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The Roto Recommendation

Do not move Walker up, or down, your roto draft list at this point.

That is, if you have a Feb. 15 draft for some reason, draft Walker at the same slot you'd have drafted him a week ago.  The day-to-day news out of Arizona is not bothersome.

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The Diagnosis

Ryan Divish, astutely, lasers in on the fact that the Mariners have not slowed, much less shut down, Walker's throwing program.

Taijuan is not a Hisashi Iwakuma or Cole Hamels, a TOR starter on which the team is counting.  Pitchers like that, might get pushed, and gambles might be taken.  But the Seattle Mariners (TM) want young pitchers to Pay Their Dues (TM), to Prove That They Deserve It (TM), and they genuinely, authentically have not assumed a thing about Taijuan Walker in their 2014 rotation.  

If Taijuan needed a month off, they'd shrug and give him two months off, the same way they would Erasmo Ramirez.  That's the more so, since Taijuan has not yet pulled any Michael Pineda action.  Every year is a complete re-boot, you understand.  Michael Pineda came into February, blew down hitters, and proved under the Arizona sun that he was the #2 pitcher in the organization behind Felix Hernandez.  There wasn't any choice there.

In the M's minds, at least, here's plenty of choice on Taijuan and K-Pax -- not just on a theoretical level, but on a "dirt under your spikes" level down there.  Two words:  Scott Baker.  And his ilk.

If the Mariners haven't even delayed Taijuan, then I refuse to spend freak-out points.

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The Injury Syndrome

That said, Taijuan is a much, MUCH bigger injury risk than is James Paxton.  A pitcher's shoulder is in transition until he's ... well, James Paxton's age.  Bill James once complained to me that the Royals seemed to have four Taijuan Walkers* coming into AAA every year, but ... "90% of the time they'd get hurt before they ever actually contributed anything to the major league club."

Taijuan's a kid.  K-Pax isn't.  One is a high school guy.  The other is a college guy -- a college guy who had a nice leisurely buffer period before he got here.

As a completely separate issue, it is a major factor that Paxton is left handed (and therefore naturally more centrifugal and oily, as Moe would put it).

As a completely separate issue, it is a major factor that Paxton uses his lower body MUCH better than Taijuan does.  Taijuan's got a crackly, angry stress on his arm every time he throws a pitch.  No surprise that his arm glares at him, as he loosens it up to begin the year.... it will probably do that every season of his career.  He will always have to watch the arm.

Jack Zduriencik is well aware of this distinction.  How about a moment of appreciation for Z, in shutting Taijuan down so early in 2013?!  While letting K-Pax throw, you'll notice.  Sometimes, the guys who have been on the field 30 years, they've noticed a few things we haven't.

Okay, anyway, many starting pitchers, they're arm-y and they're fine.  Samardzija's that way; Randy Johnson was.  But don't minimize the issue.

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Dr's R/X

The blog-o-sphere has taken it as a "given" that Taijuan is worth far more than is James Paxton.  It has always seemed to me that if you could only protect one of them in an expansion draft, you would protect Paxton.  That sounds crazy, but check back in four years.

Taijuan isn't hurt THIS time* but the chances are real good that he'll GET hurt.  That's the reality.  The good news:  the Mariners are very, very sensitive to all of these ideas, even more so than most other MLB teams are.  If anybody can get Taijuan to age 25 without an injury, it's probably them.  I know that sounds weird, but let's be even-handed about it.

The moral of the story:  don't undersell that K-Pax kid.  His kind, they don't come around very often.

BABVA,

Dr D