Maurer as a teen was not a fireballer. He threw high 80s as I recall - the 2008 draft tracker doesn't even have a summary on him. As I said in that article before Maurer ever played in a big-league game, he was a high school teammate of Gerrit Cole but was believed to be the far lesser prospect. Cole could light up a gun even then. That was before Maurer grew into his body and began throwing 98 MPH.
Maurer is busy converting his approach from "lesser-prospect-nibbling" to "big-league-swagger." Last year he was trying to trick opposing players, pitching backwards, throwing the fastball to the black and getting stiffed on the call...
And it wasn't just that he didn't think he belonged - he pitched that way in the minors. He came up through the system as a guy with a decent fastball, 4 pitches, and the ability to hit spots when necessary and out-think the hitters. The heat didn't come til he got finally healthy and it's been climbing ever since. Last year in his first brush with the pros he out-thought himself.
As far as I can tell, the advice he was given after that stint was, "your stuff is great, stop doubting it." His walks basically doubled (he was at 2.7 BB/9 for his career, and they went up over 5 in AAA) partly because he's throwing his yakker and umps won't call it for a strike. Consider it James Paxton syndrome, and it messed up his ERA in the minors too. He's also plowing people down with his fastball - his Ks skyrocketed to over 9 per 9 last year from a more-pedestrian 7.5 in AA, and he has DOUBLED that to 18 K/9 out of the pen this year.
Maybe that means he should be a closer. Maybe he's just working out the kinks as he returns from a back tweak in Spring Training.
Maurer should have a very nice career in the pen if he can't start, but right now, at still 23 years of age, I absolutely want him starting. When you watch a pitcher's Ks and walks balloon together, it usually means he's trying new things. When that same pitcher has had fine control the rest of his career, it normally means the Ks might stay but the walks will subside.
I'm still VERY high on Maurer, his 6+ ERA from last year aside. He doesn't have Noesi's head problems, and has better stuff besides. He's just a baby on the mound who needs a better approach... and may be finding one as we speak.
Hopefully we'll see a successful start to it this weekend in Florida.
~G
Amusingly, James had an article up Thursday, asking how much it means (or not) when a team is winning by large margins and losing by small ones. Perhaps you've heard of such teams.
The answer might seem obvious -- just look at Pythag -- but, not so fast. We know that good teams win by large margins, but ... does winning by large margins, early, mean that you're a good team? A causes B, but does B cause A ... especially when you're talking about the first 15 games?
Bill set it up with his usual colorful prose:
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The 1975 Cincinnati Reds were known as the Big Red Machine, because they wore Red uniforms and ground up opponents like a machine. The 1975 Reds, however, started the season 9 and 10. After sweeping the Dodgers in their first series they lost two straight to the Padres, 5 to 2 and 3 to 2. Salvaging the last game of that series, the Machine headed north to LA, where the Dodgers got even plus one: 5-2, 3-1, 7-6, 5-4. Returning to Cincinnati the Reds beat the Astros three times but lost the fourth, 7-6, and then lost one to the Giants, 5-4. After a couple of wins they lost to the Braves, 5-4, and then to the Astros, 6-4. They were 9 and 10.
The 2010 Pirates opened the season not 9-10 but 10-12; scattered among some wins they lost to the Dodgers 10-2, to the Diamondbacks 9-1 and 15-6, to the Giants 9-3 and 6-0. They beat the Reds three straight then (4-3, 5-3, 5-4), but then took it on the chin five straight times: 8 to 1, 8 to nothing and 20 to nothing to the Brewers, 4-3 and 5-2 to the Astros. They then lost two more 10-3 and 17-3, but then won three in a row, reaching 10-12.
It is early in the season, and one of the things we all do early in the season is to search relentlessly for signs that our team is better or worse than it appears to be. I am sure you figured out the pattern there; the Big Red Machine started out 9-10, but they lost those first ten games by a total of 16 runs, 34 to 50. The 2010 Pirates started out 9 and 12, but their first ten losses were by a combined score of 94 to 18, or 76 runs; their first twelve losses were by a total score of 121 to 24, or slightly more than eight runs a game.
Of course we all know that the 1975 Reds (108-54) turned out to be quite a bit better than the 2010 Pirates (57-105), and it is easy to say now that the early-season data reflects the difference; the Reds were losing, but just losing, whereas the Pirates were losing with some style. But is this really a predictive difference? Let us suppose that your hometown nine has about ten losses now, but that they’re not reallylosing; they’re just a run or two short sometimes. Should you feel better about that? Or does it really matter?
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He then did the study, which you would be able to read if you paid $3 per month at BJOL, and found, Yeah. Teams that are winning big early, and barely losing early, those teams tend to finish with good records at the end of the season.
The M's have scored +61 runs and allowed -50. Doing the math in my head real quick, that projects them to about 91 wins, give or take.
Of course, we have seen about 80% of all Mariner teams take some gut-punches in late April / early May, and just throw in the towel. It is the job of one Lloyd McClendon to ensure that doesn't happen; he has taken to yanking his young starting pitchers out of the game after one pitch, to see to this.
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According to Bob Dutton, it is Brandon Maurer who will likely get the start Sunday in Miami. In Lloyd McClendon's eyes, Maurer needs about fifteen decent pitches to take Erasmo Ramirez' job away from him (as soon as Iwakuma or Paxton return).
Maurer's stuff is hard to find. It can be so electric that he wears a rubber mouthpiece while pitching. If you're in the mood for a reminder as to how jaw-dropping each of his 4 pitches can be, HERE IS ONE SSI POSTGAME ARTICLE, here is a very early take on his funky mechanics and his similarities to Gil Meche, and here is an early report from Gordon. Please don't Google the article where I made him a Best Bet, on one game, and then pulled the Best Bet after one more. Bah Humbug. Excepting those 10 days, SSI would have a perfect record on BB's, so don't tell USSM about them.
My best guess as to his problem, last time around, was that he didn't establish his 94-99 MPH fastball before pulling the string -- he went through lineups first time around, dinking with soft stuff, and that got hit. That might or might not have any bearing on reality, but whatever the case, he has certainly blown down AAA lineups so far.
From a purely sabermetric standpoint, I was surprised to realize that he threw 90 IP in the bigs last year, with an excellent 7.0 / 2.7 control ratio. Funny thing, though -- the three "luck stats" sold him out. He allowed 15% homers per outfield fly, a .346 BABIP, and had a 65% strand rate on his runners. Normal is 11%, .300, and .70.
So, maybe just a little OF defense, and a little luck, and his ERA will be better than average with no changes in his pitching at all?
Comments
Which my daughter actually has. People can need a lot of time to turn their self image around - the image we have of ourselves is usually ingrained by the age of five, much less 21.
A rather incisive analysis even by your standards, G. I'll be watching Maurer with respect to this idea, whether he learns to "bully" people with his power game or not.
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You know, but others might not, that last year we ran a comp between Maurer and Luke Hochevar, who became a beast once shifted to the pen.