without heat.
I would be surprised if weight loss was directly (and exclusively) responsible for the velocity drop.
It looks like there has been a declining velo trend for a while and this may just be the next step in that trend.
The 22 year old Tiger Woods attacked every golf course by trying to overpower it.
Tiger at his peak however, used that power judiciously and relied on his vaunted 3-wood stinger and unbelievable imagination.
There is always a transitional aspect to the games of the best. One of the things they almost always learn is conservation of energy, as well.
He'll throw 91-92mph this year. Coupled with the other stuff that bamboozles guys, it will be more than enough.
moe
Leg drive is a big deal, and if Felix was riding bicycles and dieting instead of doing lunges or squats... *shrugs*.
I'm not concerned at all about Felix's velo drop yet. If it's May 25th and he's throwing 89, okay, that's a different story.
But for right now, I have very few concerns about The King. And I'm fanatically paranoid about expensive pitchers blowing up right before our eyes. ;)
With him, I'm content to let it ride.
~G
Amongst all players in baseball.
Pujols, Halladay, Miguel Cabrera, Verlander, then the King.
Nice to see some West Coast love.
~G
... than the chess analogy. Sterling post.
It's funny how the Woodses and Nicklauses who start out their careers out-driving the field ... seem invariably to morph into "specialness" at the finesse part of the game, too.
Maybe, some of the same things that made them "special" power players --- > come into play as they become "special" virtuoso players? Such as imagination, concentration, confidence?