...The one-hopper to the mound syndrome from Maddux (and Santana) is what convinced me to track pitcher assisted ground-outs as a DIPS event. I realize that it's still a fielding play, but it's one that can only be generated if the pitcher did something really well. DNRA uses pitcher-assisted ground-outs in the same way that it uses Ks. A free out that doesn't count toward the pitcher's BABIP.
FWIW, Ramirez didn't get any comebackers yesterday, but he did get a ton of weak bounders to second or short and nice easy two-hoppers to third, two of which created GIDPs.
So yeah...the grounders were softer than league average yesterday. And with his smooth mechanics and minimal effort, he finishes standing tall and level most of the time...you can tell when he's trying to get a punchy though...he falls off toward first just a bit more then.
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Q. He can pitch better? He gave up three hits, one walk and 10 strikeouts. That's got to be a Game Score of 90 or something.
A. He can pitch way better. He didn't throw that good Monday.
Tom Seaver once said that when he was right, a catcher should be able to catch 80-90% of his fastballs by --- > moving his glove at the wrist. One of these days, F/X will give us a Seaver Percentage. Number of times the catcher had to move his glove more than, say, six inches.
Dr. D has been charting Noesi this way; he's about 50%, give or take. Problem is, the other 50% miss badly.
Erasmo Ramirez threw, I would say, six pitches that hit the mitt on Monday. We're talking about fastballs. And the misses were frequently way off.
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Q. So why didn't he get splattered, like he did his first two starts?
A. The major thing was, he threw 45% fastballs, not 70%, so they were in between. But the minor ... well, what's between minor and major Zum-bro'? Medjor?
The medjor thing was that when he missed Olivo's mitt, he missed OFF THE PLATE, not over it. I think I saw only five or six pitches that missed into the danger zone ... one was the HR to Smith, and another one was to Smith but he popped it up.
A pitcher can aim a fastball at one of two spots:
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If he aims it at the RED spot, and it randomly misses by 6", then guess what? It misses away, it's a perfect pitch ... it misses in, it's a tater pitch. He is guaranteed a strike, but is taking a risk.
This is the risk that Japanese pitchers are used to taking. They aim at the red star and watch amazed, tater after tater, as American League hitters blast their mistakes into the third deck.
It is also the risk that AAA pitchers like Erasmo are used to taking. They get tons of strikes, and get away with most of their mistakes. They arrive in the bigs and are shocked to see mistake after mistake launched with regularity.
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Seasoned big league pitchers, such as Kevin Millwood, never aim for anything but the GREEN spot. If it randomly misses in, they're still probably okay. If it misses away, it's a ball.
No doubt it's a lot harder to pitch when you're behind 1-0 and 2-0. But it's the price you pay for facing Albert Pujols. Hisashi Iwakuma, Erasmo Ramirez & Co. have to accept that green vs red idea.
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Q. What about the guys, such as Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda, who can routinely throw it into the mitt?
A. Best of all worlds. :- ) They're always 0-1, 0-2 with no homers.
That's the thing. Erasmo is capable of that, but has not done it yet. I shudder to think what would happen if he pitched changeup-first, and had his pinpoint command with him. 95 MPH into the mitt, on strike two? ::shudders::
Erasmo did this a few times Monday. The first batter Crisp, he fired a 94 MPH laser beam right into Olivo's mitt after two offspeed pitches. He did almost the same thing to Weeks, next up. Two easy strikeouts. EASY strikeouts, no chance at all. Ramirez, with his mechanics, is capable of doing this much more often than he's shown so far.
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Q. Any keystrokes left in there?
A. Just enough for this:
ng-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 116, 189); text-decoration: none; ">June 25, 2012 - his Key Weapon
4 June 25, 2012 - the Eckersley Clause
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Comments
Per BA, IIRC - 2nd youngest by 4 days in all the majors to Altuve (Harper and Trout were in the minors). He turned 22 last month.
