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Cool Papa Bell stays true to his namesake, and glorifies the mysterious slugger who comes out of the mysterious Cuban League.
Cubans were out of fashion for a while. After Billy Beane bid $200M, in Oakland A's dollars, for Yoenis Cespedes, and after Yasiel Puig hit .400-and-plenty for the Dodgers, we're guessing that Abreu will be a hot commodity this season. Estimates are that he'll cost around $60M, setting the record for an international signing -- but still costing much less than an MLB All-Star who is on the open market.
It's possible that 10% or 20% of our readers hadn't noticed that Kendrys Morales is a Cuban. We recommend that you sort this b-ref.com list by runs scored.
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Jose Abreu is a Cuban who has like 300 at-bats in international play, meaning that he's less mysterious than most Cubans. In the 2013 WBC, for example, Abreu hit .360/.385/.760. It's 25 at-bats, but it's a typical 25 at-bats for Abreu, internationally.
His batting lines on the island are hilarious -- in 2010-11 he hit .453/.597/.986 and per 162 games, he racked up 81 home runs and 229 RBI. HEH! ... after that, the stats essentially distort; if Conan the Barbarian hits 20 homers in his first month next year, the game then changes around him.
Suffice it to say that Abreu was much, much too good for Cuba; if you put David Wright in Cuba, and on Cuba's national teams, his track record would look about like Abreu's. It's not proof, which is why Abreu won't cost $200M.
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Like Grizzle says, there is discussion about whether Abreu has a "slider-speed" bat. This is one thing that the scouts will have to answer for us. They've had a good, long look at him. If they can't answer that one for us, what are they doing there?
If Abreu ever became an M, we'd have to scurry over to YouTube and tear apart the vids there. I can certainly see what people are talking about; Abreu sits back on the pitches and takes a loooooong look at them. Whether that's a Manny Ramirez syndrome or a Quad-A player syndrome, I dunno.
Whichever team bids for Abreu, its scouts will have signed off on the issue. We'll see.
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As usual, the Marlins are presumed to be the front-runners for a "sexy" Cuban, with the New York Mets not far behind. Nobody knows whether Abreu can play a decent 1B, though, so some scouts have him pegged as a DH/1B type. Know any AL teams that could use a 100-RBI DH/1B type?
This is about 10 degrees off subject, but Peyton Manning is reminding us all about --- > UPSIDE with risky players. Lots of teams wrung their hands and worried, "What if he's not healthy?" The Denver Broncos wondered, "What if we wind up so good that the Team Visualization Charts don't plot our helmet on them any more?"
Yasiel Puig came over and OPS+'ed 160, as a 22-year-old (?) rookie for the Dodgers. It's feasible that Jose Abreu is better than Giancarlo Stanton. It's not fashionable to mention that fact, we know. What's fashionable is to gravely nod over the downside, to be More Objective Than Thou. ... when Peyton Manning was a free agent, we didn't see many fans even talking about the possibility of his bringing 40 points a game with him. They were too busy being objective.
Going into 2013, Abreu was not on BaseballHQ's list of top international prospects, presumably because nobody expected him to succeed in defecting. (How come no Americans ever defect to Cuba?)
We do notice Luiz Gohara on their list, though...
Regardless of the level of competition, Abreu normally lead all Cubans in OBP and XBH... which are two things the M's need. Further, since Abreu has out performed Puig and Cespedes, then Abreu's floor most likely will have a much higher floor than those two.
Now there are reports questioning Abreu's age... but even if he is 29, he should have 5 years worth $12M in him.
And again just to highlight the BIG PLUS, Abreu is right handed!!!
If Morales were sent down to AA (or A+, whatever the Cuban League equates to), would he hit.450-.600-1.000?
Don't know. I doubt it. So Abreu's starting evaluation is somewhere around there.
His swing reminds me a bit of Clemente. Which is not to say that's how good he is, mind you.
If you could get him for 5x$12M, would you rather do that or an Ellsbury 5x$20M?
Gimme the Cuban kid, personally. What would his floor be? .250-.300-.420, with 20 homers? That's his crash and burn floor, maybe. Man, that was Saunders '12. Or nearly so.
