Seattle Sports Insider

Trade Market One-Offs

Slap me silly, dept.

Posted by

6/11/14

I dunno why G-Money didn't simply retire after his 2014 draft recap, acknowledging the applause while slowly spinning around and strolling off the mound. But he followed up some Trade Option Musings, apparently in the spirit of a Bill Watterson-style cameo, and local Dodger fan "tjm" chimed in on Matt Kemp.

Matt Kemp

BaseballHQ was extremely bullish, projecting Kemp to slug .536 this season with 7.0 runs per 27 outs -- pointing out that Kemp's 2013 "expected Power Index" held up despite the shoulder problems.

"Once you show a skill, you own it," Ron says, sometimes.

.....

Dr. D sees Kemp as an Eric Davis-style player, fragile but with hitting talent that transcends the ups-and-downs on the baseball card.

TJM notes that Kemp doesn't get along with Don Mattingly, and that Kemp's ability seems bouncebackable, but frets about Kemp's love for the Hollywood scene.

No sweat, dude. We'll have Jay-Z on it right away!

Josh Willingham

Mo and MoJo both recommend. Hey, there's a new Jim Carrey trailer out ..... Mo and MoJo, was it called?

BaseballHQ said, before the year:

He's still really good
He's never going to see 500 AB's again (think Corey Hart - drd)

You see why I like Shandler. Willingham (1) missed April and May, and now (2) has an OPS+ of "Barry Bonds."

So he's Corey Hart, if Hart hadn't missed a year, and if Hart were real sharp right now.

.......

I swear, every time we criticize the M's at SSI, the announcers respond the next day. LOL. After our "somebody has to hit cleanup" shtick, they were all like "That's because Corey Hart is on the DL" on us.

Ya, if you get Corey Hart back, and he ever starts swinging good again -- say, August 27th with five weeks left -- it's gravy.

Starting Rotation?!

Ken Rosenthal quotes a rival GM, to the effect that Zduriencik wants a veteran starter?! Here's a cool article on it, MLB Daily Dish, just yestidday.

Supposing for the sake of laughs that the M's ownership committee was getting interested in on-field glory ... the lockdown SP's available are not few:

David blinkin' Price
Jeff somethin' Samardzija
Cliff euphemism' Lee
James somebodyslapme' Shields
Jason Hammel, Justin Masterson, guys who won't pitch Opening Day ahead of Felix, maybe, but still

The casual fan will go, "But you need Taijuan or K-Pax to get any of those guys." The erudite fan, you, has considered what we gave up for Cliff Lee the first time, before he made $27M per. And you have noticed that most ML teams have dozens of tasty prospects they can dish up. You certainly could give 4-5 good prospects, rather than two great ones, if you wanted to. Like, Ackley-Franklin-Elias-Leone-Gohara-Taylor aren't more desirable to Tampa than Taijuan and change? That is the kind of return that Billy Beane prefers when he cashes a 4th- or 5th-year ace.

Not that you'd do that from Seattle's perspective. You wouldn't. We're just dipping our chins against the "It Will Take TAIJAUNNNN!" garrote before it strangles the comments.

.....

And here's something, from this week, that says the Mariners ARE chasing the first three superstars above. Slap me silly and call me Sharpay, maybe they're going to spend a little of that cable money after all.

Supposing the M's did that -- three Cy Young winners, then ADD K-Pax, Taijuan and Elias -- would you be willing to suffer through the 2-1 games for a year or three?

Be Afraid,

Dr D

Blog:

Dr's R/X

Comments

Couple thoughts

I'm a big Ian Kennedy fan, as far as trade targets go. Dude's lighting up the radar gun in San Diego, and he's got the 9.5/2 K/BB to show for it. Should come a lot cheaper than Price or Samardzija - plus he's got another year of control left after this one. When he sucks, it's because he starts giving up homers, which was a big problem in Arizona but hasn't been nearly as troublesome in Petco (nor would it be in the Safe). Plus he's on the same team as Carlos Quentin, so a package deal could work well.
That Price/Samardzija/Lee article is anonymously authored, doesn't provide any sources, and packed full of run-ons. I find it a pretty un-credible source... that said, I believe full well that the Mariners are in on at least Price and Shark.

2 'fer 1

I was a big supporter of chasing Quentin during the off-season. He's a bit of a roll of the dice in that he's ALWAYS hurt, but he beats up lefties and while he's struggling in June he surely hasn't forgot how to hit.
If you could get both that would be interesting. Plug Quentin in a DH and hope you get 75 games out of him.
It's probably a more complicated trade than getting Willingham (or Kemp) and Kennedy may not be a huge step above Chris Young this year....that's assuming you get one of Walker or Paxton in the rotation soon and for the duration.
Doc is right on: We CAN get guys and not give up Walker or Paxton.....and probably keep Taylor, too.

LOL

To this pitching staff, the Mariners wish to add an ace. Amusing. :)
King Felix, Iwakuma, Price, Walker, Elias...Paxton waiting in the wings. HILARITY
Of course...our offense is still lousy. I'd like to get Quentin or Willingham as cheaply as possible.

