Seattle Sports Insider

Edwin Jackson's Plateau Leap - II

Posted by

11/22/09

=== Roto, Accountability, and Predictive Validity ===

There aren't any charts keeping track of bloggers' predictions on which pitcher will jell. Nobody goes back and says, "How many Lincecums did this guy have and how many Schmidts did that guy have?"

We're not in the realm of the sabermetric when we predict Edwin Jackson's future. Nobody's bringing a convincing set of comps, running a regression, and saying, "here's Jackson's chance to sustain his progress."

If Brandon Morrow goes out in 2010 and rips off 25 straight quality starts to open the year, running a 2+ ERA into September -- nobody will have a convincing set of comps for his 2011 either.

It's not math leading us to an inescapable conclusion. We are squarely in the realm of human intuition here.

There is one type of blogger who accepts accountability for his guessing on young pitchers: the roto owner. In rotisserie, you forecast performances and then you are returned a metric on the quality of your guessing.

There are guys whose guesses on Edwin Jackson I would be very interested to hear. It is that group of people who consistently win roto championships.

....

Mikey Jay? I'd love to hear what he has to say about Edwin Jackson. He -- not Popular Blogger X -- has proven that he guesses well on the Jacksons of the world.

Justin? Absolutely. Inside Pitch? Sure. Cool Papa Bell, Taro, and others who rose to the top locally? Well, to be fair, I haven't played with Cool Papa for 10 years. But so far I have a very good impression of his judgment.

Cool Papa, Taro, or any other roto champ wants to chime in the comments and say "I win all the time and here's where I am on Jackson and Brandon Morrow," then yeah. You bet.

What's the big deal about roto? Nothing. Except that these are the only guys who go back and scientifically measure their predictions after-the-fact. A rotisserie standings chart, at the end of the year, is extremely scientific. It's not perfect, but it's a valid form of metric on predictive validity.

Roto isn't the end of the discussion. But you have some better way to measure folks' claims to predict pitchers well?

Like Jack says, if we're sayin somethin that aint' true, do somethin about it. Show up and play Dr. D & co. at fantasy baseball next spring. Show everybody that you can pick pitchers, dude. Draft Edwin Jackson in the 11th round and see how the year goes for yer.

Any takers? :- )

=== Verdict Dept. ===

You don't need to limit yourself to the locals. You can check Shandler, Labadini, Olkin, Zwilling, Vogel, all those guys.

We all know what the decorated forecasters are going to say about Edwin Jackson 2010 before they even publish.

Look them up when they release. They'll all say the same thing.

Exciting young talent, had the breakthrough we'd been waiting for, fatigue in 2H not much concern. Needs followup to join elite, would like to see more. Don't go over $20, but don't let him slide in your league.

Dr. D happens to have a track record in fantasy baseball, too. His own official roto prediction? The same as above. But then, that's no special expertise on my part. It's pretty much the same thing you'll see everywhere.

Not meaning to be snooty, but Jackson isn't a tough call for a roto owner. He's an electric arm who just showed us what we want to see. He's not Roy Halladay, but he is mucho draftable.

Jack Zduriencik is, if the rumors be on track, valuing Jackson as a rotisserie champ would.

Part III

Comments

Further intepretation

of Matt's,
Today, the word is that the talks have stalled and are unlikely to ever be productive...the reason? Z doesn't want to give up a load of prospects for Jackson just as he's about to hit FA.
It seems each year, the principals use the media more and more to send each other signals... especially the agents, but also the GM's...
"Unlikely to ever be productive" means that unless Detroit or Boras are willing to give some ground, then there will be no trade... Jack is heavily endorsed by SSI on this front...
Not impossible of course that Detroit/Boras (whichever is holding up the line) will buy into this and say, "ok, here's what we can do"...

2-year extension

Dombrowski knows that he isn't getting much back for Jackson if he won't allow negotiation, especially in view of Bora$... he'll run into the same problemo with all 29 teams...
Boras also realizes that 2012 is a long ways away, a lot can happen before then, and that Jackson is no sure thing
.... A 2-year extension (2012-13) at (say) $12M per year, would lock in the riches for Jackson, assure his wealth for the rest of his life, and be quite tempting...
Seattle denizens are not too excited about Jackson and might tremble at the thought of $10-15M per for him... however, Jack Zduriencik is evidently giving Jackson more credit than are the fans...

Edwin Jackson is a strong buy

Edwin Jackson is a strong buy for me.
Copying Mike Roger's comments in a Ed.Jackson forum:
"He only went up ~30 innings, but he threw wayyyy more pitches. 2008 saw him throw 2955 pitches in 32 games for an average of 89.5 (call it 90).
2009 saw him throw 3454 in 33 games for an average 104.6 (call it 105).
Essentially 15 more pitches per outing which is a considerable amount, in my opinion."
Considering the dramatic fall-off in the second half in SwS% and Strike% probably due to fatigue, I like Ed.Jackson's shot at a breakout season in '10 (as long as you keep him fresh). 180 IPs strong is about right.

Little doubt that Jackson got gassed

He threw 25 great starts, and then hit the wall.
We can't average his stats and come up with the right picture. The first 25 starts are the ones that Zduriencik will be looking at.
That said, if you can't talk contract with Jackson, he could turn out to be a 1-year rental.

Boras as his agent is a HUGE

Boras as his agent is a HUGE minus. It makes him a gauranteed 1 or 2 year rental, and thats probably all you should be paying for.

Yep, that's the deal-breaker

... but I would think that you could extend Jackson, at (say) 2 x $12 or 3 x $12 for the no-arb years and that would be okay with Boras.
I suspect that Dombrowski is not allowing the contact, because afraid that Boras will blow the deal. My guess is, he's hoping to deal Jackson without the hassle of depending on Boras to be reasonable.
And if that's the case, I'd expect Dombrowski to relent shortly.

No go

There is absolutely no way that Boras will even consider a contract extension. Boras' number one rule, the Prime Directive that any player must agree to if they are going to hire him, is to go free agency as soon possible. That is where he can work his magic and secure a monster deal. Boras doesn't care one iota about how that might inconvenience the execs in Detroit, they mean nothing to him. He also does not "play it safe" by postponing free agency in exchange for guaranteed money. He wants to get the biggest deal possible, and that means getting his guy into the market at the youngest age possible, regardless of the risks.
One thing to keep in mind is that Boras is probably not motivated simply by a desire to make the most money for himself. He seems to genuinely hate the teams and be driven to make signing his clients a truly painful experience. He somewhat reminds me of record producer Steve Albini. Albini will work with artists signed to major labels, but will deliberately demand an exhorbinant price simply because he has no respect for the big record companies. Boras is likely similar. He probably thinks that the players deserve a far larger cut of the revenue stream and that the teams are essentially screwing the players so he is not going to accommodate them in anyway. If anything, he wants to make the baseball executives miserable. (This is why I could not fathom why anyone thought that Bavasi could work out more favorable deals with Boras clients because of some relationship the two might have even if such a thing were even ethical, which I don't think it is.)