He did not learn how to pitch with a 95 mph fastball. He was a control artist who had an 88-90 "heater" as a teen (as many teens do). There are times his fastball gets away from him - throwing 94 is new and exciting.
His rising fastball is dangerous as all getout, though; most pitchers try to throw at the bottom of the zone with the heat, but IMO Erasmo should throw the change to die at the bottom of the zone for a strike and the fastball up. From his height "rising" heat looks different. Might as well take advantage of whatever benefits being short gives you. That's how Oswalt does it, right?
Erasmo is a good fielder of his position, as well - those one-hoppers Sandy is talking about will be in good hands.
Look, I love the kid, and have since he was "no kind of prospect." He can get wild with the fastball, or sometimes he'll just have control but not command. He'll have occasional games where he has no feel for the change and gets pounded.
But now that he's remembered that his changeup is by far his best weapon (some of those swings made me laugh in ways that usually only Felix starts make me laugh) and Olivo showed he was willing to call it as the major pitch and not some 10-pitch-a-game afterthought...look out.
He'll drop random sliders and curves in for strikes, just to make batters hate themselves, but his bread-and-butter will be fastballs inside and up, changes away and down.
And unlike Noesi, he has no pulse jump with runners on, or when he gets in trouble. In some ways that can be bad - he does not like to be forced out of the zone. But he's a BABY. BTW, Montero was the 5th youngest player in the AL - having him teach pitch sequences to Erasmo is no bueno. Hopefully Vargas or Felix takes him under a wing.
As Erasmo learns how he has to pitch at the major league level I expect good things from him. And if (when our rotation makeover is complete) there comes a day when Ramirez is our worst starter, we'll have a very, VERY good rotation.
I look forward to that.
~G
and Andrew Carraway have one weapon that very few in baseball have; a keen intellect. Both Ramirez and Carraway are going to out think the opposition on a nightly basis. Neither have a signature pitch, but both have three serviceable pitches with at least two being ++.
In many respects, I'm more than a little surprised that you didn't approach the write up on Ramirez from a chess angle. Ramirez and Carraway both are great strategists on the mound and are thinking three or four pitches ahead.
Why you get a chance, research Erasmo Ramirez a bit and you will learn some interesting things about the kid. You'll come to realize that he has a gargantuan will to succeed and has over come one challenge after another. At the very least, you will find his story more than a little inspirational.
Lonnie
So whether that was nerves, or listening too much to his catcher, or simply not having a feel for the changeup that day I can't say. But there's definitely gonna be an adjustment period from the minors for many Thinker-types, because unlike a Pineda they can't just chuck a 97 MPH fastball somewhere in the zone while dreaming about daisies and hoola hoops.
What got out minor leaguers may be slammed for homeruns in the bigs. Cliff Lee is a thinker. Moyer's a thinker. It took them a while to get their big-league careers where they belonged. The growing pains of learning big-league hitters and the mistakes not to make can take time.
OTOH, Buehrle's a Thinker and he's been good since he stepped foot in the bigs. I hope for Erasmo to have a small adjustment period. His change-speed game is certainly good enough if he can avoid centered fastballs in fastball counts.
Trusting his true plus pitch (the change) in all counts instead of relying on a fastball that straightens out as he throws it harder will make all the difference. I'm really glad he got this game out of the way so he can remember what it feels like to dominate major league hitters if his approach gets a bit off later.
A consistent Erasmo is a deadly Erasmo.
~G
Never having seen Erasmo ... and "scouting" from my blind spot ... I would note one side effect from a killer change up pitcher ... (once he's booked and the bats adjust).
Greg Maddux was the king of change for a decade. And he didn't have a plus fastball ... but the singular trait of the Maddux template was ... one-hoppers back to the mound. Maddux won a trophy case full of golden gloves. But he generated waaay more chances due to that change.
