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Q.  Where is Dr. D, really, on the importance of Taijuan having great stats in MLB 2013, if he's going to have a shot at being a sensation in 2014?

A.  Very unlikely he'll finish at the extremes -- super super great, or horrible.  And that would mean his debut stats wouldn't define his future all that tightly.

I'm not even going to be watching for ERA, as such, though everybody else will be.... :- )  (Let Taijuan give up 5 runs tomorrow, and even if he fans 8 guys, the sabermetricians will be howling; ERA is hard to shake.)  What I'm going to be watching for is the tools, the skill set, what his game could be if he executed it properly.

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Q.  Does he compare well to Pineda at the same point?  

A.  On the scouts' clipboards, Taijuan is way ahead of Pineda at the same point.  

On SSI's clipboard, he isn't, because Pineda had a unique arsenal that gave him a weirdly high chance of success.  You locate a 97 MPH fastball on the black, there isn't a hitter on earth who can do anything with it ... and you add in that change-slider, well, the pitcher holds the ball.  Don't care if it is Josh Hamilton hitting.

And:  two pitches are much easier to master than four.  You can't expect Taijuan to splash like Michael Pineda was destined to do.  (Here are Pineda's game logs:  he had a 2+ ERA and 9+ strikeouts after 2 starts, after 5, after 10 ...)

Not only is Taijuan a 4-pitch man, but he's a 4-pitch boy.  He hasn't had time to get his arms around his own game.  I mean, maybe he's done it, but it would be in spite of the problem.

I'd be quite surprised if Taijuan reproduced Michael Pineda's splash.  And it won't worry me if he doesn't.  We're watching for the raw ability.

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Q.  Under what circumstances might he produce the splash?

A.  If he has an overwhelming fastball, and can throw the curve for strikes with good arm action, then sure, we might have some fun...  that was the case with Felix at age 19.

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Q.  How about the comparison to Felix?

A.  Much more of an apples-to-apples situation ... Felix was

• Solid in his very first start (5 IP, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K)
• Epic in his next four starts (1+ ERA, tons of strikeouts)
• Human (but good) the rest of the 2005 season
• Underperforming the next two years

But Felix had a very specific Achilles' heel -- over-challenging LH hitters out-and-over with a tailing fastball that had a very poor shape.  Nobody in the world, other than SSI :- ) triangulated the overconfidence issue.  Hitters Bobby Ayala'ed him, stalking that one Dead Red centered pitch per AB.

We don't expect Taijuan to show this at all, this total lack of any sense of danger.  He's not a happy-go-lucky, what-me-worry type the way Felix is.

Still ... Felix was good, of course, even when he was bad.  And he was a flamethrowing 4-pitch kid who debuted very young.

Felix' situation, as well as everything else we know about Taijuan ... if Taijuan can command his pitches, he'll do well we're quite sure.

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Q.  Think he'll run a 2+ ERA for us?   :: gak ::

A.  Isn't it funny?  Even the sabermetricians focus on runs allowed, in the short term, in spite of themselves.  ERA is absolutely hypnotizing!

We remember Pineda's first spring game, 5 IP, 4 ER against the Dodgers, wasn't it?  He had 15 swings-and-misses in like 70 pitches, and the biggest blogs all had him going back to AAA after that game.  ERA, man.

I mean, Erasmo Ramirez has 42 strikeouts and 14 walks in 48 innings, and to hear people tell it, he is hanging on to the screen door by his fingernails.  His ERA isn't there yet, don'tcha know.

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Q. So ... maybe K and BB?  How much should we use stats, vs tools, these first three starts?

A.  10% stats, 90% tools ... unless the results are extreme in either direction.

Our intuition would have steered us right on James' study -- Taijuan's debut stats probably won't matter much as to his 2014 projection.  But if he does have an extreme result, first three starts, that will be important.  It's when he's weirdly GOOD or weirdly BAD that the ERA does matter...  if you pick up a deck of cards, shuffle, and the first six cards off the deck are spades, you've got a problem.

Isn't that about what you would have guessed?  But thanks to Bill for triangulating the history.  One more chip into all of our pattern-recognition banks.

The delivery, the arsenal, the makeup, that will be more interesting.  

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Q.  The right sense of proportion would be?

A.  It's not every day that your hometown baseball team is the one rolling out the best pitching prospect in baseball.  And it's here -- the very day.  Christmas Eve.  Enjoy the moment, boys :- )

Right now Taijuan Walker is pencilled into the rotation for your 2014 Seattle Mariners.  If you can't smile about tomorrow's game, you oughta stop watchin' hardball, my man.

BABVA,

Dr D