I like discounts. They let you buy other stuff.
Oh, he won't be ours. And he will probably go north of the $60M mark.
But he's well worth the $60M gamble.
You know who would hit like that in AA or A+? Carlos Peguero. And that is the downside risk - not that he hits .250-.300-.420 with 20 HR in Seattle. It's that he's a AAAA player that can never make the transition to MLB pitching. I do some risk analysis in real life and if you don't peg the downside risk properly, you will make all kinds of bad investments. The idea that his downside is Smoak while his upside is Papi will lead someone to that $60+ million contract. If the downside is Carlos Peguero, then that figure will drop. If the upside is more like Napoli than Papi, it drops further. As Doc says, that's what they pay McNamera for.
Like those horrible Ford commercials "AND" is better. Add Abreu AND Ellsbury and now you are talking. We've got the available payroll and the $140+ million cable revenue stream coming. Grab the table setter and roll the dice on the MOTO right-handed power bat. And pick me up Timmy Lincecum while you're at it.
My offseason Free Agent recipe is pretty targeted -
Ellsubry 5x$20
Abreu 4x$12
Lincecum 3x$15
FA Catcher 1x$1
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Giving you:
Rotation:
Felix
Iwakuma
Lincecum
Paxton
Walker
Bullpen (all young and free):
Ramirez
Capps
Pryor
Medina
Furbush
LaFromboise
Farquahar
Line-up v RHP:
1 - CF - Ellsbury (L)
2 - SS - Miller (L)
3 - 3B - Seager (L)
4 - DH - Abreu (R)
5 - RF - Gutierrez (R)
6 - 1B - Smoak (S)
7 - C - Zunino (R)
8 - LF - Saunders (L)
9 - 2b - Franklin (S)
Bench
IF/OF - Ackley (L)
IF/OF - Romero (R)
OF - Almonte (S)
C - FA
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Total projected line-up costs: $100 million.
Defense? An outfield of Saunders / Ellsbury / Gutierrez may be the best in the league.
Speed? You've got legitimate runners at the top and bottom of the order.
Pitching? Loaded. Ramirez becomes the swing man, and you'll have your pick from likes of Maurer, Beavan, Noesi, and Carraway to spot start, and Moran, Smith, Hill, Ruffin, etc. to relieve.
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Not sold on Smoak - play Abreu at 1B and sign old man river Ibanez to DH. Guti gets hurt, move Almonte into his spot. Franklin continues to struggle? Play Ackley at 2b.
My favorite thing? Not giving up on the young guys before we figure out who's gonna rise to the top. We'd still have a loaded farm to make a move if and when the team is in contention come next July.
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And. And is better.
- Ben.
Watch this video of 50 Crush Davis HRs and tell me which ones he really "got the bat around" on and demolished with batspeed. Tell me which 98 mph fastballs were in that mix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQZtRNjD9Ms
Davis has a slider-speed bat. And he hits the ball 500 feet with it. Davis was not patient at the plate, he just started getting pitched around. He struck out a billion times, while leading the league in HR, RBI and total bases.
I'm up for that risk. We can absolutely sign Abreu. He hits monster HRs, and will strike out, but his moving parts are minimal. He might have a huge hole in his swing, but no one in Cuba has found it yet. And even if he does, so what? You don't think Thome had a hole in his swing with that tomahawk death chop of his? He didn't lead the league in strikeouts 3 different times because he had 100% plate coverage. Most HR guys have holes. It's hard to find Prime Pujols or Big Hurt, y'know?
But I would crawl over hot coals for a RH masher, and I like Abreu at 60 million over Ellsbury at 120 million for SURE.
Gotta roll the dice on somebody. The one thing the system does NOT have is a guaranteed masher. We've got some doubles guys and some walks guys and some tools guys, but we don't have anybody you can point to and say "40 homers. Book it."
Since Abreu only costs us cash, not prospects, he's a great way to fix that hole. Assuming he can hit. Of course, the Angels assumed Hamilton could hit. All free agents are risky, and nobody's the perfect risk.
Take the masher you can get.