So I would look for two things in regards to Erasmo as a change-up artist. First is how he finishes on his follow through. If he's in good defensive position then his upside is much, much higher. I would also pay attention to up-the-middle hits. Maddux got a blizzard of one-hoppers ... mostly easy. But he could field the occasional soft liners, too. But, even after the timing was right on his change, the vertical axis created painful results for hitters.
The flipside of the centered FB is the centered change. That's the pitch that once booked can become a HR or a single to Center ... or ... if he really is special ... a one-hopper for an out.
You guys are hitting the nail on the head, IMHO, with the 'thinking' angle.
There are certain pitchers, Glavine, Santana, you know the type, who are long-striders (not on the mound; like horsies who want to run a long race). You want them going through a lineup three times.
It gives them a chance to set hitters up over the course of 15-20 pitches - to get some BENEFIT out of the fact that they invested 4-5 pitches on a hitter to sequence the next 10 pitches.
Santana ran a 6.47 ERA in his rookie year, 80-some innings out of the pen; he didn't have his chess game dialed in. Give a Santana/Glavine a full three times through, let them get into chess mode, and you've got something.
We talk starter's rhythm on various guys, but Erasmo is a real outlier that way.
You could ... almost ... visibly see Erasmo 'get it' during that A's game. The Santana touch for getting a lineup in between. Let's hope.
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One quibble with my sideways-MC cyberexec: I wouldn't undersell Erasmo as having marginal stuff. I think that the changeup, mixed into the game properly, is a game-changing weapon, an asset few ML pitchers enjoy.
Also the mechanics, and perhaps the command, carry Fister-ish potential. (Fisterian? Fisteresque? Fisterly?)
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The Glavines, Santanas, Moyers, etc. have the stones of burglars and they think through every pitch like surgeons. Your insistence Lonnie that Erasmo has this makeup ... that would be an Essential. component of a big career for Erasmo.
As we're talking about this I'm getting pretty psyched about the kid. He throws another three games in the same style, we're talking a 150-win scenario for him IMHO.
As with Kyle Seager, Jay-Z darted, tagged, and labeled Erasmo from the earliest possible moment.
To what extent do you suppose Zduriencik saw the things you two see ... I mean, was it makeup, command, velo/change separation, or what would you guess....
I mean, if you can separate GB/LD/FB, it's reasonable to separate 1-3's back out of that. We count infield pops; why not badly-topped GB's?
Matt, does Johan Santana get a disproportionate amount of 1-3's? Did Moyer? Other guys whose change-speed game was elite?
Sandy, did Tom Glavine get more 1-3 comebackers than the typical starter?
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To answer your first Q San-Man, it doesn't look to me like Erasmo is notably good or bad as far as fielding position. He starts quiet and then explodes max-effort through the stride, ending with his back foot and head awkwardly pretzeled. But it's not falling off the mound or anything.
How about a quick video take on Taylor Ard (here)?
I love, love, love guys who generate plentiful power with very low strikeout rates -- that's this guy in spades. K% at WSU was 9.3% with .577 SLG. A 6-2, 225 horse with Pedroia eye, kinda.
Could be Vinnie, part 2, with a 7th round pick (Vinnie went in the 10th round), but I'm trying not to get carried away.
Churchill has a blurb take today, too.
Here's a comparison of Moyer vs. Randy johnson in the pitcher-assisted non-SH putout column from 1997 to 2007:
MOYER:
29
22
39
21
24
30
30
21
22
33
26
Randy Johnson:
11
19
23
14
18
9
7
11
20
17
3
Some of that is trajectory, but Moyer was a flyball pitcher. I think the change-speed game was helping him.
Striking. OTOH, Randy wasn't exactly a converted short stop out there, lol.
RJ was the gangliest, most awkward looking player on the diamond whenever he pitched. :) But still a comebacker isn't hard to field if you're not halfway to first when you land and know how to throw. I agree though...RJ lost some grounders due to bad posture and mediocre fielding chops to be sure. Most power pitchers are terrible fielders. But I still think the change-up artists are creating defense independent outs on comebackers. :)
Get to it ASAP -