.

The Right Yujin, Dept.

As usual, the vibe from inside the industry makes 29 kinds of sense to SSI.  This from MLB Trade Rumors:

• The Mariners will also be "a factor" for Tanaka, a baseball official tells Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News.  “They have a following in Japan. They enjoyed what they had when Ichiro (Suzuki) was on the team.  They want the chance for moves like getting [Robinson] Cano to pay off.  And they envision [Felix] Hernandez paired with Tanaka at the top of the rotation," the official said.

You might be surprised at the tendency for large Fortune 500 organizations to develop personalities.  That second sentence captures the M's front office perfectly, as a corporate organism that emphasizes comfort and enjoyment.

The Ichiro factor, and the Felix factor, those were the two main sources of baseball "enjoyment" for Lincoln and Co. since Gillick and Piniella left.  Both players are/were "good actors," were a pleasure to have in class, players that the executives could embrace wholeheartedly and joyfully.  

Both were, of course, ballplayers that the front office could market to rabid fan sectors.  You can see for yourself how much gusto the Mariners have shown in catering to those fan sectors - turning all of Safeco Field into a giant yellow King's Court, wallowing in his "Felix Dance," and so on.  

You and I think in terms of Tanaka's xFIP compared to Kuroda's, and Iwakuma's, but the Mariners think in terms of ability to connect with Pacific Rim fans.  Iwakuma is good, but Tanaka has star power; he is likely the Mariners' last chance, for a while, to replicate the Ichiro Experience.  The M's have a King's Court for Felix starts ... Tanaka's day-of-game promotions could rival those.

You don't care that much about the King's Court, you're thinking.  You should be thinking, "How much does HOWARD LINCOLN care about the King's Court?"

There are other things to do at Safeco besides just watch a baseball game.  I read it on the 'net.

.

How Much?

Tomorrow's news today at SSI.  :- )

Other sites are speculating, breathlessly, that Tanaka's contract could approach $100M.

That would be correct, with one small tweak, that being if you replaced the "1" with a "2."  Well ... closer to $200M than to $100M, by the time you include the posting fee.*

*$131M contract + $20M = closer to $200M than $100M.  Could be more.

.............

Tanaka, as an asset, is one notch down from Felix and Verlander, since he hasn't yet proven it here.  CC Sabathia got $160M for 8 years, quite a while ago, and then Felix and Verlander gave serious home town discounts to clock in at $175-180M.  Tanaka's easily a $20M/year pitcher, maybe more, and at age 25 he's looking at 7-8 years.

Lots of serious analysts ::coughtonyblenginocough:: are complaining that no matter how good the free agent is, you're still being stupid, because the free agent is over 30 and you're buying his decline.  Well, kiddies, here is a free agent who is 25.  That, and the fact that 10 teams will be SERIOUSLY bidding, will helium the contract into next week.

..............

Should the M's pay?

Nobody is writing about where the industry's revenues are going.  For a long time, the Manny Ramirez and ARod contracts sailed high because the revenues and salaries were going up by 10% (or more) a year.  As Bill James put it, in that era you felt like WHATEVER you paid a Manny Ramirez, it would work out fine.

Now, then, we've gone through a short spell of relatively flat contracts, and our calibration is off.

But we're on the crest of another huge inflationary period.  Today's prices will seem cheap in three years.  Precisely because of that factor, this (and next) winter is the time for the Mariners to make their big purchases.

On Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Felix Hernandez, etc., the question wasn't a million here or a million there.  The question was whether he was your player, or somebody else's.

............

How about the Kenta Maeda factor? ... well ... 

NEXT

.