~G
What is Choo projected to run in terms of a contract? Is Abreu + Choo even a possibility?
By all accounts, the Mariners will spend just under $50 million in 2014 - assuming that they let Guti and Morales go.
Then even by conservative estimates, the Mariners 2014 player budget will be at minimum $90 million.
Assuming we over spend for Abreu at $14 million per year, we will have at least $26 million for others.
My guess is Choo goes for $18 million per year... but until teams start spending, who knows what the market will bear this year.
Supposedly, there are at least 10 teams with over $30 million to spend this off season, so I expect prices to be higher than expected.
I had originally included a couple of paragraphs on Peguero in my post. I'm not absolutely done with the guy. Hey, Chris Davis just struck out 34 times/100 AB's. You can live with strikeouts.....if a guy hits the ball out of the park enough. Pegs is not good at all against lefties. But in AAA he's rocked righties, slugging-wise. I would still give the guy a ton of ST whacks and hold on for a plateau leap. One plateau gets him into low-level Dave Kingman territory. At that level, he's a cheap masher. Kingman's big leap came about age 30. Prior to that he was a .220-.290-470 guy. Based on nearly 1000 AAA AB's, and not just 200 MLB ones, Peguero might get to that type of level. I'm not done with him.
According to the guessing here.
Three management guys guessed 4-5 years at $14-15M per; Scott Boras guessed $1 billion for 20 years.
Sounds quite reasonable to me (the $15M, that is). Kendrys money for a .400 OBP player? Choo's lifetime runs per 27 is 6.9.
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When the real FA market shakes out, you've got to have options A, B, C ... Z. Not often you get your first choice.
Ackley and Almonte in the McLemore and Javier roles? Gimme.
Also, anything that deploys Taijuan and K-Pax behind three TOR's is moderately acceptable from where I sit.
Mine looks like this:
0. Pence: Why has he not returned our calls?
1. Choo: Every bit of prime John Olerud but faster.
2. Cruz: 28 home runs make a compelling argument.
3. Ellsbury: Nice player might be able to teach Condor how to soar.
4. Beltran: Legends never die, but sometimes they get old.
5. Abreu: The 2014 season is too important to take a flyer on high upside guys but he looks good on paper.
resigned with SF for 5/90 so that is why he has not returned any calls :)
edit: I guess with him listed as "0" you already knew this!
Abreu 1B, Morales DH I like a good deal better.
One thing that concerns me is spending all this money and leaving the bullpen untouched. A sure way to flush $200M or so down the toilet. Blown leads and blown close, winnable games all over the place. If you don't fix this bullpen, don't even bother with the rest of the club. Might have to sacrifice a Lincecum in the rotation for 2 proven bullpen studs. Or just add a couple of those as well at the expense of just more $$$.
I had read that he has a hole in the outside with breaking pitches. Detriments like that are only as effective as the pitchers location. I can't recall where I read it. It's not as though you couldn't name dozens of all Stars who had similar issues, especially Latin guys.
The best breakdown I've read on him also said this (paraphrasing, it's been awhile)
He'll have some trouble with ace velocity which includes some #2s and relievers but feast on back end pitching to get his 30+ HR. That is still valuable.
That makes sense to me. It was talking about expectations and not peak or ceiling. Maybe better, maybe worse. If we're talking about a $20 million a year bat that's too much pay to risk that. That's why he's not a $20m bat, yet. I don't think the downside is as low as Peguero or comparable. That's not what it sounds or looks like. I do think the ceiling is very high. Offensively. Defensively it sounds like he's similar to Morales but healthier. Maybe he's somewhat better.
I don't think Ellsbury and Abreu is much different from Ellsbury and Morales. Abreu is simply more volatile while Morales has a higher floor and lower ceiling. The mid range/probability seems closer to the same now. Betting on Abreu hitting above the mid range is beyond me but the bet might be less annually than Morales. If it's more I'd think that says the median or probability is possibly higher to enough front offices to battle. 2 or more. It might just be a couple teams looking for a Puig/Cespedes type win.