We don't have to break the bank to add a hitter

Which is good, because I still don't want to empty the farm on a huuuuge deal (unless Stanton is available, then sayonara all of our prospects and the Ms better pay his salary for eternity).
Hultzen and Maurer have basically no value. None of the low-minors arms are doing well enough to be more than a throw-in. And Paxton and Walker have lowered value due to injury right now AND are guys we want to slot in on the big league level for a stretch run to the playoffs.
So what we have available to trade is hitting, weirdly.
Nick Franklin, Chris Taylor, DJ Peterson and Austin Wilson could all be a significant part of any deal. Sanchez is about the only starting arm we can reasonably part with off the farm. I don't want to trade Peterson or Wilson just yet, no thank you.
So if you're gonna trade Franklin and a bullpen arm, or even consider more than that, then you want a guy for multiple years. Willingham is not gonna earn a Franklin, you'd have to think (which speaks in his favor if we can get him for secondary pieces only). Quentin only plays 80 games a year, so he should be gettable and he's got at least one more year on the books after this one at a reasonable salary.
Minnesota is in last place in the AL Central - 3.5 out of first. They just bought Morales, they're gonna hang around for a bit and see what happens, then trade Kendrys and Willingham at the deadline. We might not wanna wait.
The problem with making early trades with a second Wildcard around is that a team has to be REALLY out of it. The Rays, Padres, Cubs, D-Backs and Phillies are all on the verge of being that kind of out of it, so we're looking at their players if we wanna make a move before July. The Mets, Rockies and Astros are close, if you can find anybody healthy on their teams to add.
So you're looking at Byrd, Quentin (full no-trade clause), Seth Smith, maybe Prado, Headley (having a miserable year thus far), Matt Joyce, maybe Dexter Fowler (only guy I can see coming off the Astros)... and not much else if you dont' want to wait another 4-7 weeks.
The Padres might not want Franklin with Gyorko there already, so a deal with them could get interesting even without Quentin's no-trade coming into play. But I definitely want a bat, preferrably right-handed. We've got several RH dudes on the way in the minors (and lefty Choi as soon as he pays his penance), but for the next couple years we'd better come up with some kind of solution.
I'd hate to waste another year of Felix and Kuma because we still can't put wood to ball.
~G

I agree with all of that

But also think Zobrist would be a perfect fit. Gap power, better from the right side. Everyday bat/Switch version of Bloomquist with plenty of experience in OF corners. Right now if Seager were unavailable for an extended period Bloomquist would have to cover and there goes the only real versatility. That seems to be Zobrist's worst position so probably still Bloomquist there but Zobrist could carry the versatility needed at that point. His .715 OPS in the Safe (140PA) isn't so great but I'd take that happily as his home half.
I mentioned in the previous trade post that the Rays are the one team that seems definitely out of it at this point. Their biggest need seems to be pitching that's closer than A ball and I think we could match up early as long as they're not adamant about getting a blue chip ready arm. That's what Price is for. There's a $7.5m option for 15 before he's a free agent. I figure he may be more available than other potential bats from Tampa because he's short term. Not so interested in Joyce who's also through 15 anyway.

we didn't...I was saying IF we did

since there is talk that the Mariners are trying to add an ace.

2 /cosigns, and a Q

/cosign the source is weak. As you say, it's there because the overall vibe (from various sources) is interesting, and that's a fairly enjoyable read.
/cosign that Ian Kennedy is undersold a little. He's an interesting discussion for Seattle.
........
Here's the question: you feel like, if they committed to Kennedy (or Hammel or Masterson), he could stay ahead of the three rookies in the rotation?

Zobrist ALWAYS on my roto teams :- )

McLemore de luxe. Something goes wrong with your starting lineup, he fixes it automatically, before you were aware anything was wrong.
Rays would be ideal trade pardners ... although the media portrays them as being one of the most unreasonable teams, in terms of demands...

A WAR is a WAR? Or no? :- )

... although the list of available players, Byrd-Quentin-Smith etc., dunno how many surprises we could run into, if we had more info. That's the only ask-er-isk from my standpoint.
The overall concept here is my own POV too. Either buy something you are going to be REALLY happy with, or else cobble together a deal in which you're not giving up anything painful. Would think that is obvious, though it isn't.
........
"Wasting another year" - a term that resonates with the shot-callers.
Supposing that the M's did trade for a Samardzija, and said "We'll work on getting Hart back, and mixing/matching Gillespie & co." Would that work for you?
Fangraphs author would say, "a WAR is a WAR." Samardzija adds 5 WAR to the #5 starter slot. Or no?
.........
My own perspective is "critical mass" in the lineup, bringing it to a point to where TOUGH pitching doesn't like to face it. But :: shrug ::

RIOS PLEASE!!!

Texas is out of it Rios should be had! He's another Cano type player but a 330 BA one.
1. Rios
2. Kemp
3. One of Shields/Price/Lee/Hamels

Uhhhh.. Matt

my bad

Yeah, probably.

I'm not real optimistic about Paxton making it back at all this year. If he does, that'll be right around when Elias starts approaching his all-time high for IP in a season. Balance of probability is that there's not gonna be a time when Paxton, Walker, and Elias are all in the major leagues together AND all better than Ian Kennedy's 9 K / 2.5 BB / 1 HR. Elias is nifty, but he's probably not that good even when firing on all cylinders. And if the M's want to make an upgrade over the offseason, the sad reality is that they're probably gonna have to flip one of their SPs, so next year wouldn't be a problem either.
Hammel I'd have some more questions about, and Masterson'll be pretty expensive on account of playing for a contender. But I'd bet on Kennedy outperforming at least one of Walker/Paxton/Elias for the rest of the year.