I'm convinced that spending money on a relief pitcher is a fools errand. The top 15 FA contracts given out last year (totalling nearly $90 for 2013) produced 4.1 Fangraphs WAR. And 3.3 of that was Koji Uehara. Seriously, the market for relief pitchers is just littered with high paid guys producing negative value:
Pitcher
Years
Contract
2013 WAR
Rafael Soriano
2
$28.00
0.5
Mariano Rivera
1
$10.00
1.5
Brandon League
3
$22.50
-1
Jonathan Broxton
3
$21.00
-0.4
Brett Myers
1
$7.00
-0.7
Jeremy Affeldt
3
$18.00
-0.5
Mike Adams
2
$12.00
-0.4
Kyuji Fujikawa
2
$9.20
0.2
Koji Uehara
1
$4.25
3.3
Joakim Soria
2
$8.00
0.2
Sean Burnett
2
$8.00
-0.1
Ryan Madson
1
$3.50
0
Octavio Dotel
1
$3.50
0
Jason Grilli
2
$6.75
1.5
Vicente Padilla
1
$3.25
0
1 of those contracts seems like a good deal to me. Okay, two (Grilli). The rest were busts or Mariano Rivera.
Stay away. Stay far far away.
- Ben.
Is not looking like playoff caliber. It was terrible this year from what I saw. Were you pleased with the performance of the bullpen you listed above? So much that you want to roll with it again in 2014?
I don't care how much/little is spent, if the do it by trade but we need 2 or 3 reliable arms in the bullpen. Some of the names on the FA list above were known to be quite volatile like Broxton and League or on the downside of their career. Soria coming off major injury. Here is a list or targets I put together last month:
" I'd like us to reach into our pockets and spend money on 2 good reliable RP. Guys who have been somewhat consistently performing for years including 2013 who we should be able to count on like Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, Javier Lopez, Boone Logan, Koji Uehara, Craig Breslow, Joe Smith, Edward Mujica to name a few potential FA targets. I'm sure there are plenty of nice trade targets as well if that's what it takes.
Please give us someone(s) who we can plug into the bullpen NOW M's. No guys coming off injury. No "main addition" being a reclimation project. And most of all, please, no Kameron Loe."
"He'll have some trouble with ace velocity which includes some #2s and relievers but feast on back end pitching to get his 30+ HR. That is still valuable."
And that is just about what everybody does. Nobody feasts on Kershaw or Verlander or Felix. Well, practically nobody. If we're not signing Abreu because he doesn't feast on Verlander then who are we signing?
That's like saying we shouldn't extend 'Kuma because he has trouble getting Trout out.
moe
Ramirez xFIP 4.26
Capps xFIP 3.56
Pryor xFIP 2.85!
Medina xFIP 3.85
Furbush xFIP 3.37
LaFromboise xFIP 3.52
Farquahar xFIP 2.40!
Replacing Kameron Lowe, Blake Beavan, Hector Noesi, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Lucas Luetge with the above is an upgrade, and by xFIP metrics a significant one. And it doesn't cost you anything.
Spending money on bullpen relief is like putting money down on the green squares of roulette and getting only 1 to 1 returns. Bad odds, don't do it.
- Ben.
I don't feel super confident in any of them. Overall it is a good, young group to select the best performers from. The actual on field 2013 results of a couple of the most key guys (Capps,Farquhar) were 2 runs or so worse than xFIP. From what I observed they both have a tendency to implode. This could resolve with experience. Or not. Farquhar had a good stretch the last couple months. Justin Smoak has done that many times as well. I don't want to pin my entire bullpen hopes on underachievers turning things around. It would be nice if we could acquire 2 reliable arms that have put up some consistent numbers and let the rest battle it out for the remaining spots. I don't believe we're going to have to lay out $40M deals to do this, money should be a minor concern.
Overall the group has potential but surely not so good that they don't warrant improvement. One or two guys at $3-6M a year isn't exciting but it helps stabalize a volatile group. If I'm running the club. It sucks watching our offense finally scrape together enough runs to get Felix a lead after 7 only to watch *whoever* come in and relinquish the lead in the 8th. And it happens over and over and over again. For years on end.
Anything under $15m annually seems cheap. We'll see, just not for the Mariners.